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NHL Off the Post: December 27th

by Sean Murphy

Wednesday, Dec 27, 2023

The three-day NHL holiday break is over as the teams return to the ice on Wednesday with a full slate of action on tap. Here's a look at some news and notes from around the league as the New Year approaches.Shooting StarsDallas has predictably returned to form, winning three straight and five of its last six games leading up to the break. The Stars will draw the Blues in St. Louis on Wednesday, noting that they'll be out for revenge after dropping a 4-3 decision on the road earlier this month. The Blues check in off consecutive wins by two goals or more which is notable as they're 0-7 in their last seven games played in that situation. Interestingly, Dallas owns identical 10-6 records at home and on the road this season.Devils dueNew Jersey has been plagued by injuries but also sloppy play on its way to a mediocre 17-13-2 record this season. The Devils posted a 3-2 win over the Red Wings to snap a three-game losing streak prior to the break. Continuing a theme from last year's campaign, New Jersey has struggled in Newark, going 7-10 in front of the home faithful. Note that six of the Devils next eight games will be played on the road.Coming up snake eyesThe Golden Knights have dropped three straight games and will mercifully wrap up their four-game road trip with a stop in Anaheim on Wednesday. Vegas has the added distraction of playing in the annual Winter Classic in Seattle on New Year's Day. There's reason to believe in the Knights moving forward, however, as they'll play eight of their next 10 games on home ice following Wednesday's stop in Anaheim. Vegas is just 9-9 on the road this season but 12-5 at home. Power surgeTampa Bay hasn't shown the consistency we've come to expect in recent years but the Bolts did go into the break on a 7-3 run. Tampa Bay stares down at a three-game stretch at home that will begin with a showdown against the rival Panthers on Wednesday. The return of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy from injury has steadied the ship as the Lightning have gone 8-5 with him between the pipes and he has recorded a respectable .910 save percentage. Tampa will play seven of its next 10 contests on home ice.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, EPL, NHL and NCAAB Previews and Odds - 12/27/2023

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Dec 27, 2023

The Wednesday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The college football bowl season continues with four games. Virginia Tech plays Tulane on ESPN at 2 PM ET in the Military Bowl at the Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland. The Hokies are a 10.5-point favorite, with the total set at 44.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). West Virginia battles North Carolina on ESPN at 5:30 PM ET in Duke’s Mayo Bowl at the Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina. The Hokies are a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 56.5. Louisville faces USC on Fox at 8 PM ET in the Holiday Bowl at Petco Park in San Diego, California. The Cardinals are a 7-point favorite with a total of 59. Oklahoma State goes against Texas A&M on ESPN at 9 PM ET in the Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas. The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 54. The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Orlando Magic host the Philadelphia 76ers as a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 224.5. The Toronto Raptors travel to Washington to play the Wizards as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 238.5. The Milwaukee Bucks play in Brooklyn against the Nets at 7:40 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with a total of 240.5. Two NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Phoenix Suns are in Houston to play the Rockets as a 1-point road favorite with an over/under of 225.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder are at home against the New York Knicks as a 2-point favorite with a total of 239. The Dallas Mavericks host the Cleveland Cavaliers at 8:40 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 232.The National Hockey League has 14 games on its slate. Four NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The New Jersey Devils play at home against the Columbus Blue Jackets as a -265 money-line favorite with a total of 7. The New York Rangers are at home against the Washington Capitals as a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Florida Panthers as a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs play at home against the Ottawa Senators as a -166 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7. Two NHL games begin at 7:37 PM ET. The Boston Bruins visit Buffalo to play the Sabres on TNT as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The New York Islanders are at home against the Pittsburgh Penguins as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. Three more NHL games start at 8:07 PM ET. The Minnesota Wild host the Detroit Red Wings as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Carolina Hurricanes play in Nashville against the Predators as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Dallas Stars are in St. Louis against the Blues as a -166 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games begin at 9:07 PM ET. The Colorado Avalanche travel to Arizona to play the Coyotes as a -170 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Winnipeg Jets play in Chicago against the Blackhawks as a -225 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Calgary Flames play at home against the Seattle Kraken at 9:37 PM ET as a -148 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. Two more games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 PM ET. The Vegas Golden Knights are in Anaheim against the Ducks as a -238 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Los Angeles Kings are at home against the San Jose Sharks as a -360 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has three games involving Division I teams. None of these games are on national television. Matchweek 19 in the English Premier League continues with three matches. Two EPL matches start at 2:30 PM ET. Brentford hosts Wolverhampton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5. Chelsea plays at home against Crystal Palace as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester City visits Everton on the USA Network at 3:15 PM ET as a -1 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5.

