Expert Sports Picks and Analysis from Al McMordie

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL, NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/07/2023

Tuesday, Feb 07, 2023

The Tuesday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, and NCAAB.The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. The New York Knicks travel to Orlando to play the Magic at 7:10 PM ET as a 2-point road favorite with the total set at 227 (all odds from DraftKings). Two NBA games tip off at 7:30 PM ET. The Phoenix Suns play at Brooklyn on TNT as a 4.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 226. The New Orleans Pelicans host the Chicago Bulls at 8:10 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite. The Denver Nuggets play at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 9:10 PM ET as an 8-point favorite with a total of 236. The Los Angeles Lakers are at home against the Oklahoma City Thunder on TNT at 10 PM ET as a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 237.5. The National Hockey League has six games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The Colorado Avalanche visit Pittsburgh to play the Penguins, with both teams priced at -110 with a total of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning host the San Jose Sharks as a -295 money line favorite with an over/under 6.5. Two NHL games start at 7:37 PM ET. The Edmonton Oilers play in Detroit against the Red Wings as a -170 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. The Seattle Kraken is in New York to play the Islanders, with both teams priced at -110 with an over/under of 5.5. The Nashville Predators are at home against the Vegas Golden Knights at 8:07 PM ET as a -120 money line favorite with a total of 6. The Chicago Blackhawks host the Anaheim Ducks at 8:37 PM ET as a -125 money line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has seven games on national television. UConn plays at home against Marquette on FS1 at 6:30 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 147.5. Four more NCAAB games on national television begin at 7 PM ET. North Carolina is at Wake Forest on ESPN as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 153. Texas A&M hosts Auburn on ESPN2 as a 3-point favorite with a total of 140.5. VCU plays at home against Dayton on the CBS Sports Network as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 129. UNC-Greensboro is at home against East Tennessee State on ESPNU as a 10-point favorite with a total of 128. Butler hosts St. John’s on FS1 at 8:30 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 144.5. Four more NCAAB games on national television at 9 PM ET. Kansas State hosts TCU on ESPNU as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 147.5. Michigan State plays at home against Maryland on ESPN2 as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 131.5. Kentucky is at home against Arkansas on ESPN as a 5-point favorite with a total of 139.5. Saint Louis hosts Rhode Island on the CBS Sports Network as an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 142.5. New Mexico plays at home against Nevada on FS1 at 10:30 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 148.

Super Bowl Betting Trends - 1981 to 2022

by Al McMordie

Monday, Feb 06, 2023

Super Bowl LVII is a fascinating match-up between coach Andy Reid's current team (Kansas City Chiefs) and his former team (Philadelphia Eagles). The Eagles have been installed as a 1.5-point favorite, with a total of 50.5 (all odds from BetMGM).Let's take a look at some historical trends.Dating back to 1981, there have been 42 Super Bowls.The underdogs have gone 23-17-2 ATS, including 2-3 at less than 3 points.And there have been 23 Overs against 19 Unders, including 3-2 Over in games with totals in the 49 to 52-point range.There have been 27 meetings between teams that played earlier in the current season, or in the previous season.The revenge-minded team (here, Philadelphia) has gone 15-12 SU and 16-10-1 ATS. When the revenger did not cover the spread in the previous meeting, it has gone 8-11 SU and 9-9-1 ATS in the Super Bowl. But if it covered the spread in the previous meeting, it's gone 7-1 SU/ATS in the Super Bowl (Philly did not cover the point spread in last season's loss to Kansas City).With regard to rematches from the current or former season, the Super Bowls have gone Under six of 12 times when the previous meeting went Over the total. When the previous match-up went Under the total, the Super Bowl has gone Over the total in eight of 15.There have been 19 games that involved two teams that earned a Bye to start the Playoffs. Eleven of those 19 games have gone Over the total. The favorite covered the spread 50% of the time in those games (9-9-1 ATS), including 5-2 ATS when favored by 3 points or less.The team which averaged more points on offense has gone 19-23 SU and 15-25-2 ATS, while the team which gave up less points on defense has gone 28-14 SU and 22-18-2 ATS. With respect to Super Bowl 57, the Eagles have given up less points on defense than have the Chiefs, while the two teams have scored exactly the same number of points on the season.The team with the better win percentage has gone 18-18 SU and 13-21-2 ATS, including 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS when it was off an ATS loss.The team with the better ATS win percentage (here, Philadelphia) has gone 24-14 SU and 23-13-2 ATS, including 10-3 SU/ATS when the Super Bowl was competitively-priced with a point spread of 3 points or less.I am wrapping up my 11th straight winning NFL season, and have released a Totals play in this game, as I look to stay red-hot (currently 21-1-2 my last 24 selections, as of this writing). Don't miss my NFL Total of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/06/2023

