April American League Overachievers
April American League Overachievers With a month of the season underway there is enough pitching data to draw some early conclusions and the marketplace will start to adjust to the current season numbers more than history and reputation. In a four-start sample, several starters have had fortunate results however and here are four AL starters that could see adjustments in their upcoming outings. Michael Wacha – Boston Red Sox: An instant star early in his career with the Cardinals, postingseveral great starts in the 2013 postseason before St. Louis lost to Boston inthe World Series, Wacha was an upper tier NL starter for several seasons.Things have fallen apart for Wacha now with his fourth team in four seasons.Wacha graded as one of the least successful starters in MLB from 2019-2021including posting just three wins over 23 starts with a 5.05 ERA with Tampa Baylast year. Wacha is only 30 years old as it makes sense for teams to continueto take a chance on him as Boston did with a one-year contract. So far, theresults have been promising with a 1.77 ERA in four starts and a 2-0 record indecisions. Wacha has just a 7.5 K/9 however and a 4.0 BB/9 that would be thehighest of his career. He has stranded nearly 93 percent of his base runnersand has a .154 BABIP so far this season compared to a .300 career average. Ashis 4.00 FIP suggests, the current pace for Wacha is unsustainable. Jordan Montgomery – New York Yankees: The Yankees lead the AL East with a 13-6 start and the pitchingstaff has excelled with some of the better numbers in MLB through the firstmonth of the season. Montgomery has been an important piece of that successwith a 2.70 ERA in 20 innings of work, even though he is winless. Montgomeryhas benefitted from facing Baltimore in two of his starts while also posting astrong outing vs. a light hitting Tigers lineup. Montgomery had average results last season for New York in over157 innings and a season line like last season is likely the ceiling for theleft-hander at age 29. The April success for Montgomery has come with the worstK/9 of his career at 6.8 while his xFIP of 4.16 looks much more realistic thanhis current 2.70 ERA. The Yankees should not count on Montgomery being amainstay in the rotation all season if they want to stay on top of the AL Eastand the opportunity to fade New York at an elevated price may be there whenMontgomery’s takes his turns in the rotation in May. New York has a pair of serieseach with Toronto and Chicago in May, both teams that hit left-handersextremely well. Zack Greinke - Kansas City Royals: A closing stop in Kansas City should be a nice way to end aremarkable career for Greinke; a storybook 2022 season is however not likely tocontinue for Greinke who has had some great early season fortune. Greinke hasnever been reliant on elite strikeout rates, but his current K/9 is 2.5compared to his career average of 8.1. Greinke has pitched exclusively in theAL Central in his four starts this season as there will be tougher matchupswaiting as the schedule moves on for the Royals. Greinke has a 4.75 xFIP next to his 2.86 ERA and he has so farallowed only one home run in 22 innings, after he allowed 30 home runs in 171innings last season pitching for Houston. Greinke has had his lowest groundball rate this season since 2007 as more home runs are likely to happen in hisfuture starts and unless Greinke can start to generate a few more strikeouts,it will be difficult for the Royals to count on Greinke to be a leader in therotation. The pricing to fade the Royals won’t often be appealing but Greinkestarts may be worth an ‘over’ look, particularly in a May schedule for KansasCity that features several formidable offenses. Cal Quantrill – Cleveland Guardians: Quantrill pitched well over his head last season in nearly 150innings for Cleveland going 8-3 with a 2.89 ERA. That was with a mediocre K/9of 7.3 and his xFIP of 4.43 was almost exactly his career average despite thebig improvement over his career ERA. This season Quantrill has a 5.15 xFIPagainst a 3.27 ERA as he again is overachieving. His groundball rate has beenjust 37 percent so far this season for by far a career low and his CSW% is justover 23 percent, among the worst of any AL starter at this point in the season. Quantrillwas a 1st round pick in 2016 but he doesn’t have a first-round secondary pitchesand his current BABIP of .221 will be hard to sustain. Quantrill has only 10strikeouts this season in 22 innings while also walking 10 batters. Despite astrong 3.27 ERA at this point in the season Quantrill has allowed at least tworuns in all four of his starts as he has not had a dominant outing and he hashad great fortune to only surrender one home run at this point in the season.With the Cleveland offense off to a decent start, the ‘over’ may be worth alook in upcoming Quantrill outings.
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