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Big Questions Left In The NFL

by AAA Sports

Tuesday, Dec 26, 2023

Just call it Moving Week.Week 17 is the NFL’s equivalent to Saturday on the PGA Tour as teams maneuver for playoff spots, playoff home games and hope against hope that there are no major injuries heading into the playoffs.Lots of questions need to be answered.  Among them:WHO MOST NEEDS A HOME PLAYOFF GAME? Not much doubt on this. The Cowboys would give back all their presents to start the playoffs in Dallas, where they are 7-0 as opposed to 3-5 on the road. The last thing Dallas (10-5) wants is to travel to red-hot Tampa Bay, but leap-frogging the 11-4 Eagles and winning the East (and a home game) seems a bridge too far.WHO IN THE NFC HAS THE MOST MOMENTUM? Speaking of the Buccaneers, TB was left for dead after losing to Indianapolis in late November, but has won four straight and has averaged 31 in its last three games. Might be fool’s gold and a loss at home to New Orleans could put an end to the fun, but the Bucs are opening some eyes.WHO HAS THE MOST ISSUES? Just what is going on in Kansas City, where the Chiefs are angry with each other even though they are going to win the AFC West and get a home playoff game? Is it way too early to think that the Kardashians are off the hook and now there is a Taylor Swift Curse? The Chiefs’ road to the Super Bowl could now go through BOTH Miami and Baltimore.WHO IS THE TEAM NO ONE WANTS TO PLAY? Ask the 49ers, who got bent, folded, and mutilated – at home, no less – on Christmas by the Ravens. Baltimore has a top 5 offense, a top 6 defense, and is peaking at the right time. And that Lamar Jackson guy is pretty good. Remember six months ago any team could have had him for the right contract number.  Despite the loss, however, SF is still the betting favorite to win the Super Bowl at +210, with oddsmakers figuring that the loss to Baltimore was a one-off.WHO’S LEFT STANDING IN THE AFC? Five AFC teams enter Week 17 at 8-7. One of them will win the South, and one of the others from a group of Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Jacksonville, Indianapolis, and Houston will win at musical chairs and sneak into the final playoff spot. The insanely complicated tie-breaker rules will almost certainly be applied here, and right now the Colts seem to have the edge over several other teams.WHAT’S UP WITH BUFFALO? The Bills are in but will have to win at least one road game in the playoffs, and they have already lost at Denver, New England, and New York (Jets) this year. Still, Buffalo has won three in a row and is in a position to perhaps rest some key players this coming weekend in Foxboro and in a Week 18 matchup against Miami that is likely to be meaningless.WHICH NFL DIVISION CHAMP GETS THE BYE? San Francisco, Detroit, and Philadelphia head down the home stretch nose to nose, all at 11-4. The NFL is full of quicksand, but right now the Eagles seem to have the easier road home with games at home vs. Arizona and in New York against the Giants. San Francisco, licking wounds after the loss to Baltimore, gets to right the ship against the Commanders in Washington before closing against the Rams at home. Detroit has two nasty games – at Dallas and then at home against the Vikings.WHO’S THE MVP THIS SEASON? Heading into Week 16 it was Brock Purdy’s to lose, and he might just have done that with four interceptions in the awful loss to the Ravens. And it just so happens that the only player with a chance to catch Purdy was Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. LJ did nothing to hurt his chances at winning his second MVP, throwing for 252 yards, two TDs, and zero interceptions while Purdy was throwing four picks. The two performances flipped the MVP odds upside down, with Jackson now -150 and Purdy now third at +600. Niners RB Christian McCaffrey is ahead of Purdy at +400.  Had Purdy’s awful performance come in Week 3 he might have been able to survive it, but recency bias will likely end his chances.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA, NCAAF and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/26/2023

