The summer is quickly approaching and with that comes the 2024 edition of the Copa America. The Copa America will have a new look this year as it will be hosted in North America, primarily in the United States, with 6 North/Central American countries joining the 10 South American countries. The 1st match of the tournament will be kicking off on Thursday, June 20, between Argentina and Canada. Argentina are the defending champions from the last Copa America as well as being the reigning World Cup champions from 2022 Qatar. There are many different ways to bet on the Copa America, specifically with group betting, so now it is time to see where the value is when betting on the group stage.
Group Winner
Ecuador +160: Ecuador is coming into this tournament at +160 to win Group B. They are in a group with Mexico, Jamaica, and Venezuela. Mexico is the favorite to win the group at +110, but they have been declining over the last few years as a lot of their talent has been aging. They did not make it out of the group stage at the last World Cup and they have even struggled recently in their own continent. USA has recently dethroned them as the superpower in North America and a lot of that has to do with the aging squad and the lack of attacking talent. Venezuela and Jamaica are the two weakest teams in the group and Jamaica is a team that Mexico sees often in CONCACAF competitions so they will not cause too much trouble for them, but the same goes for Ecuador with those two teams. Ecuador and Mexico do not play each other until the final round of the group stage and it is very likely that both could be going into that match tied for 1st in the group, so that match is going to likely decide who wins the group. The difference here is that Mexico has an aging squad that has been on the decline over the last few years while Ecuador has a lot of young talent that is starting to grow into their roles on the pitch. Ecuador also has a lot of good depth in their squad as their domestic league has been producing a lot more talent in recent years, and the teams from Ecuador have been performing much better in continental play as well. Ecuador has been building a very good team for years and they performed well at the last World Cup despite not getting out of the group, but this is a competition that they can really break out in, especially with this particular group, so they have a very good chance of winning this group as they are good enough to beat Mexico, but they can also definitely come away with a draw in that match to win the group on goal differential if it comes down to it. Ecuador at +160 to win Group B.
Uruguay -134: Uruguay is coming into this tournament at -134 to win Group C. They are in a group with USA, Panama, and Bolivia. This is a group that Uruguay is the strongest team in and they are going to qualify with the other 2 teams in this group being Panama and Bolivia. Bolivia is one of the worst teams in all of South America right now and they have been one of the worst teams in the continent for years, their only real advantage being the extremely high altitude they play at which will not be a factor here. Panama is a team that has been getting better in recent CONCACAF competitions, but they always fall short against a stronger opponent so neither of these bottom 2 teams are going to pose much of a threat to Uruguay or USA. Uruguay and USA do not meet until round 3 of the group stage so there is a very good chance that this is the match that will decide who wins the group, and Uruguay does have the edge here despite USA being the host nation. USA has been the dominant team in North America over the last few years, but the quality of the teams in South America are nowhere near the teams in North America. USA did make it out of the group stage at the last World Cup while Uruguay did not make it out of theirs, but USA has also had some troubles recently as they lost in the CONCACAF Gold Cup last year before winning the Nations League a few months ago, and consistency has been a real issue for them recently. Having the home crowd on their side will help out a lot, but Uruguay has been developing a lot of younger talent themselves as they phase the older players out of the squad, and they have improved a lot since the World Cup as they are in 2nd place in South America for the World Cup qualifiers right now after 6 matches. Uruguay has the quality to beat USA on the final matchday and there is also a good chance they will have the better goal differential going into that match so they would only need a draw to win the group. USA also has to deal with Panama in the group who is not a strong team, but that is the team that beat kicked them out of the Gold Cup last year in penalties after a draw so any points dropped in that match could see USA’s chances of winning the group diminish. Uruguay at -134 to win Group C.
