The FIFA World Cup is right around the corner with the start of the tournament set for Thursday, June 11, and the Final set for Sunday, July 19. The tournament has been modified for this year with this being the 1st edition of it having 48 teams in it. The top 2 teams from each group will qualify for the knockout rounds along with the top 8 teams that finished in 3rd place of their group. The knockout rounds will now start with a Round of 32 as well. Argentina is the defending champion of the competition from 2022 in Qatar, but there has not been a repeat champion since Brazil did it in 1958 and 1962. Now with the World Cup about to start, it is time to see who has the best chance at taking it home this year.
To Win Outright
Spain +450: Spain is coming into the World Cup as the team with the best chance at taking home the trophy this year, according to the oddsmakers. Spain last won the World Cup in 2010 and that is the only time in the competition’s history that Spain has won it, not even being a runner up in any other years. They are the current Euro Cup champions and the last time they won the Euro Cup was back in 2008 as well as 2012, winning the World Cup in between as well, but it is unlikely that they repeat that here. Spain does have one of the better teams in the World and they really broke out in the Euro Cup with an exciting young team that has been coming up over the last few years, but they still have a lot of youth driving them and they lack the veteran experience needed to make a run in a tournament like this. The World Cup is a completely different animal from the Euro Cup as they will encounter more styles that they are unfamiliar with. Spain certainly has the quality to make a deep run in this tournament, but they are still young and not quite ready for this stage. They have been in good form leading up to the tournament as well, but they did not play many quality opponents in their World Cup qualifying group and they also struggled a lot in the UEFA Nations League Finals last year, eventually losing to Portugal. Spain has the quality to get the job done, but there are better options to go with as there is not a lot of value in this price.
France +500: France is coming into the World Cup as the team with the next best chance at taking home the trophy this year, according to the oddsmakers. France has won the World Cup twice , last winning it in 2018 as well as winning it back in 1998. They have also finished as the runner up twice, both times being in the last 20 years, and the last time was actually the last World Cup in 2022 Qatar, losing to Argentina in the Final. France has been a dominant team on the world stage over the last decade and they certainly have one of the best teams coming into this competition. They have some of the best individual players in the world and a lot of that quality is in their attack as well. This is a team that can score a lot of goals and create a lot with their attack, but their defense has certainly been a problem over the years and is a glaring issue coming into this tournament. They are not the strongest at the back and that has been a problem for them in international play recently. They have been in great form coming into this tournament and dominated their World Cup qualifying group, but they struggled a lot in the UEFA Nations League Finals last year, allowing a lot of goals in that competition as a 5-4 loss to Spain was eventually their downfall. France has what it takes to make a deep run in this tournament and they certainly have the experience being one of the more dominant teams in the competition over the last 2 editions, but their defense is still going to be a big problem for them and there is not a lot of value in this price considering how a lot of other teams at the top have improved since the last World Cup. There are better options to go with than France at +500.
England +600: England is coming into the World Cup as the team with the next best chance at taking home the trophy this year, according to the oddsmakers. England won the World Cup back in 1966 and that is their only win in the competition’s history, not even finishing as a runner up in any other year. They have certainly had one of the better teams in the world over the last decade, but they still have nothing to show for it. They have never won a Euro Cup in their history either and they have been the runner up in the last 2 Euro Cups as well. England does have a very good squad with a lot of quality in their attack and they also have a strong midfield that will be able to control the pace of their matches, but their problem has never been talent over the years. They have had a big problem with coaching as well as team selection as they have a lot of talent to choose from, but they usually bring the wrong players or a combination of players that lack actual chemistry on the pitch. Tuchel has taken over the team now, so they certainly have a much better coach in place who knows how to play in these tournaments, but the quality they are bringing does not match the style of the coach. They have a lot of attacking quality and lack quality at the back on defense, but Tuchel loves to impose a more defensive style that could hurt England in this tournament by not playing to their strengths. England is always going to be a threat to make a deep run with the quality they have, but they have not shown that they can get over that final hump and they tend to have a choking problem the later they get into these tournaments. There is no real value in England to win at this price since there are better options to go with.
Brazil +800: Brazil is coming into the World Cup as the team with the next best chance at taking home the trophy this year, according to the oddsmakers. Brazil is the winningest team in the competition’s history with 5 World Cup wins in total as well as being the runner up twice. They have not had a lot of success recently though, last winning the World Cup in 2002, and they have never really been the same since getting demolished by Germany on home soil in the 2014 World Cup. They have had a big identity crisis over the last decade despite having the quality to be one of the best in the world. They still have the quality to win it all, but similar to England, their problem has never been talent. They have an excess of quality and sometimes that leads to bringing the wrong mix of players. They have severely underperformed at the last few World Cups and their biggest problems in those has been chemistry on the pitch. They have not only struggled on the world stage, they have also struggled a lot in South America as they have failed in Copa America the last few years which is a much smaller competition with less teams. They last won Copa America in 2019, but that is their only win since winning it back in 2007 and they have not been back to the Final since 2021 either. They certainly have the quality to go deep in this tournament, but they have not shown any reasons why over the last few years. They have not been in the best form leading up to this tournament either, struggling against some of the stronger teams from other continents, so it is tough to see them getting their act together to make a run to the Final. Brazil needs to prove themselves with this team before they can be trusted to win a competition like this, so there is not a lot of value in Brazil here.