by Big Al Staff

Tuesday, Dec 26, 2023

The Tuesday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, and EPL action.The college football bowl season continues with three games on ESPN. Minnesota battles Bowling Green at 2 PM ET in the Quick Lane Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan. The Golden Gophers are on a four-game losing streak after their 28-14 loss at home to Wisconsin as a 2.5-point underdog on November 25th. The Falcons won for the fifth time in their last six games with a 34-10 victory at Western Michigan as a 3-point favorite on November 21st. Minnesota is a 3-point favorite, with the total set at 39.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Texas State faces Rice at 5:30 PM ET in the First Responder Bowl at the Gerald Ford Stadium in Dallas, Texas. The Bobcats ended a two-game losing streak with their 52-44 upset victory at home against South Alabama as a 6-point underdog on November 25th. The Owls have won two games in a row after their 24-21 victory against Florida Atlantic as a 4-point favorite on November 25th. Texas State is a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 60. Kansas goes against UNLV on ESPN at 9 PM ET in the Guaranteed Rate Arizona Bowl at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. The Jayhawks ended a two-game losing streak with a 49-16 victory at Cincinnati as a 7-point favorite on November 25th. The Rebels have lost two games in a row after a 44-20 loss to Boise State in the Mountain West Conference championship game as a 2.5-point underdog on December 2nd. Kansas is a 13-point favorite with a total of 67.5.The National Basketball Association has nine games on its docket. Two NBA games tip off at 7:10 PM ET. The Brooklyn Nets travel to Detroit to play the Pistons as a 6.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 232.5. The Orlando Magic play in Washington against the Wizards as a 7-point road favorite with a total of 237.5. Five NBA games start at 8:10 PM ET. The Chicago Bulls host the Atlanta Hawks as a 1-point favorite with an over/under of 234. The Houston Rockets plays at home against the Indiana Pacers as a 2-point favorite with a total of 238. The New Orleans Pelicans are at home against the Memphis Grizzlies as a 5-point favorite with an over/under of 229.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Minnesota Timberwolves as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 225.5. The Utah Jazz visit San Antonio to play the Spurs as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 242.5. The Sacramento Kings play in Portland against the Trail Blazers at 10:10 PM ET as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 236.5. The Los Angeles Clippers are at home against the Charlotte Hornets at 10:40 PM ET as an 11-point favorite with an over/under of 228.5. Matchweek 19 in the English Premier League begins with five matches on Boxing Day. Newcastle United plays at home against Nottingham Forest on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET as a -1 goal-line favorite with a total of 2.5 (all soccer odds from BetMGM). Two EPL matches begin at 10 AM ET. Bournemouth hosts Fulham on the USA Network as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Luton Town plays at Sheffield United in a pick ‘em match with a total of 2.5. Liverpool is at Burnley on the USA Network at 12:30 PM ET as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 3. Aston Villa plays at Manchester United on the USA Network at 3 PM ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NBA and NFL Previews and Odds - 12/25/2023

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Dec 25, 2023

The Monday sports card features NFL and NBA action.Week 16 of the NFL regular season concludes with three games. The Kansas City Chiefs host the Las Vegas Raiders on CBS at 1 PM ET. The Chiefs ended a two-game losing streak with their 27-17 victory at New England as a 10.5-point favorite last Sunday. The Raiders ended their three-game losing streak with their 63-21 victory against the Los Angeles Chargers as a 3-point favorite last Saturday. Kansas City is an 11-point favorite, with the total set at 40.5 (all odds from DraftKings).The Philadelphia Eagles play at home against the New York Giants on Fox at 4:30 PM ET. The Eagles lost their third game in a row with their 20-17 upset loss at Seattle as a 5-point favorite on Monday. The Giants were on a two-game winning streak before their 24-6 loss at New Orleans as a 6.5-point underdog on Sunday. Philadelphia is a 14-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5. The San Francisco 49ers are at home against the Baltimore Ravens on ABC at 8:15 PM ET. The 49ers are on a six-game winning streak after their 45-29 victory at Arizona as a 12-point favorite last Sunday. The Ravens are on a four-game winning streak after their 23-7 win at Jacksonville as a 4-point favorite on Sunday. San Francisco is a 6-point favorite, with a total of 46.5. The National Basketball Association has five games on its docket. The Milwaukee Bucks travel to New York to play the Knicks on ESPN at 12:10 PM ET. The Bucks are on a seven-game winning streak after their 130-111 victory in New York against the Knicks as a 2-point favorite on Saturday. The Knicks were on a two-game winning streak before that loss. Milwaukee is a 3.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 242. The Denver Nuggets host the Golden State Warriors on ABC and ESPN at 2:40 PM ET. The Nuggets are on a four-game winning streak after their 102-95 victory at Charlotte as a 10-point favorite on Saturday. The Warriors are on a five-game winning streak after their 126-108 win at home against Portland as an 8-point favorite on Saturday. Denver is a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 233. The Boston Celtics visit Los Angeles to play the Lakers on ABC and ESPN at 5:10 PM ET. The Celtics have won two straight games after their 145-108 victory in Los Angeles against the Clippers as a 4.5-point favorite on Saturday. The Lakers ended a four-game losing streak with a 129-120 upset victory at Oklahoma City as a 3.5-point underdog two days ago. Boston is a 3-point road favorite with a total of 234. The Miami Heat play at home against the Philadelphia 76ers on ESPN at 8:10 PM ET. The Heat won their second straight game with a 122-113 victory at home against Atlanta as a 1-point favorite on Friday. The 76ers are on a two-game winning streak after a 121-111 win at home against Toronto as an 8.5-point favorite on Friday. Miami is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 225.5. The Phoenix Suns are at home against the Dallas Mavericks on ESPN at 10:40 PM ET. The Suns are on a two-game losing streak after their 120-105 loss at Sacramento as a 3.5-point underdog on Friday. The Mavericks ended their three-game losing streak with a 144-119 victory against San Antonio as an 8-point underdog on Saturday. Phoenix is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 236.5. 