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Feb 06, 2023

The Monday sports card features action in the NBA, NHL, and NCAAB.The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Boston Celtics travel to Detroit to play the Pistons as an 11-point road favorite, with the total set at 229.5 (all odds from DraftKings). The Cleveland Cavaliers play in Washington against the Wizards as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 221. The Los Angeles Clippers are in Brooklyn to play the Nets at 7:40 PM ET as a 6.5-point road favorite with a total of 218.5. Two NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Chicago Bulls host the San Antonio Spurs as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 237. The Sacramento Kings play in Houston against the Rockets as a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 234.5. The Utah Jazz are at home against the Dallas Mavericks at 9:10 PM ET as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 221. Two more games complete the NBA card at 10:10 PM ET. The Golden State Warriors host the Oklahoma City Thunder as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 237. The Milwaukee Bucks play in Portland against the Trail Blazers as a 5-point road favorite with an over/under of 239.5. The National Hockey League has six games on its slate. Two NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The New York Islanders visit Philadelphia to play the Flyers as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 5.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning play in Florida against the Panthers as a -125 money line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two more NHL games begin at 7:37 PM ET. The New York Rangers are at home against the Calgary Flames as a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The New Jersey Devils host the Vancouver Canucks as a -245 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Dallas Stars play at home against the Anaheim Ducks at 8:37 PM ET as a -365 money line favorite with a total of 6. The Minnesota Wild are in Arizona to play the Coyotes at 9:07 PM ET as a -225 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The college basketball schedule has seven games on national television. Two NCAAB games on national television tip-off at 7 PM ET. Lafayette plays at Holy Cross on the CBS Sports Network as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 125. Miami (FL) is at home against Duke on ESPN as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 146. The Hurricanes won for the third time in their last four games with a 78-74 upset victory at Clemson as a 1.5-point underdog on Saturday. The Blue Devils won for the third straight-time with their 63-57 victory against North Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite on Saturday. Two NCAAB games on national television start at 9 PM ET. Texas Southern hosts Bethune Cookman on ESPNU at 9 PM ET as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 143.5. Kansas plays at home against Texas on ESPN. The Jayhawks lost for the fourth time in their last six games in a 68-53 defeat at Iowa State as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Longhorns won for the fourth time in their last five games with a 69-66 victory at Kansas State as a 1.5-point favorite on Saturday. Kansas is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Weber State travels to Northern Colorado on ESPNU at 11 PM ET. The Wildcats won for the fourth time in their last five games with a 72-71 victory at Idaho State as a 3-point favorite on Saturday. The Bears are on a three-game losing streak after their 75-62 loss at Montana State as an 11.5-point underdog on Saturday. Weber State is a 1-point road favorite with a total of 142.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 02/05/2023

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Feb 05, 2023

The Sunday sports card features action in the NBA, NCAAB, and EPL. The National Hockey League continues its All-Star Game break.The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. The Charlotte Hornets host the Orlando Magic at 1:10 PM ET as a 1-point favorite (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Cleveland Cavaliers travel to Indiana to play the Pacers at 5:10 pm et as a 4.5-point road favorite with the total set at 225.5. Two more NBA games tip off at 6:10 PM ET. The Memphis Grizzlies play at home against the Toronto Raptors as a 4.5-point favorite.The New York Knicks are at home against the Philadelphia 76ers on ESPN at 6:10 PM ET. The 76ers won for the ninth time in their last ten games in a 137-125 victory at San Antonio as a 10-point favorite on Friday. The Knicks lost for the third time in their last four games in a 134-128 loss in overtime to the Los Angeles Clippers as a 2.5-point underdog on Saturday. Philadelphia is a 5.5-point road favorite. Two games complete the NBA card at 7:10 PM ET. The Denver Nuggets visit Minnesota to play the Timberwolves. The New Orleans Pelicans host the Sacramento Kings as a 2-point favorite. The college basketball schedule has seven games on national television. Three NCAAB games on national television start at noon ET. Saint Joseph's plays at home against LaSalle on ESPNU as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141.5. Richmond is at home against Fordham on the USA Network as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 135.5. Seton Hall hosts DePaul on FS1 at noon ET. The Pirates won for the sixth time in their last seven games with an 84-72 victory at St. John's as a 2-point favorite on Wednesday. The Blue Demons lost their fourth straight game in a 90-76 loss to UConn as an 11-point underdog on Tuesday. Seton Hall is an 11.5-point favorite with an over/under of 138.5.Michigan plays at home against Ohio State on CBS at 1 PM ET. The Wolverines ended a two-game losing streak with a 68-51 upset victory at Northwestern as a 3.5-point underdog on Thursday. The Buckeyes lost for the eighth time in their last nine games in a 65-60 upset loss to Wisconsin as a 7.5-point favorite on Thursday. Michigan is a 4-point favorite with a total of 143.5. Two NCAAB games on national television start at 6 PM ET. Houston is at Temple on ESPN2 as an 11-point road favorite with an over/under of 131.5. Utah hosts California on ESPNU as a 16-point favorite with a total of 127.5.Colorado plays at home against Stanford on FS1 at 7 PM ET. The Buffaloes ended a two-game losing streak with a 59-46 victory against California as a 15.5-point favorite on Thursday. The Cardinal are on a five-game winning streak after their 78-72 victory at Utah as a 6-point underdog on Thursday. Colorado is a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 135.5. Matchweek 22 in the English Premier League continues with two matches. Leeds United plays at Nottingham Forest on the USA Network at 9 AM ET in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Manchester City is at Tottenham on NBC at 11:30 AM ET as a -0.5 goal line road favorite with a total of 3.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 02/04/2023

