The XFL Championship game was played Saturday night. I released the Arlington Renegades +6 as my XFL Football Game of the Year 12 days ago, on May 1, following the conclusion of the semi-final games. At kickoff, the Renegades were a 9.5-point underdog at Circa Sportsbook on the closing line. Three hours before the game, I received an email from a client. He wrote, "all the money is on DC. Doesn't make me feel confident in (your Game of the Year) pick now." Even though the steam was on the other side, I wasn't concerned. I've been handicapping sports since 1978, and tracking point spread movement along the way. One of the many things I've learned in my 45 years of handicapping is that you cannot simply "follow the money" if you want to be a successful bettor. I don't even pay attention to the money moves when I analyze the games. Indeed, most of the time (like here, with my XFL play), I'm releasing my picks at the start of the football week, or early in the morning with basketball, before the money has even come in on a side.Anyway, as I mentioned, I do track point spread movement -- even though it never even comes into play when I make my selections. And one of the things I have been aware of is that the money has been HORRIBLE in these XFL and USFL football leagues. On podcasts, I have often called these minor football leagues the "Overreaction Leagues." What I mean by that is bettors and oddsmakers -- most likely due to the short histories of these leagues -- completely overreact to small samples of data. I've hit 64% in the XFL/USFL the last two years by often taking advantage of what I've considered to be overreactions.So, when the line on Arlington moved from +6 to +9.5, my confidence wasn't daunted, given how bad the money has been this year in the USFL and XFL games. Of course, I would have rather had +9.5 than +6. But it didn't matter, as Arlington blew out DC from the get-go, and won outright, 35-26, for an easy XFL Game of the Year Winner. Let's take a look at this year's XFL and USFL games to see just how bad the money has been (games that didn't move at least a half-point at Circa Sportsbook aren't listed). All results are based on the closing line at Circa.XFL Football LeagueWeek 1Renegades (Open -2, Close -3.5), LoseRoughnecks (Open PK, Close -3), WinSea Dragons (Open +1, Close -3), LoseWeek 2Sea Dragons (Open +2, Close -4.5), LoseVipers (Open +1, Close -4), LoseBrahmas (Open -1, Close-4), WinRoughnecks (Open -3, Close -4.5), WinWeek 3Sea Dragons (Open PK, Close -4), TieRenegades (Open -6, Close -8), LoseRoughnecks (Open -4, Close -5), WinWeek 4Sea Dragons (Open -3, Close -5.5), WinRoughnecks (Open -9, Close -9.5), WinVipers (Open +7, Close +5.5), LoseBattlehawks (Open -2, Close -4), WinWeek 5Roughnecks (Open -3, Close -6.5), LoseBattlehawks (Open +3, Close +2), LoseGuardians (Open +9, Close +7), WinBrahmas (Open +2, Close +1), LoseWeek 6Sea Dragons (Open -6, Close -8.5), LoseVipers (Open +4, Close +2), LoseBrahmas (Open +5, Close +4), WinRoughnecks (Open +3, Close +2), LoseWeek 7Sea Dragons (Open -4, Close -5), WinGuardians (Open +12, Close +9), WinRoughnecks (Open -3, Close -4), LoseWeek 8Battlehawks (Open -4, Close -5), LoseGuardians (Open +2, Close -2), LoseRoughnecks (Open -4, Close -6.5), LoseSea Dragons (Open +2, Close -1.5), LoseWeek 9Roughnecks (Open -6, Close -6.5), LoseBrahmas (Open -1, Close -2), TieDefenders (Open -8, Close -10), LoseBattlehawks (Open -2, Close -3.5), LoseWeek 10Battlehawks (Open -7, Close -9), WinDefenders (Open -3, Close -4.5), LoseRoughnecks (Open +3, Close PK), WinSea Dragons (Open -6, Close -11.5), WinPlayoffs - SemifinalsRoughnecks (Open -6, Close -8), LoseSea Dragons (Open +6, Close PK), LosePlayoffs - ChampionshipDefenders (Open -6, Close -9.5), LoseThis season, in the XFL Football league, the sides that drew the money went 14-24-2 ATS.USFL Football LeagueWeek 1Stars (Open -2, Close -3.5), WinBreakers (Open -3, Close -7), TieWeek 2Breakers (Open -4, Close -7.5), LoseShowboats (Open +9, Close +5.5), LoseGenerals (Open -2, Close -7), WinStars (Open -3, Close -4), LoseWeek 3Stallions (Open -5, Close -8), LoseGamblers (Open +2, Close -8), LoseStars (Open -4, Close -7), LosePanthers (Open -3, Close -6), LoseWeek 4Gamblers (Open +3, Close +2), WinGenerals (Open +4, Close +2), LoseStallions (Open -6, Close -10), LoseWeek 5Maulers (Open +4, Close +3), WinGamblers (Open +6, Close +5.5), WinGenerals (Open -5, Close -7), LoseBreakers (Open -7, Close -7.5), LoseWeek 6Maulers (Open PK, Close -3), LoseStallions (Open -3, Close -5), WinBreakers (Open -6, Close -8), LoseGenerals (Open +3, Close -5.5), LoseWeek 7Stallions (Open -1, Close -4), TieMaulers (Open +4, Close -3), LoseGamblers (Open -3, Close -4), LoseGenerals (Open -4, Close -7.5), LoseWeek 8Maulers (Open +3, Close +1.5), WinStallions (Open -6, Close -7.5), LoseGenerals (Open +2, Close -3), Lose Breakers (Open -2, Close -3), WinWeek 9Maulers (Open +4, Close -2), WinShowboats (Open -1, Close -2), LoseGamblers (Open +5, Close +4.5), LoseGenerals (Open +4, Close -2.5), WinWeek 10Maulers (Open +4, Close +3.5), WinShowboats (Open +5, Close +4), LoseStars (Open +3.5, Close -1), LosePlayoffs - SemifinalsMaulers (Open +1, Close -3.5), WinBreakers (Open +4, Close +3.5), LosePlayoffs - ChampionshipStallions (Open -7, Close -9.5), Win[Editor's Note: This article was originally written May 13, but has been updated throughout the USFL season following the initial publication.]In the USFL Football league, the sides that drew the money went 13-24-2 ATS.What we can see from this is that if you followed the money, you would have gone 27-48-4 ATS combined in XFL and USFL Football games this season.The bottom line is that if one wants to succeed at sports handicapping, it's best to have a sound methodology, and to stay true to it, while ignoring things like what others are betting on. I couldn't care less where the money has gone, or what the public is betting on. I don't go with or against either of those things; I just march to the beat of my own drum.Good luck, as always...Al McMordie
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