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The NBA On Christmas Day

by AAA Sports

Sunday, Dec 24, 2023

The NBA already has opened its Christmas present – the In-Season Tournament during which no stars suffered a major injury and the LeBron Lakers raising a trophy on national television – so it’s on to December 25 and the unofficial real start of the season. The 10 teams with the most hoop sex appeal will go at it in a smorgasbord of basketball before the hype machine takes a month off rather than fight the NFL playoffs, then we head into high gear again leading into the All-Star Game.To the Christmas menu:MILWAUKEE (-3.5) at NEW YORK – The Knicks will be trying to hang on while they hope against hope that C Mitchell Robinson will not be done for the season as New York continues to carve out a spot in Tier 2 of the Eastern Conference. The Bucks, meanwhile, are experiencing some major defensive problems after essentially replacing Swiss Army Knife Jrue Holiday for Damian Lillard’s offense. Win now and worry about tomorrow tomorrow is Milwaukee’s motto, but when veteran teams start to fade (cough Golden State cough), there aren’t many alternatives.INTERESTING BETTING NOTE: Bucks have been a solid over team this seasonGOLDEN STATE at DENVER (-5.5) – Klay Thompson bristles when asked about the drop in production, and he has been better as of late. It needs to continue, with Draymond Green suspended until who-knows-when and the pressure on Steph Curry building even more. It’s beyond weird to see the Warriors below .500 and staring at a possible re-visit to the lottery, but here we are. The defending-champion Nuggets, meanwhile, appear to have shaken off some early-season issues and a few uneven performances by Nikola Jokic.INTERESTING BETTING NOTE: At home, Denver is 11-2 SU and 7-6 ATSBOSTON (-4.5) at LOS ANGELES LAKERS – LeBron James may take a few games off to rest his 39-year-old legs, but this is not likely one of them. LBJ has had some epic efforts against Boston, and this looks like a message-sending game in case that the two cornerstone franchises meet again in a playoff Finals that would answer a lot of dreams in the NBA offices. The Celtics have stayed at or near the top of the NBA with a powerful Front 6 as they deal with expected injuries to Kristaps Porzingis and Holiday’s slow assimilation. Boston rains 3s – sometimes they fall, occasionally they don’t.INTERESTING BETTING NOTE: Jayson Tatum has only the 6th-best odds (+1600) to win the MVP AwardPHILADELPHIA at MIAMI (-1.5) – After escaping Toronto and getting rid of his James Harden migraine, Sixers HC Nick Nurse must feel like he’s been let out of jail. He has the 76ers on a pace to win 59 games – maybe or maybe not enough to overtake Boston but good footing heading into the playoffs. Casual fans used to seeing the ISO James Harden will be introduced to speedy Tyrese Maxey on Xmas Day. Miami’s modus operandi will remain unchanged – don’t fret too much about the regular season, get healthy for the playoffs and see if Jimmy Butler can carry them to a few series upsets.INTERESTING BETTING NOTE: Jaime Jaquez Jr. is playing huge minutes for the Heat and is behind only favorites Chet Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama in the Rookie of the Year odds. JJJ is at +5000.DALLAS at PHOENIX (-5.5) – When having three veteran stars doesn’t move the needle, what’s the next step? Four?  To be fair to the Suns, because of injuries, we haven’t really seen what the Durant-Booker-Beal Troika can do when firing on all cylinders. But Phoenix’s sluggish start is still a disappointment, and maybe a cautionary tale to teams chasing names. After 25 games this season, Brooklyn (which dumped Durant, Harden and Kyrie Irving) and Phoenix had each won 13. The Mavericks, strangely, have been better on the road than at home.INTERESTING BETTING NOTE: Over players on the Mavericks have been able to cash regularly (18-10)

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAB, and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/24/2023