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Feb 04, 2023

The Saturday sports card features action in the NBA, NCAAB, and EPL. The National Hockey League continues its All-Star Game break.The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 6:10 PM ET. The Brooklyn Nets host the Washington Wizards as a 2-point favorite, with the total set at 230 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Los Angeles Lakers travel to New Orleans to play the Pelicans on ESPN2 as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 235.5. Two more NBA games start at 7:10 PM ET. The Phoenix Suns play in Detroit against the Pistons as a 4.5-point road favorite with a total of 226. The Los Angeles Clippers are in New York to play the Knicks as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 223.5. Three NBA games begin at 8:10 PM ET. The Chicago Bulls play at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 5-point favorite with a total of 232.5. The Milwaukee Bucks are at home against the Miami Heat as a 6-point favorite with an over/under of 221. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Houston Rockets as an 8-point favorite with a total of 232.5. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Dallas Mavericks on ABC at 8:40 PM ET as a 9-point favorite. The Denver Nuggets are at home against the Atlanta Hawks at 9:10 PM ET as a 7-point favorite. The college basketball schedule has 17 games on major national television. Four games tip-off on national television at noon ET. Virginia Tech hosts Virginia on ESPN2 as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 129.5. Kansas visits Kansas State on ESPN as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 136. UConn plays at Georgetown as a 13-point road favorite with an over/under of 146.5. Rutgers goes against Michigan State on a neutral court at Madison Square Garden in New York City on Fox as a 4-point favorite with a total of 127.Baylor is at home against Texas Tech on CBS at 1 PM ET as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 143. Two more NCAAB games on national television start at 2 PM ET. Tennessee hosts Auburn on ESPN as a 9-point favorite with a total of 134.5. Marquette plays at home against Butler on FS1 as a 15-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. Iowa is at home against Illinois on Fox as a 3-point favorite with a total of 152.5. Two NCAAB games on national television begin at 4 PM ET. Purdue travels to Indiana on ESPN in a pick ‘em game with an over/under of 139. Texas plays at Kansas State on ESPN2 as a 1-point road favorite with a total of 149.5. Xavier is at home against Saint John’s on Fox at 5 PM ET as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 163.5. Duke hosts North Carolina on ESPN at 6:30 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 143.5. Creighton plays at home against Villanova on Fox at 7:30 PM ET as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 137. Kentucky is at home against Florida on ESPN at 8:30 PM ET as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 135.5. USC hosts Washington on FS1 at 9:30 PM ET as a 10-point favorite with an over/under of 142.5. Arizona State plays at home against Oregon on ESPN2 at 10 PM ET in a pick ‘em game with a total of 140.5. Saint Mary’s is at home against Gonzaga on ESPN at 10:30 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 137.5. Matchweek 22 in the English Premier League continues with seven matches. Arsenal travels to Everton on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Five more EPL games start at 10 AM ET. Aston Villa hosts Leicester City on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Brentford plays at home against Southampton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Brighton and Hove Albion are at home against Bournemouth as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Manchester United hosts Crystal Palace as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Liverpool plays at Wolverhampton as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5. Newcastle United is at home against West Ham United on NBC at 12:30 PM ET as a -1 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, EPL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/03/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Feb 03, 2023