Bottom of the Group
Venezuela +220: Venezuela is coming into this tournament at +220 to finish at the bottom of Group B. Venezuela is in a group with Mexico, Ecuador, and Jamaica. Mexico and Ecuador are the much stronger teams in this group so it is likely that those will be the 2 teams qualifying from this group. That leaves Venezuela in the battle for 3rd place with Jamaica, and Jamaica has the edge here. Venezuela has been one of the worst teams in South America for years as they have finished at the bottom of the table for World Cup qualifying many times over the last decade. They have been in better form recently as they have played 6 World Cup qualifying matches over the last year and are currently in a qualifying spot at the moment, but this is still a team that severely lacks talent in their squad. They have no real star talent on their team to lean on and they do not have a lot of depth either. It does not help that Venezuela also has one of the worst domestic leagues in all of South America right now. Venezuela recently drew with Ecuador in the World Cup qualifiers over the last year, but that was also a match that was at home and they are not going to have that same luxury here. Ecuador has a lot more talent and can easily beat Venezuela at a neutral location. It is likely that Venezuela and Jamaica will both lose each of their matches against Ecuador and Mexico, so this could come down to the final round when Jamaica and Venezuela play each other and right now, the edge goes to Jamaica here as they have not been bad in their CONCACAF competitions over the last 2 years as well as having some Premier League talent on their side as well. Jamaica is better than Venezuela with the talent they have and they are going to finish higher in this group. Venezuela at +220 to finish at the bottom of Group B.
Bolivia -120: Bolivia is coming into this tournament at -120 to finish at the bottom of Group C. They are in a group with Uruguay, USA, and Panama. Bolivia is one of the worst teams in all of South America and they have been one of the worst teams in South America going back over the last 2 decades, finishing near the bottom of the group in almost every World Cup qualifier over the last 20 years. They have a very strong home advantage as they play at a very high altitude, but even with that advantage, it has not helped them much over the years and now that the advantage is gone in a tournament like this, they really have nothing going for them here. They do not have much experience playing in these international competitions as they never really qualify for the World Cup, and they also lost all 4 of their matches in the group stage at the last Copa America. Bolivia is in a group that has Uruguay and USA as the 2 strongest teams in that group and they are not winning or even drawing either of those matches as both of those teams are much too strong for them. Uruguay also has a very good record when they play Bolivia while USA is going to have the home advantage in that match so it will be too much for Bolivia in both matches. That leaves them likely fighting for 3rd place in the group with Panama, but Panama is not that bad of a team and they have more talent than Bolivia does. Panama also has more experience in these competitions as they have been playing in a lot of CONCACAF competitions recently, and they have been in great form in these over the last 2 years. They did not make it to the last World Cup in 2022 but they have stepped up their game since then and have been in great form. Last year, they went to the final of the CONCACAF Gold Cup without losing a single match in the competition until they lost to Mexico 1-0 in the final. They also did very well in the CONCACAF Nations League which ended back in March, once again not losing a match in the competition until the semifinal which they lost 3-0 to Mexico and then 1-0 to Jamaica in the 3rd place match, but they still went very deep into the tournament. Panama has been improving a lot over the last 2 years and they have a better team than Bolivia does so they are going to finish in 3rd place in this group as that is a match they can win in the group stage. Bolivia at -120 to finish at the bottom of Group C.
Group Qualification
Canada +250: Canada is coming into this tournament at +250 to qualify from the group stage. They are in Group A with Argentina, Chile, and Peru, but this is not a very strong group at all. Argentina is by far the best team in the group and will likely finish with all 9 points as none of the teams in the group have the talent to even challenge them. That is going to make the battle for 2nd place very messy as the 2nd place team could go through with very little points. Canada failed to get out of the group stage at the last World Cup, losing all 3 of their matches in the group, but they gained valuable experience which they will be able to use in this group stage. This is more of a knock on the other 2 teams in the group as Canada has not been in great form over the last 2 years since that World Cup, but neither have Chile or Peru. Both Chile and Peru failed to even make the last World Cup, and neither side has been good since then either. Chile is currently sitting in the bottom 3 of the table for the South American World Cup qualifiers after 6 matches, missing the next World Cup if the qualifiers ended now, and Peru is currently sitting at the bottom of that same table. Neither side has a good attack either as Peru has only scored 1 goal in their 6 matches over the last year while Chile has scored 3 goals in their 6 matches. Peru is also a team that lacks a lot of talent in their squad while Chile has a lot of talent in theirs, but most of the talent in Chile’s squad is also way past their prime. Canada has more talent on the attacking end which is going to be key in this group as that will be the difference for the 2nd place finisher. Canada is not going to go far in this tournament, but with this specific group, they have the talent to get out of it with 2 of the worst teams in South America right now occupying the bottom of that group. Canada at +250 to qualify.
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