by Big Al Staff

Sunday, Dec 24, 2023

The Sunday sports card features NFL, NCAAB, and EPL action.Week 16 of the NFL regular season continues with ten games. Seven NFL games kick off at 1 PM ET. The Detroit Lions travel to Minnesota to play the Vikings. The Lions won for the fifth time in their last seven games in a 42-17 victory against Denver as a 5.5-point favorite last Sunday. The Vikings lost for the third time in their last four games with their 27-24 loss in overtime at Cincinnati as a 3-point underdog on Sunday. Detroit is a 3-point road favorite, with the total set at 47.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise).The Atlanta Falcons host the Indianapolis Colts. The Falcons have lost two in a row after their 9-7 upset loss at Carolina as a 2.5-point favorite last week. The Colts won for the fifth time in their last six games with their 30-13 victory against Pittsburgh on Sunday. Atlanta is a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 44.5. The Cleveland Browns play in Houston against the Texans. The Browns won for the fifth time in their last seven games with their 20-17 victory as a 2.5-point favorite on Sunday. The Texans won for the fifth time in their last seven games with their 19-16 upset victory in overtime at Tennessee as a 3-point underdog last Sunday. Cleveland is a 3-point road favorite with a total of 40. The Seattle Seahawks are in Tennessee against the Titans. The Seahawks ended their four-game losing streak with a 20-17 upset victory at home against Philadelphia as a 5-point underdog on Monday. The Titans lost for the fifth time in their last seven games with their overtime loss to the Texans. Seattle is a 3-point road favorite with an over/under of 41.5.The New York Jets play at home against the Washington Commanders. The Jets lost for the sixth time in their last seven games with their 30-0 loss at Miami as a 7-point underdog on Sunday. The Commanders are on a five-game losing streak after their 28-20 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams as a 6.5-point underdog last Sunday. New York is a 3-point favorite with a total of 37.The Green Bay Packers visit Carolina to play the Panthers. The Packers are on a two-game losing streak after a 34-20 upset loss to Tampa Bay as a 3.5-point favorite last week. The Panthers ended a six-game losing streak with a 9-7 upset victory at home against Atlanta as a 2.5-point underdog on Sunday. Green Bay is a 4-point road favorite with an over/under of 38. Jacksonville Jaguars play in Tampa Bay against the Buccaneers. The Jaguars are on a three-game losing streak after their 23-7 loss to Baltimore as a 4-point underdog last Sunday. The Buccaneers are on a three-game winning streak after a 34-20 upset victory at Green Bay as a 3.5-point underdog on Sunday. Jacksonville is a 1-point road favorite with a total of 43.5. Two NFL games start at 4:25 PM ET. The Chicago Bears are at home against the Arizona Cardinals. The Bears were on a two-game winning streak before their loss at Cleveland. The Cardinals lost for the third time in their last four games in a 45-29 loss at home to San Francisco as a 12-point underdog on Sunday. Chicago is a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 43.5.The Miami Dolphins host the Dallas Cowboys. The Dolphins won for the fourth time in their last five games with their 30-0 victory against the New York Jets as a 7-point favorite on Sunday. The Cowboys were on a five-game winning streak before a 31-10 loss at Buffalo last week. Miami is a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 49. The Denver Broncos play at home against the New England Patriots on NBC at 8:15 PM ET for Sunday Night Football. The Broncos lost for the second time in their last three games in a 42-17 loss at Detroit as a 5.5-point underdog last week. The Patriots lost for the sixth time in their last seven games in a 27-17 loss at home to Kansas City as a 10.5-point underdog on Sunday. Denver is a 7.5-point favorite with an over/under of 35.5.The college basketball schedule has four games on national television in the Diamond Head Classic at the at the SimpliFi Arena at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. Temple faces Portland on ESPN2 at 1:30 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 141. Massachusetts battles Old Dominion on ESPN2 at 3:30 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 155. TCU plays Hawaii on ESPN2 at 6:30 PM ET as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 148.5. Nevada goes against Georgia Tech in the championship game of this tournament on ESPN at 9 PM ET as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 141.Matchweek 18 in the English Premier League concludes with one match. Chelsea plays at Wolverhampton on the USA Network at 8 AM ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5.

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NFL System of the Week - Dec 23, 2023

by Al McMordie

Saturday, Dec 23, 2023

When it's holiday time, I like to turn to my late season NFL systems.  And there's one I have been using for years to put some gifts under the Christmas tree.  It combines several of my favorite elements into one very dependable system.  Let's take a look.Faithful followers know that one of the things I love to do when betting on NFL games is to take teams off a loss.  The NFL is an up-and-down league, and when you can get a team off a loss rather than a win, you'll give yourself a slight edge (and even better if your team is off a loss, and its opponent is off a win).Another thing I love is playing on home underdogs (or even PK'em teams).  The edge is a slight one -- since 1980, they've cashed 51.7% of the time -- but I'd rather be on the 51.7% side than the 48.3% side!When it comes to betting on the NFL around holiday time, I love the following system:Play on any home underdog (or PK) in the final five weeks of the regular season if it is off a straight-up loss, and it owns a W/L percentage of .450 (or better).Since 1980, our merry little system has rolled to a 112-69-5 ATS record.Of course, there are certain subsets that do better than others.  Some of the ones that stand out include: Underdogs of +4.5 (or more) points have gone 27-12 ATS.Fading opponents off an ATS loss is 55-25-1 ATS.Monday Night Football home teams have gone 11-2 ATS. Last week, we did have the Monday Night Football home underdog in play, as Seattle (+4) upset Philadelphia, 20-17.This week, we don't have any plays from my favored subsets, but we do have two plays from the general 112-69-5 ATS system.One game is Saturday, while the other is Sunday.Play on:  Pittsburgh +3 over Cincinnati, and Minnesota +3 over Detroit.Good luck, as always,Al McMordie

