Alabama Lived by the 3 -- and Then It (Predictably) Died by the 3
The Alabama Crimson Tide would probably beat every team in the country if they were making their 3s. They went into the Sweet Sixteen ranked 8th in the nation by taking 47.5% of their shots from behind the arc. If they get hot, then everyone one of their opponents would be in deep trouble.But the thing about head coach Nate Oaks' team, one could say that about another 50 or 100 teams in the country. With "The Analytics" gaining more influence with their ingenious discovery that three points are more than two points, many teams bank their strategy on making 3s. We certainly caught the wrong end of that stick earlier this month fading Arizona State in the play-in game and then Northwestern in the first round of the Big Dance. Being on the wrong end of a red-hot shooting night is simply part of the deal when investing daily in college and NBA basketball. The Crimson Tide were a great team because their defense is so good that it offers them a great Plan B if they are only making an average number of their 3-pointers. But Alabama was not likely to cover big-point spreads against good teams if they are not nailing a high percentage of the 3s they take. They went into their Sweet Sixteen game against San Diego State as a 6.5-point favorite. They were only making 34.1% of their 3-pointers, ranking 272nd in the nation, going into that game — and their proficiency from behind the arc dropped to 33.2% when playing away from home. In their last ten games away from home, they were only making 33.0% of their shots from behind the arc -- and that meant they were actually a little below base-level efficiency in using “math” to their advantage by lauding almost half of their shots from distance. Alabama ranked 344th in the nation in terms of consistency from game to game. The reasoning above was one of the reasons we endorsed San Diego State as our Sweet Sixteen Underdog of the Year. The Aztecs played with a style that could give the Tide fits. San Diego State is a physical team that plays elite-level defense. They will slow the pace to a crawl — using “math” to their advantage by limiting Alabama's scoring chances and letting the pressure of the moment kick in for this number one seed. The Aztecs are loaded with experience with three seniors and two juniors in the starting lineup with depth on the bench. Despite their opponents attempting 40.5% of their shots from behind the arc, ranking 288th in the nation, those shots are only falling at a 28.7% rate which is the fourth-best mark in the nation. In their last ten games on the road, not only did San Diego State hold their opponents to 25.5% shooting from behind the arc, they lead the nation in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Alabama averages 10 made 3s per game from their 30 shots on average from distance. But the Aztecs had covered the point spread in 10 straight games after 15 games into the season against teams averaging 8 or more made 3s per game. San Diego State not only plays with a deliberate pace on offense but their opponents take 18.5 seconds per possession, ranking as the 346th slowest in the nation. The Aztecs crash the glass and outrebound their opponents by +4.9 Rebounds Per-Game — and the Crimson Tide had failed to cover the point spread in 15 of their last 21 games after 15 games into the season against teams who outrebound their opponents by +4.0 or more RPG. Granted, San Diego State does not use “math” to their advantage on offense since they like to take midrange jumpers — but Alabama’s focus on taking away from shots from 3-point land plays into the Aztecs' hands in this matchup. The Crimson Tide were due for a visit from the Regression Gods in this regard as the 32% their opponents are shooting from midrange deviates significantly from the expected 38% field goal percentage based on national averages from where those shots are being taken. Alabama also ranked 290th in the nation in post-up defense — and they foul too much, ranking 222nd in the nation in defensive foul rate going into that game. San Diego State rewarded our faith by upsetting the Crimson Tide by a 71-64 score. Their perimeter defense frustrated Alabama as the Tide missed 24 of their 27 shots from behind the arc for an 11% shooting percentage from 3-point land. The Aztecs only made 20 of their 52 shots from inside the arc -- yet the advanced analytics do confirm that a 38.4% shooting percentage from 2-point shots does generate more points than making 11% of one's 27 shots from 3-point land (a 40 to 9 margin for those wishing for the math to be spelled out). In the end, Alabama lived by the 3 to earn the top seed in the NCAA Tournament, but this reliance did not offer them a good enough Plan B on the night they faced a good defensive team that was dedicated to thwarting 3-point shooting. The Variance Gods are fickle, indeed, and sometimes that is the most reliable intangible. Best of luck -- Frank.
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