The Friday sports card features action in the NBA, NCAAB, and EPL. The National Hockey League continues its All-Star Game break.The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. Three NBA games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Detroit Pistons host the Charlotte Hornets as a 1.5-point favorite, with the total set at 241 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Sacramento Kings travel to Indiana to play the Pacers as a 3-point road favorite. The Washington Wizards play at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 4-point favorite. The Boston Celtics are at home against the Phoenix Suns at 7:40 PM ET as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 226. Three NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Toronto Raptors play in Houston against the Rockets as a 6-point road favorite. The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Orlando Magic as a 5.5-point favorite. The Philadelphia 76ers visit San Antonio to play the Spurs as a 9-point road favorite. The Utah Jazz play at home against the Atlanta Hawks at 9:10 PM ET as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 240.5. The college basketball schedule has eight games on national television. Yale is at Harvard on ESPNU at 5 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 133.5. Ball State hosts Eastern Michigan on the CBS Sports Network at 6:30 PM ET as a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 151.5. Two NCAAB games on national television begin at 7 PM ET. Quinnipiac plays at home against Fairfield on ESPNU. The Bobcats won for the seventh time in their last eight games with a 72-66 victory against Marist as a 10.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The Stags’ four-game winning streak ended in a 78-69 upset loss to Rider as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. Quinnipiac is a 5.5-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Saint Louis is at home against VCU on ESPN2. The Billikens were on a six-game winning streak before losing at Fordham, 75-65, as a 4-point favorite on Tuesday. The Rams won for the seventh time in their last eight games in a 61-59 victory at Davidson as a 4-point favorite on Tuesday. Saint Louis is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 141.5. Two NCAAB games on national television tip-off at 9 PM ET. San Diego State hosts Boise State on FS1. The Aztecs were on a four-game winning streak before losing at Nevada, 75-66, as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. The Broncos won for the eighth time in their last nine games in a 59-52 victory at Air Force as an 8-point favorite on Tuesday. San Diego State is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 133.5. Akron plays at home against Kent State on ESPN U at 9 PM ET as a 2-point favorite with a total of 133.5. Two more NCAAB games start at 11 PM ET. Nevada is at home against Air Force on the CBS Sports Network as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 133. UNLV hosts Fresno State on FS1 at 11 PM ET. The Runnin’ Rebels won their third straight game in an 83-71 upset victory at Colorado State as a 2.5-point underdog on Tuesday. The Bulldogs lost for the sixth time in their last seven games in an 85-62 loss at Wyoming as a 5-point underdog on Tuesday. UNLV is a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 132.Matchweek 22 in the English Premier League begins with one match. Chelsea hosts Fulham on the USA Network as a -1 goal-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 2.5.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/02/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Feb 02, 2023

The Thursday sports card features action in the NBA and NCAAB. The National Hockey League continues its All-Star Game break.The National Basketball Association has seven games on its docket. The Los Angeles Lakers travel to Indiana to play the Pacers at 7:10 PM ET as a 1-point road favorite (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Two more NBA games tip off at 7:40 PM ET. The Miami Heat play in New York against the Knicks as a 1.5-point road favorite, with the total set at 213. The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Memphis Grizzlies on TNT at 7:40 PM ET. The Cavaliers lost for the second time in their last three games in a 100-97 upset loss to Miami as a 4-point favorite on Tuesday. The Grizzlies lost for the sixth time in their last seven games after a 122-112 upset loss to Portland as a 5.5-point favorite yesterday. Cleveland is a 4.5-point favorite. The Chicago Bulls play at home against the Charlotte Hornets at 8:10 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 236.5. The Dallas Mavericks are at home against the New Orleans Pelicans as a 5-point favorite with a total of 225. The Denver Nuggets host the Golden State Warriors at 9:10 PM ET as a 10.5-point favorite. The Milwaukee Bucks play at home against the Los Angeles Clippers on TNT at 10:10 PM ET. The Bucks are on a five-game winning streak after their 124-115 victory against Charlotte as an 11-point favorite on Tuesday. The Clippers won for the sixth time in their last seven games with a 108-103 victory at Chicago as a 3-point favorite on Tuesday. Milwaukee is a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 230.5. The college basketball schedule has 13 games on national television. Merrimack is at home against Long Island on the CBS Sports Network at 5 PM ET as a 12.5-point favorite at Caesars with a total of 128.5. Four more NCAAB games on national television start at 7 PM ET. UAB hosts FAU on the CBS Sports Network as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 147. Ohio State plays at home against Wisconsin on FS1 as a 7.5-point favorite. Northwestern is at home against Michigan on ESPN2 as a 4-point favorite with a total of 137.5. UNC-Asheville hosts High Point on ESPNU as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 150. Four NCAAB games on national television begin at 9 PM ET. Houston visits Wichita State on ESPN2 as a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 131. UCLA plays at home against Washington on FS1 as a 17.5-point favorite with an over/under of 136.5. Middle Tennessee is at home against UTEP on ESPNU as a 4-point favorite with a total of 143.5. Arizona hosts Oregon on ESPN at 10:30 PM ET as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 150.5. Three more NCAAB games are on national television at 11 PM ET. Gonzaga plays at home against Santa Clara on the CBS Sports Network as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 160. Saint Mary’s is at home against San Francisco on ESPNU as a 13-point favorite with an over/under of 131.5. USC hosts Washington State on FS1 as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 132.5.

Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 02/01/2023

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Feb 01, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features action in the NBA and NCAAB. The National Hockey League begins its All-Star Game break.The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Three NBA games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Philadelphia 76ers host the Orlando Magic as an 8.5-point favorite, with the total set at 231. The Memphis Grizzlies play at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 5.5-point favorite. The Washington Wizards visit Detroit to play the Pistons as a 6-point road favorite. The Boston Celtics are at home against the Brooklyn Nets on ESPN. The Celtics’ ended a three-game losing streak with a 125-121 victory against the Los Angeles Lakers as an 8.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Nets won their second-straight game in a 121-104 victory against the Lakers as a 9-point favorite on Monday. Boston is an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 226.5. Three NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Oklahoma City Thunder play at Houston against the Rockets as a 5.5-point road favorite. The Golden State Warriors travel to Minnesota to play the Timberwolves as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 239.5. The Sacramento Kings are in San Antonio to play the Spurs as a 7.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 244.5. The Utah Jazz host the Toronto Raptors at 9:10 PM ET as a 3-point favorite with a total of 230. The Phoenix Suns play at home against the Atlanta Hawks on ESPN at 10:10 PM ET. The Suns won for the sixth time in their last seven games with a 114-106 victory against Toronto as a 1.5-point favorite on Monday. The Hawks lost for the fourth time in their last five games in a 129-125 loss at Portland as a 2.5-point underdog. Phoenix is a 1.5-point favorite.The college basketball schedule has nine games on national television. Two NCAAB games on national television start at 6:30 PM ET. Xavier is at home against Providence on FS1 as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 152.5. Creighton travels to Georgetown on the CBS Sports Network as a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 147.5. Two more NCAAB games on national television begin at 7 PM ET. Tennessee plays at Florida as a 5.5-pint road favorite with an over/under of 132. South Florida hosts East Carolina on ESPNU as an 8-point favorite with a total of 143.5. Two NCAAB games on national television tip-off at 8:30 PM ET. Marquette plays at home against Villanova on FS1 as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 143.5. St. John’s is at home against Seton Hall on the CBS Sports Network as a 1-point favorite with a total of 143. Two more NCAAB games on national television start at 9 PM ET. Oklahoma hosts Oklahoma State on ESPN2 as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 131. Tulane plays at home against SMU on ESPNU as a 9-point favorite with a total of 159. Utah State is at home against New Mexico on FS1 at 10:30 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 154.5.

Can the Miami Heat's Elite Defense Keep Them Competitive in the Eastern Conference?

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Jan 31, 2023

The Miami Heat went into the final day of January with a 28-23 record. That was good for first place in the Southeast Division, three games above the disappointing Atlanta Hawks. Yet the Heat only had the sixth-best record in the Eastern Conference, with some serious concerns about the quality of their roster this season.Miami is only averaging 108.6 points per game on 45.3% shooting. That is the lowest-scoring average in the NBA, and that number is not simply a product of their 97.09 possession-per-game average. The Heat's 110.9 offensive rating this season is the fourth-lowest in the league in terms of efficiency. Only Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin are making 37% or more of their shots from 3-point land. None of the other players on the squad are shooting even 34% of their 3-pointers. As a team, the Heat went into Monday night with a 33.4% shooting percentage from 3-point land, the fourth-lowest mark in the NBA. Yet the Heat continue to excel on defense for head coach Erik Spoelstra. Miami ranked fifth in the NBA in defensive rating, and they led the league in defensive efficiency this month going into their game in Cleveland against the Cavaliers. We thought the Heat's consistent play on defense would help them be a live underdog tonight. Miami had been on a three-game winning streak before getting upset on the road in Charlotte on Saturday, 122-117, as a 6-point favorite. The Heat should respond by playing well in this Eastern Conference showdown with the Cavaliers. Miami had covered the point spread in seven of their last nine games after getting upset by a Southeast Division opponent. They had covered the point spread in twenty of their last twenty-eight games on the road after losing their previous game. Jimmy Butler had been dealing with a quad injury yet he had been upgraded to probable to play in this game. The Heat have a big challenge against the Cavaliers team that has a 21-5 record on their home court, yet their strong play on defense should keep them in this game. Their outstanding defense had helped them cover the point spread in four of their last five games on the road against teams winning 60% or more of their games at home. The Heat had covered the point spread in six of their last eight games against winning teams, and they had covered the point spread in seventeen of their last twenty-four games when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points. Miami got embarrassed the last time they played the Cavaliers. That contest was in Cleveland on November 20th when the Heat lost, 113-87. Miami had covered the point spread in five of their last seven games when they were playing with revenge from a loss on the road to their current opponent. The Heat's defense did, in fact, lead the way for them in this game. Cleveland entered the game with a 48.9% field goal percentage, and that shooting clip improved to 49.4% when playing at home. Yet the Cavaliers were 48% from the field Monday night while missing 29 of their 40 shots from 3-point land. Their 28.0% shooting percentage from the 3-point line was far below the 38.1% shooting percentage from the 3-point land at home going into this game. Miami pulled the upset, 100-97, as a 5.5-point underdog, and the Team won their NBA Game of the Month for January. We closed out the month on a 49-23 (68%) NBA winning streak.Good luck - Team Del Genio.