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3 Bowl ATS Angles To Watch

by Kyle Hunter

Saturday, Dec 23, 2023

College football bowl season is in full swing now. There are several angles to keep an eye on that could help you be successful betting college football during this tricky time of the season. Let’s take a look at three of those angles today. Bowl Angle #1- Underdogs Against The Public-  Since 2006 Bowl Underdogs Who Receive 40% or Less of the Bets are 172-127 ATS (57.4%). The public hasn’t done well betting in bowl season. The public generally likes to bet quite a few favorites. In this case, you are simply looking at out of favor underdogs who could hold value because the line has been moved too much in favor of the opposite team.I will note that sometimes the public bet percentages can be a bit shaky. Can you trust that the numbers are perfectly up to date? I’m not so sure. Still, this type of angle is helpful in realizing that heavily public sides have done poorly year after year. Bowl Angle #2- Low ATS Bowl Underdogs. Since 2006 Underdogs who have covered the spread in less than 50% of their regular season games are a whopping 120-88 ATS (57.7% ATS). This angle is all about taking teams that have made it to bowl season, but they aren’t teams who have covered at a high rate throughout the year. The teams with a really high ATS cover rate during the regular season tend to carry a point spread tax on them this time of the year. On the other hand, teams who have covered a small percentage of games, but are still good enough to get into bowl season- these are teams who have carried great value in these postseason contests. I think this is a strong angle that should continue to work in the future.  At the date of this publication on December 23, there are seven games to go:  Northern Illinois (Dec 23), Tulane (Dec 27), USC (Dec 27), Boston College (Dec 28), Memphis (Dec 29), Toledo (Dec 30) and Wisconsin (Jan 1). Bowl Angle #3 Good Defenses in Bowl Games A Team Who Allows 3.6 Yards Per Carry Or Less and a Maximum of 5 Yards Per Play. These strong defensive teams are 319-243 ATS (56.8% ATS) since 2006 in bowl games.Yes offense is more important than it was in the past when the defenses could just dominate, but defense has still been predictive when it comes to covering spreads in bowl season. The best defenses have been great against the number. Inside this angle, the teams listed above with great defenses who are also underdogs are an impressive 155-103 ATS (60% ATS) with an ROI of 16%. Look for underdogs who are excellent on defense and you’ll have a good starting point. At the date of publication the teams that fit this underdog with a strong defense angle are: Northwestern (Dec 23), Bowling Green (Dec 26), Tulane (Dec 27), Oklahoma (Dec 28), Rutgers- depending on the line at your book (Dec 28), Kentucky (Dec 29), Ole Miss (Dec 30), Maryland (Dec 30), Fla St (Dec 30), Toledo (Dec 30), Alabama (Jan 1), and Wisconsin (Jan 1). 