Argentina +800: Argentina is coming into the World Cup as the team with the next best chance at taking home the trophy this year, according to the oddsmakers. Argentina is the defending champion of this competition, beating France in 2022 Qatar, and they have had a lot of success in the World Cup in their history. They have won the World Cup a total of 3 times and they have also been the runner up 3 different times. They have been one of the more dominant teams in the world over the last few years and that has continued at the continental level as well, winning the last 2 Copa Americas as well. Argentina is by far the best South American team in this tournament and if any non-European team is going to win it this year, Argentina still has the best chance. They have a lot of quality in their squad with a very good attack that is going to damage and a very good midfield that will be able to control the pace of their matches. They also have a very stout defense that will be tough to score on along with one of the better goalkeepers in the world. Argentina has shown that they have what it takes to win this competition and they still have the quality coming into this tournament, even more experienced now as well. There is also a very good chance that this is the last World Cup that Lionel Messi ever plays in as he will be 42 by the time the next one rolls around, so the team is going to be motivated to play hard in what could be his final run and they did rally around him 4 years ago in Qatar. Argentina has the best chance of winning if a non-European team does win it all and they are still the team to beat in this competition as the defending champions, so there is some good value in them to win at this price.
Portugal +1000: Portugal is coming into the World Cup as the team with the next best chance at taking home the trophy this year, according to the oddsmakers. Portugal has never won a World Cup in the competition’s history and they have never even finished as the runner up either. Their best finish was a 3rd place finish back in 1966, but they have never been back to the podium since then. They have had a very good team over the years, but they have not had a dominant team that has been one of the best in the world and they have even struggled on the European stage as well. They won the Euro Cup back in 2016, beating France in the Final, but that is their only Euro Cup win in history. They have a lot of quality in their squad, but they do not have a lot of players that are going to put them over the top and they were a big disappointment at the last World Cup in 2022 Qatar. They have been in great form recently as they dominated their group in the World Cup qualifiers and they even went on a run in the UEFA Nations League Finals last year, winning it all with wins over Germany and Spain. They tend to find ways to choke in these bigger competitions though and as their current team stands, they do not have what it takes to win the World Cup. They have solid defenders, but they have struggled recently when put up against stronger attacks and they do not have a real attacking player that is going to make a big difference for them on the pitch. Portugal is a very good team, but they are not a great team and eventually they will run into a better team that takes them out. There is no real value in Portugal at this price.
Germany +1400: Germany is coming into the World Cup as the team with the next best chance at taking home the trophy this year, according to the oddsmakers. Germany has had a lot of success on the world stage with a total of 4 World Cup wins. They won 3 of those when they were West Germany, winning in 1954, 1974, and 1990, but their most recent win came back in 2014. They have also finished as the runner up 4 different times, but they have not been back to the podium since winning it in 2014. They were a major disappointment in 2022 Qatar as they failed to even make it out of the group stage. They then made a big change by appointing Julian Nagelsmann as the new head coach and he has been building a much better version of Germany over the last few years. They were still a disappointment at the last Euro Cup since they were the host and did not win it, but they did lose to Spain who went on to win that Euro Cup with one of the best teams in the world. They also had some struggles at the UEFA Nations League Finals last year, but they have been gaining a lot of valuable experience and they are going to be ready to go in this tournament. They are going to have those previous disappointments driving them to do better in this tournament and they certainly have the quality to win it all. They have a very experienced group at the back with some of the better defenders in the world as well as one of the best goalkeepers. They also have a very strong midfield that is going to control the pace of their matches and dominate possession as well. They do lack a true quality finisher in their attack, but they have so many talented pieces to create scoring chances with and they will create ways to put the ball in the back of the net. Germany is going to be more motivated than ever to go far in this tournament and they certainly have the quality that can compete with the best. There is a lot of value in Germany to win the World Cup at this price as they are a true contender.
Netherlands +2000: Netherlands is coming into the World Cup as the team with the next best chance at taking home the trophy this year, according to the oddsmakers. Holland has been on the doorstep of this competition a few times, but they have never won a World Cup in the competition’s history. They have been the runner up 3 different times with the last time being back in 2010 when they lost to Spain in the Final, and they also have 1 3rd place finish as well. The only trophy that they have won on the world stage is 1 Euro Cup which came back in 1988. They were the runner up for the World Cup in 2010 and then finished 3rd in 2014, but they have not been back to the podium since then as the players from that team are long gone. This is a new era for the Netherlands and they have lots of quality in their squad once again, but they have not been able to go deep into recent tournaments. They have a very good team, but they do not have a great team and they usually run into trouble when playing against the top teams in the world. They have had some big problems on defense as well that has been a liability for them and was even a big reason why they did not go far in 2022 Qatar. They have been in good form leading up to this tournament, but they struggled in the UEFA Nations League Finals last year, losing to Spain who is one of the best in the world, but also allowing 5 goals between those 2 legs. They have the potential to go deeper into this tournament since they can use that experience from previous disappointments, but they are not a true contender to win it all. There will always be a team left in this tournament that is better than the Netherlands and eventually they will run into that better team. There is no real value in the Netherlands to win it all at this price since they are not a true contender.
RecommendationThere are plenty of exciting teams coming into this tournament, but there are only a handful of contenders. No nation that is not from Europe or South America has ever won the World Cup, so there is not a large pool of nations that can actually win the tournament and only a few that actually has what it takes. Argentina at +800 is one of those teams that does have both the quality and the experience to make a run, being the defending champions. Germany at +1400 is another option with some great value as a team that has had a lot of disappointment in recent years and will be highly focused here. Spain and France are obviously good options as they both have the quality to win it all, but there are some very good teams to find value in outside the top 3 favorites. Argentina at +800 is still the best option and Germany at +1400 is another great option for a dark horse.
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