AFC Win Totals Six Pack
by Matt Fargo
Saturday, Jul 25, 2026All win totals courtesy of DraftKings SportsbookLos Angeles Chargers Under 9.5 +115There is a lot of hype on this team and justifiably so. The Chargers won 11 games last season, have an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert, brought in Mike McDaniel as offensive coordinator, have a healthy offensive line and possess a top ten defense. This number does seem low based on that outline and while expectations are sky high, it is no cakewalk. Los Angeles faces the seventh toughest schedule and it is even more demanding based on the setup. They have a brutal travel schedule with close to 24,000 miles and according to PFF, they have the NFL worst rest differential with 24 fewer days of rest that their opponent and that adds up especially with a tough end to the season. Additionally, the Chargers face four teams coming off a bye.New England Patriots Under 10.5 -140This is the juiciest total we are playing and it is not that big of a number in reality to catch a number this big. The Patriots are coming off an unexpected run to the Super Bowl after going 14-3 and dethroning the Bills in the AFC East and coming even close to that is unlikely. They played one of the easiest schedules last season and now they will be playing a first place schedule that is much more challenging. One big reason for their success was the fact they went 9-0 on the road which is the best in NFL history so they will regress when leaving home. Eight of those 14 regular season wins were by one possession so they were lucky in that regard while also being fortunate with injuries, finishing with the sixth fewest adjusted games to injury. New York Jets Over 5.5 -120The Jets finished with three wins last season and have not had a winning record since 2015. They have gone under their win total in seven of the last eight seasons as well as 11 of the last 15. This is the contrarian side as this win total has not been this low since 2022, the one recent season that they went over. New York has rebuilt both sides of the ball, bringing in veterans and adding significant first round draft picks. Additionally, head coach Aaron Glenn will be taking over the play calling on defense, a role he thrived in while in Detroit, after the defense finished with no interceptions last season. They have the fifth easiest schedule that includes home games against the Browns, Dolphins and Raiders in a span of four games.Cincinnati Bengals Over 10.5 +115The Bengals have underachieved with their wins totals in the last decade as they have gone under in eight of the last 10 including each of the last three seasons. They finished with just six victories last season as Joe Burrow missed nine games and the defense was atrocious. Cincinnati needs a healthy Burrow and while it lost Trey Hendrickson, the defense should improve after finishing No. 29 in Defensive EPA. A big reason for this is the opposition as this season, the Bengals project to go against the leagues easiest group of offenses. Overall, they face the easiest schedule in the league and while they have just eight home games, the toughest non-divisional road game is at Houston and they will be favored in seven of nine road games.Tennessee Titans Over 6.5 -115This will be a popular under play as the Titans have surpassed this win total only once in the last four seasons while finishing with three wins in each of the last two seasons. It is no surprise they stayed under the win total those four seasons after going over the previous four years. There will be more stability in this franchise with Robert Saleh taking over as head coach and Brian Daboll running the offense which should significantly give Cam Ward room for improvement. He faced the hardest group of opposing defenses in his rookie season and it was the hardest group any quarterback has faced the last six seasons so he had no chance. An easy schedule and regressing division gives Tennessee more opportunities. Denver Broncos Under 9.5 -105Denver is the billboard for regression after finishing No. 1 in the Luck Rankings last season which aided them to a 14-3 record. The Broncos have gone over the last two seasons after going 0-7-1 to the under the previous eight seasons. They did catch a break with the schedule as it is middle of the pack and while they do face the NFC West, they get the Rams and Seahawks at home. That being said, Denver caught lightning in a bottle last season as its finished with the third fewest adjusted games to injury. Additionally, the Broncos played 13 one possession games and won 11 of those so while coaching can be attributed to that, there is luck involved. They were just No. 15 and No. 8 in Offensive and Defensive EPA respectively.
Read more