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/23/2023

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Dec 23, 2023

The Saturday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.Week 16 of the NFL regular season continues with two games. The Cincinnati Bengals travel to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers on NBC at 4:30 PM ET as a 3-point road favorite with the total set at 38 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Buffalo Bills play in Los Angeles against the Chargers on Peacock at 8 PM ET as a 12.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 44. The college football bowl season continues with seven games. Two NCAAF bowl games kick off at noon ET. Troy battles Duke on ABC in the Birmingham Bowl at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama. The Trojans are a 7-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Arkansas State faces Northern Illinois on ESPN in the Camellia Bowl at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama. The Red Wolves are a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 54.5. Two NCAAF bowl games start at 3:30 PM ET. James Madison plays Air Force on ABC at the Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. The Dukes are a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 40.5. Utah State goes against Georgia State on ESPN at Albertsons Stadium in Boise, Idaho. The Aggies are a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 59.5. South Alabama battles Eastern Michigan on ESPN at 7 PM ET in the 68 Ventures Bowl at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile, Alabama. The Jaguars are a 17-point favorite with a total of 44.5. Utah plays Northwestern on ABC at 7:30 PM ET in the Las Vegas Bowl at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Utes are a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 41.5. San Jose State faces Coastal Carolina on ESPN at 10:30 PM ET in the Hawaii Bowl at Clarence T.C. Ching Field in Honolulu, Hawaii. The Spartans are a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 48. The National Basketball Association has 13 games on its docket. The Milwaukee Bucks are in New York to play the Knicks at 12:40 PM ET as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 241.5. The Boston Celtics visit Los Angeles to play the Clippers at 3:40 PM ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 230. Three NBA games begin at 7:10 PM ET. The Denver Nuggets play in Charlotte against the Hornets as an 8.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 226.5. The Indiana Pacers host the Orlando Magic as a 2-point favorite with a total of 244. The New Orleans Pelicans play at home against the Houston Rockets as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 223.5. Three NBA games start at 7:40 PM ET. The Memphis Grizzlies are in Atlanta to play the Hawks as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 240.5. The Brooklyn Nets are at home against the Detroit Pistons as a 9.5-point favorite with an over/under of 233. The Toronto Raptors host the Utah Jazz as a 5.5-point favorite, with a total of 229. Four NBA games tip off at 8:10 PM ET. The Chicago Bulls play at home against the Cleveland Guardians as a 2-point favorite with an over/under of 220.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder are at home against the Los Angeles Lakers as a 4-point favorite with a total of 238. The Dallas Mavericks host the San Antonio Spurs as a 7-point favorite with an over/under of 239. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Portland Trail Blazers as a 9-point favorite with a total of 233. The Sacramento Kings are at home against the Minnesota Timberwolves at 10:10 PM ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 232.5. The National Hockey League has 14 games on its slate. The Dallas Stars travel to Nashville to play the Predators at 2:07 PM ET as an a-135 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.  The Florida Panthers host the Vegas Golden Knights at 3:07 PM ET as a -122 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Five NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The Boston Bruins play in Minnesota against the Wild as a -115 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Toronto Maple Leafs are in Columbus to play the Blue Jackets as a -198 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7. The New Jersey Devils play at home against the  Detroit Red Wings as a -175 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Pittsburgh Penguins visit Ottawa with both teams priced as a -110 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Tampa Bay Lightning play in Washington against the Capitals as a -142 money-line road favorite with a total of 6.5. Two NHL games start at 7:37 PM ET. The New York Rangers are at home against Buffalo against the Sabres as a -192 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5 The Carolina Hurricanes host the New York Islanders as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 6. Two more NHL games start at 8:07 PM ET. The Seattle Kraken are in Anaheim to play the Ducks as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The St. Louis Blues play at home against the Chicago Blackhawks as a -238 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Colorado Avalanche are at home against the Arizona Coyotes at 9:07 PM ET as a -225 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two more games conclude the NHL card at 10:07 PM ET. The Los Angeles Kings host the Calgary Flames as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 6. The Vancouver Canucks play at home against the San Jose Sharks as a -305 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has six games on national television. Providence is at home against the Butler on FS1 at noon ET as a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 141. Xavier hosts Seton Hall on FS1 at 2 PM ET as a 4-point favorite with an over/under of 147. Arizona goes against Florida Atlantic on Fox at 3 PM ET in the Desert Classic at T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas. The Wildcats are a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 162. Two NCAAB games begin at 4 PM ET. Memphis plays at home against Vanderbilt on CBS as a 16.5-point favorite with an over/under of 150. Villanova travels to DePaul on FS1 as a 12.5-point road favorite with a total of 135. Connecticut is at home against St. John’s on Fox at 8 PM ET as a 10.5-point favorite with an over/under of 147.5. Matchweek 18 in the English Premier League continues with six matches. Manchester United plays at West Ham United on the USA Network at 7:30 AM ET in a pick ‘em match with a total of 3. Four more EPL matches start at 10 AM ET. Fulham hosts Burnley as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with an over/under 2.5. Tottenham plays at home against Everton as a -0.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3. Newcastle United is at Luton Town on the USA Network as a -1 goal-line road favorite with an over/under of 2.5. Bournemouth visits Nottingham Forest in a pick ‘em game with a total of 2.5. Arsenal travels to Liverpool on NBC at 12:30 PM ET in a pick ‘em showdown with a total of 2.5.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/22/2023

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Dec 22, 2023

The Friday sports card features NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.The college football bowl season continues with one game. Central Florida battles Georgia Tech on ESPN at 6:30 PM ET in the Gasparilla Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The Knights won for the third time in their last four games in a 27-13 victory against Houston as a 14-point favorite on November 25th. The Yellow Jackets lost for the second time in their previous three games in a 31-23 loss at home against Georgia as a 24-point underdog on November 25th. Central Florida is a 5-point favorite, with the total set at 66.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The National Basketball Association has six games on its docket. The Philadelphia 76ers host the Toronto Raptors at 7:10 PM ET as an 8-point favorite with an over/under of 228.5. The Denver Nuggets travel to Brooklyn to play the Nets at 7:40 PM ET as a 4-point road favorite with a total of 230. Two NBA games tip off at 8:10 PM ET. The Miami Heat play at home against the Atlanta Hawks as a 1.5-point favorite with an over/under of 238.5. The Houston Rockets are at home against the Dallas Mavericks as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 226.5. Two more games conclude the NBA card at 10:10 PM ET. The Sacramento Kings host the Phoenix Suns as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of total of 245.5. The Golden State Warriors play at home against the Washington Wizards as a 12-point favorite with a total of 248. The National Hockey League has four games on its slate. The Detroit Red Wings are at home against the Philadelphia Flyers at 7:07 PM ET as a -135 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The New York Rangers host the Edmonton Oilers at 7:37 PM ET as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Boston Bruins visit Winnipeg to play the Jets at 8:07 PM ET as a -125 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 5.5. The Chicago Blackhawks play at home against the Montreal Canadiens at 8:37 PM ET as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The college basketball schedule has seven games on national television. Nevada faces TCU on ESPNU  5 PM ET in the Diamond Head Classic at the at the SimpliFi Arena at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. SMU plays at Murray State on the CBS Sports Network at 6 PM ET as a 5.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 140.5. Marquette is at home against Georgetown on FS1 at 7 PM ET as a 17-point favorite with a total of 151. Two NCAAB games start at 9 PM ET. Illinois goes against Missouri on FS1 at 9 PM ET at the Enterprise Center in Saint Louis, Missouri, as a 6.5-point favorite with an over/under of 150.5. UCLA hosts Maryland on ESPN2 as a 3-point favorite, with a total of 129. Georgia Tech plays at Hawaii on ESPN2 at 11 PM ET in the Diamond Head Classic. Massachusetts battles Portland on ESPN2 at 1:30 AM ET in the Diamond Head Classic. Matchweek 18 in the English Premier League continues with one match. Aston Villa plays at home against Sheffield United on the USA Network at 3 PM ET as a -2 goal-line favorite at BetMGM with an over/under of 3.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB and EPL Previews and Odds - 12/21/2023