To Defer or Not Defer: Is Attempting an Earlier 2-Pointer trailing by 15 Helpful?

by Hollywood Sports

Tuesday, Jan 31, 2023

Imagine a football team trailing in the fourth quarter by 15 points. They are driving down the field. They then score a touchdown. A strategy decision now needs to be made: go for the two-point conversion now or wait for the next (necessary) touchdown to then attempt the two-pointer. Their head coach chooses to kick the extra point. Cue Analytics-influenced NFL writer, as if he or she is Batman seeing the Bat-signal for another mistaken coaching decision from the Big Bible Book of Football Analytics, 1st Edition (because the analytics do not need to be updated once the rules have been established. Did they have to ever update the Old Testament?). It's time to tweet!"Should have gone for two points now. Better to know now if you need to go attempt an onside kick." (Aren't I smart? Where is the drop-mic emoji on Twitter, anyways?).Look, I understand that the earlier on-side kick is advantageous since there may not be enough time for an on-side kick if you miss the two-pointer at 21-19 -- but that possibility still exists in the world where the head coach defers the on-side kick decision, by the way -- and that does play a role in the floating (and hidden) probability chart. However, the "it's better to get the info ASAP" argument is not nearly as a slam dunk as the Twitteratti and The Analytics Say crowd suggests. There are at least three reasons why deferring might increase the probability of success on a deferred two-point attempt. (1) More information is important -- and that also includes acquiring more play-calling knowledge regarding what is working (and why) against the defense. Another offensive series produces more observation and data regarding what is working and what is not. And if the probability of forcing overtime is highly dependent on the success of the eventual twp-point attempt, then getting into that play with the highest possibility of success takes on disproportional impact.(2) The defense is getting more tired as the game goes on. Attempting the same two-point conversion play later in the game could see an uptick in the probability of success simply if it occurs later. I have heard several NFL coaches espouse their belief that players hit a wall where fatigue sets in. I have heard former Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys offensive coordinator Paul Alexander identify this threshold at roughly 50 snaps per player.(3) The heightened momentum from a team attempting to tie the score with a deferred two-pointer may be higher than the earlier two-point attempt. After another offensive touchdown and a defensive unit now on their heels at the precipice of blowing a 15-point lead, the probability of success may be higher at the moment for the offense than it would have been at the first touchdown. Those three arguments are all playing the probability game that The Analytics Say folks revel in. But the best argument to defer the two-point decision is this: failing to convert the earlier two-point conversion might be too deflating for the trailing team.Simply kicking the extra point keeps the trailing team at a hypothetical one-score deficit. And to quote the great philosopher Lloyd Christmas in Dumb and Dumber: "So you're telling me there's a chance!"Keeping the deficit at only one score maintains hope for the trailing team -- and that is a team that still needs to score a second touchdown, either way. A missed two-point conversion is a deflating buzz-kill, with the metaphorical mountain needing to be climbed still very high. This is a calculation that is dependent on the belief in momentum. And by momentum, I mean, that human beings' performance can increase or decrease from their baseline effort based on positive or negative feelings. At its core, many of the applications of analytics presume that momentum does not exist. The experience of the moment is dismissed as a product of hindsight bias. Admittedly, most of the Gotcha! folks on Twitter are not aware of this. The savvier ones do appreciate that the application of the quantitative they are citing is dependent on every statistical moment being roughly the same -- a necessary component for their sample size to be valid and the application to the new situation (where they are now geniuses) being appropriate. So, many of the "get the info ASAP" folks will deny any negative impact of deflating a team from a failed early two-pointer because ... it is impossible to deflate a team, or something.In the end, I don't think it is a bad decision to take the two-pointer early. If an offensive coordinator thinks his team has the goods to convert the play at that moment, then go for it. But this notion that head coaches who do not attempt the two-pointer ASAP are making some huge mistake in the Big Book of Analytics is just a take from someone living in Clownsville. Best of luck -- Frank.

