When Handicapping Instincts Trump the Analytics: Two Case Studies
Successful sports handicapping requires not simply assessing teams but analyzing how your assessment of a team relates to the lines put out by the bookmakers. One of the challenges in addressing this conundrum relates as when to rely on the deeper analytics to drive a conclusion versus trusting one’s instincts from years of experience reacting to oddsmakers posted numbers. Two illustrative examples of this took place during a two-day span in the NFL this month.The Detroit Lions traveled to Houston to play the Texans as a 3.5-point road favorite for Sunday Night Football on November 10th. I do not like the “sell high” or “buy low” rationales in sports betting. I think it is a flawed analogy to suggest sports teams are like stocks — as if their performances are destined to rise and fall like a price in the stock market. I also do not think the betting market (or the stock market) is necessarily rational. So-called “sharps” lose all the time — and square bettors win their share of games (which keeps them gambling). Bettors “selling high” on the Detroit Lions would likely be bankrupt by Week 10 of this NFL season considering they are on a 33-12 ATS run over the last three seasons — and these bettors thinking they are sharp by only fading them away from Ford Field would have lost 12 of their last 14 bets. Those caveats aside, we may have been seeing the peak of the Lions' perceived value by the betting market after their resounding victory in the rain against the Packers — and that presented us some point spread value with the line being pushed past some key numbers. But that dynamic was not enough for me to endorse the Texans in that contest. The second factor that persuaded me was simply that Detroit’s underlying numbers suggest their recent success will be difficult to replicate. For starters, the Lions were thriving in winning the turnover battle. They scored on a 27-yard interception returned for a touchdown the previous week — and that event helped obscure that their defense surrendered 411 yards and that they actually got outgained by -150 net yards. Despite their 7-1 record, Detroit were only outgaining their opponents by +12.5 net Yards-Per-Game at the time. The Lions led the NFL in net turnover margin — and they were averaging a +1.4 net turnover margin per game. That dynamic was simply unsustainable as the season moves on. In their last five games, Detroit had forced 12 turnovers while committing just one turnover. Now I didn’t expect Jared Goff to become midseason Sam Darnold suddenly, but a few interceptions here, a few lost fumbles there, and fewer takeaways along the way quickly evens out that recent turnover edge — and the Lions' meager edge in yards results in them being in coin flip games. On the other hand, we were catching Houston a bit undervalued relative to what I expect to be long-term market expectations. They outgained the Jets the previous week by +29 net yards despite a 21-13 loss. The Texans had not paid off bettors in their last two games — but they had then covered the point spread in 4 of their last 5 games after failing to cover the point spread in two straight games. The team expected wide receiver Tank Dell to return to the field for this game. I expected plenty of touches from running back Joe Mixon who is averaging over 100 rushing YPG this season. Detroit can be run on — opposing rushers were generating 4.8 Yards-Per-Carry against them at the time. And then there is second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud who still is exhibiting extreme home/road splits in his young career. In 12 games on the road, Stroud is completing only 60.7% of his passes with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. But in his 12 starts at home in his career before that game, he enjoyed a 66.4% completion percentage with 22 touchdown passes and five interceptions. Houston was 4-0 this season at home with an average winning margin of +4.0 PPG. They were outgaining their guests by +109.0 net YPG due to the strength of their defense. The Texans were holding visiting teams to just 274.3 YPG which is resulting in only 18.3 PPG. They ranked second in the NFL in Defensive DVOA using the metrics by the Football Outsiders. And, by the way, the 383.3 total YPG they average at home which was more than the Lions’ 379.3 YPG that they generated on the road going into that game. Houston raced out to a 23-7 lead going into halftime of that game. While they did not score in the second half and lost the game by a 26-23 score, they still covered the +3.5 point spread. The next day for Monday Night Football, the Los Angeles Rams hosted the Miami Dolphins as a 2.5-point favorite. This was a fishy line. Miami was on a three-game losing streak and has won only two games this season — and wide receiver Tyreek Hill was a game-time decision. The Rams were riding a three-game winning streak and were getting healthy on both sides of the ball, especially with wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacau back from their injuries. The Dolphins were crushing their bettors this season — they were getting outscored by -8.2 Points-Per-Game relative to the point spread. The betting public was all over the Rams that night. At DraftKings, 80% of the money and 77% of the bets are on Los Angeles — and yet most books including DraftKings had not even moved the Rams to a field goal favorite? I smelled a rat — and I decided to fade the public. I saw enough to justify this decision. Tua Tagovailoa completed 25 of his 28 passes last week. They outgained the Bills by +48 net yards while generating 373 total yards of offense. In the previous two weeks since Tagovailoa returned from the concussion protocol, their offense ranked second in Expected Points Added per play on offense. The Dolphins defense had played a bit better than expected as well. Despite giving up 30 points last week, they held the Bills to just 325 yards of offense. They were only giving up 303.1 total YPG — and they were holding their home hosts to 319.5 total YPG and 20.0 PPG. Miami came into the game desperate — and they had covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a loss by six points or less. I appreciated that the Los Angeles offense was much more potent when both wide receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua were healthy and on the field. But the Rams were still banged up on their offensive line with right tackle Rob Havenstein out and right guard Kevin Dotson questionable. The Rams got outgained by -58 net yards in their win against the Seahawks the previous week — but a +2 net turnover margin including a 103-yard interception return for a touchdown helped them overcome that yardage deficit. It was telling that Los Angeles had failed to cover the point spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home when favored by up to seven points. They had also failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games in November.Miami raced out to a 10-6 lead at halftime and went on to win the game by a 23-15 score to pull off the upset victory. Proving once again, sometimes the number presented by the bookies tells a more compelling story than the narrative that the deeper analytics appear to be telling us. Best of luck — Frank.
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