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Dec 21, 2023

The Thursday sports card features NFL, NCAAF, NBA, NHL, NCAAB, and EPL action.Week 16 of the NFL regular season kicks off with one game. The Los Angeles Rams host the New Orleans Saints on Amazon Prime at 8:15 PM ET as a 4-point favorite with the total set at 46. The college football bowl season continues with one game. Syracuse battles South Florida on ESPN at 8 PM ET in the Boca Raton Bowl at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida. The Orange are a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 56. The National Basketball Association has eight games on its docket. The Utah Jazz travel to Detroit to play the Pistons at 7:10 PM ET as a 1.5-point road favorite with a total of 238. The Cleveland Cavaliers play at home against the New Orleans Pelicans at 7:40 PM ET as a -1 point favorite with an over/under of 228.  Four NBA games tip off at 8:10 PM ET. The Chicago Bulls are at home against the San Antonio Spurs as a 3.5-point favorite with a total of 230.5. The Memphis Grizzlies host the Indiana Pacers as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 247. The Milwaukee Bucks play at home against the Orlando Magic as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 238.5. The Oklahoma City Thunder are at home against the Los Angeles Clippers as a 4.5-point favorite with an over/under of 224. The Minnesota Timberwolves host the Los Angeles Lakers at 9:10 PM ET as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 224. The Portland Trail Blazers play at home against the Washington Wizards at 10:10 PM ET as a 3.5-point favorite with an over/under of 240. The National Hockey League has 12 games on its slate. Six NHL games drop the puck at 7:07 PM ET. The Philadelphia Flyers are at home against the Nashville Predators as a -122 money-line favorite with a total of 5.5. The Carolina Hurricanes visit Pittsburgh to play the Penguins as a -122 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Tampa Bay Lightning host the Vegas Golden Knights as a -115 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Toronto Maple Leafs play in Buffalo against the Sabres as a -162 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6.5. The Washington Capitals are in Columbus to play the Blue Jackets as a -120 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The Florida Panthers play at home against the St. Louis Blues as a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6.5. Two NHL games begin at 8:07 PM ET.  The New Jersey Devils are at home against the Vancouver Canucks as a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5. The Minnesota Wild host the Montreal Canadiens as a -218 money-line favorite with an over/under of 6. The Colorado Avalanche play at home against the Ottawa Senators at 9:07 PM ET as a -180 money-line favorite with a total of 6.5.  The Calgary Flames travel to Anaheim to play the Ducks at 10:07 PM ET as a -148 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 6. The Arizona Coyotes play in San Jose against the Sharks at 10:37 PM ET as a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 6. The college basketball schedule has seven games on national television. Nevada faces Temple on ESPNU at 3 PM ET in the Diamond Head Classic at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu, Hawaii. The Wolf Pack are an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 147.5. TCU goes against Old Dominion on ESPNU at 5 PM ET in the Diamond Head Classic as a 15-point favorite with a total of 146.5. Kentucky is in Louisville on ESPN at 6 PM ET as a 13.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 155. Penn State is at home against Le Mayne on Peacock at 7 PM ET as a 19-point favorite with a total of 153. Two more NCAAB games tip off at 9 PM ET. San Diego State hosts Stanford on the CBS Sports Network at 9 PM ET as an 8.5-point favorite with an over/under of 144. Massachusetts plays Georgia Tech on ESPN2 in the Diamond Head Classic as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 150.5. Hawaii is at home against Portland on ESPN2 at 11 PM ET in the Diamond Head Classic as a 9-point favorite with an over/under of 149.5. Matchweek 18 in the English Premier League begins with one match. Brighton and Hove Albion play at Crystal Palace on the USA Network at 3 PM ET as a -0.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 2.5. 

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