The Midseason Improving Minnesota Timberwolves Defense

by Team Del Genio

Tuesday, Jan 31, 2023

We saw a nice opportunity with an under in the NBA on Monday in the Western Conference showdown between Sacramento and Minnesota. The oddsmakers had installed the over/under in the high-230s between these two teams despite the Timberwolves upsetting the Kings two days earlier, 117-110, as a 3-point underdog with only 227 combined points scored. Considering that Sacramento led the NBA in offensive rating and Minnesota ranked 11th in that category this month going into the game, it was understandable why bettors expect a higher-scoring game in this rematch. Yet perhaps these bettors should be paying closer attention to the improved play of the Timberwolves on the defensive end of the court. Minnesota ranked twelfth in the league in defensive rating going into that game, yet they ranked eighth in defensive rating in January. They had the second-best defensive rating in the NBA in their last five games as they have held those five opponents to 107.8 points per game on 45.4% shooting from the field. The Timberwolves were allowing 115.0 points per game on 46.6% shooting this season, yet those numbers should be considered with the fast tempo that the team likes to play. Minnesota ranked sixth in the NBA in pace, and they had the second most possessions in the league. They had held their three opponents (and four of their last five opponents) to 110 or fewer points, which is a very nice number when eight of their last nine games have had the oddsmakers install the over/under in the 230s. The Timberwolves had played thirteen of their last seventeen games under the number after winning their previous game at home, and they had played five of their last six games under the total when they had won five or more games in a row. It was Minnesota’s eighth game in their last fourteen days, and they had played nine of their last twelve games under the number when playing for the eighth or more time in the last two weeks. The 117 points they scored on Saturday was the most they scored in five games. They were getting all this done without Karl-Anthony Towns who is still out with a right calf injury. Minnesota had played four straight unders against teams with a winning record. They had played eleven of their last seventeen games when the oddsmakers install them as an underdog of up to three points or as a favorite of up to three points. The Timberwolves improved play on defense came through for us. While Sacramento is third in the NBA with a 49.3% field goal percentage, Minnesota held them to 47% shooting from the field including a subpar 9 of 30, 30%, shooting clip from 3-point land. The Timberwolves' play on defense was so good that the under survived an overtime session after the game ended with a 103-103 score after regulation time. Fortunately, Minnesota scored only eight points in overtime while the Kings surged with 17 points to win the game, 118-111. With the oddsmakers’ over/under number in the 238.5 range, under tickets remained safe, and we won our NBA Total of the Month. Sharp bettors should pay close attention to recent trends since that can expose numbers put out by the oddsmakers that reflect season averages that are dependent on data that may be outdated by improved (or declining) quality of play.Good luck - TDG.

La Liga Futures (Updated)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Tuesday, Jan 31, 2023

The Winter Transfer Window will be closing soon and teams have had plenty of opportunity to boost their squads with new signings that will help make a run down the final stretch of the season. According to the oddsmakers at this point in time, the La Liga title race is pretty much locked up by 1 team that is a massive favorite to win right now but in reality, we are only at the halfway point of the season for matches played and there is still lots of time for another club to make a move and go on a run taking over the lead with a long season ahead of us still. It is time to see who has a shot at this title with half the season left to go still. To Win Outright Barcelona -334: Barcelona is the biggest favorite on the board right now to win the La Liga title this season and with odds like those they are pretty much saying that it would take a lot for another club to swoop in and take the title from Barcelona. It is hard not to love this team with all of the moves they made in the summer to bring in a lot of top talent in the World and so far it has paid off defensively as Barcelona has the best defense in La Liga this season, allowing just 6 goals in their 18 matches so far. This title race is anything but over though as Barcelona has already shown their cracks after a very poor run in Champions League, spending a ton of money to bring in some big names when they could barely afford the players and then not making it out of the group stage in Champions League which was an absolute disaster for this club. Winning Europa League means nothing to this team and at this point, winning the league title is really the only way to salvage this disaster of a season for Barcelona but they do not even have a massive lead in the table so these odds on them to win are a little mispriced right now. They are only sitting 5 points above Real Madrid in the table who is in 2nd place and that is not a very big lead at all considering there is still half a season of matches left. Barcelona has also been shedding some of their talent in this winter window as they cannot afford everyone and they have also been in a lot of 1-0 wins recently as their attack has been struggling and that could lead to some dropped points in the near future. They also have a match against Real Madrid left this season and they lost the reverse fixture so a loss in that match would hurt their chances at the title even more. Their 1 saving grace is that Real Madrid is good enough to make a run in Champions League so they may not be as focused on the league title down the road, but if they get eliminated or even have a lead then they will definitely be focused on winning the title and keeping it out of the hands of Barcelona. This title race is nowhere near being over right now so this line for Barcelona is heavily mispriced. Real Madrid +240: Real Madrid is coming in as the 2nd biggest favorite on the board here to win the La Liga title and with odds like these it is hard not to be tempted by the defending La Liga Champions and defending Champions League Champions. Real Madrid showed last year that they are not only the best in Spain but also the best in Europe and their squad overall remained unchanged at the key positions. They have been great this year as well as they are sitting in 2nd place in the table, just 5 points behind the league leading Barcelona, and they have a 13-3-2 record overall with half a season left to make a big run and catch Barcelona. Real Madrid may not have the best defense in the league like Barcelona does, but their defense has still been very good as they average under 1 goal allowed per match. Their attack has been better than Barcelona though as Real Madrid has scored more goals this season and even leads La Liga this year with the most goals scored, scoring 38 goals in their 18 matches. Real Madrid also had a much better Champions League campaign than Barcelona did as Real Madrid actually made it out of the group stage but that might be the one thing that hurts them down the line if they can make a deep run. Real Madrid is good enough to make a run in Champions League which would force them to split their attention between matches later in the season and it could allow Barcelona who is not in Champions League to secure their lead and the title. Real Madrid also has the depth and talent to focus on both competitions though as they were in great form doing both prior to the World Cup, and if they get knocked out then it will only strengthen their chances at the league title as they will turn their focus there wanting to come away with a trophy this year. Considering all of the situations as well as the talent and the depth on this Real Madrid side, there is a ton of value in this line for them to win the title as they could easily erase the 5 point lead Barcelona has in the next few weeks and these two could be sitting level with a third of the season still left. There is no better value here than to take the defending La Liga and Champions League Champions here to defend their title once again. Real Sociedad +20000: Real Sociedad is coming into this as the 3rd biggest favorite on the board to win the La Liga title this year but with odds like these they are not really that much of a favorite nor do they even look like they have a shot at the title. This Real Sociedad side is a lot better than the oddsmakers think and week after week this team is undervalued in the lines of their matches. They are currently sitting in 3rd place right now just 3 points behind 2nd place and 8 points behind 1st place but they have also played an extra match so that could be more like 11 points behind 1st place. Real Sociedad has been in great form all year but they have really kicked it up a level since the restart, winning every single match they have played in any competition, and they have a very good squad with a great defense that averages under 1 goal allowed per match. As good as this team is and as well as they have been playing, the oddsmakers are likely correct in the sense that they do not have a shot at the title just because they are too far behind now with 2 goliath’s in the way and still have extra matches coming up with Europa League soon, but to have them at par with Atletico Madrid is completely absurd as this is the best team in Spain by far when taking Barcelona and Real Madrid out of the equation. Real Sociedad does not have the team to make a run at the title this season but they are still very good and will have that 3rd place spot locked up all year. Some books offer an option “To Win Outright without Barcelona and Real Madrid” and right now Real Sociedad is sitting at +125 which looks like a steal for the club that is destined to finish 3rd this season. Atletico Madrid +20000: Atletico Madrid is coming into this as the next biggest favorite on the board to win the La Liga title this season and their odds to win are the same as Real Sociedad right now but that is absolutely absurd. Atletico Madrid is currently sitting in 4th place just 5 points behind Real Sociedad in 3rd place and 13 points behind Barcelona in 1st place. Atletico has also played an extra match this season like Real Sociedad so even though they are still 5 points behind them, that could be more like 16 points behind Barcelona in 1st place. Atletico Madrid does have a very good defense as they have been averaging under 1 goal allowed per match this year, but that is also all they have as their attack has been awful all year struggling to score goals in their matches and their mindset is not right to win a title either. Their manager loves to implement a heavily defensive game plan in their matches so they come to play every game with great defense that is hard to score on, but they also lack interest in winning games as they do not try to go out and win but instead try not to lose matches. They do not have the talent on their squad to make a real run at the title and they have been trending in the wrong direction for a while now. Atletico Madrid has no real shot at winning the title this year and they will even be lucky just to make it back in the top 4 at all. RecommendationsThe oddsmakers want it to seem like the La Liga title race in Spain is already over when in reality it is just getting started now that the transfer window is nearing its end and there is still an entire 2nd half of the season to go. Barcelona is a massive favorite to win it right now and although they may be in the best position to win it at the moment, this is way too much to pay for them when there is still a very good team just a few points away and still plenty of matches left for Barcelona to blow it. The most value there is in this league is to take Real Madrid at +240 to win the La Liga title as they are only 5 points behind with 20 matches to go in the season and they are the defending Champions as well so they will not go down easily. The league is pretty much dominated by Barcelona and Real Madrid as it has been for years but if looking for some extra value then it is also worth it to take Real Sociedad at +125 to win the La Liga title without Barcelona and Real Madrid included as some books will offer this and Real Sociedad is easily the best team in this league behind those two.

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