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Champions League Futures (2024/25 Season)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

The Champions League qualifiers have concluded and with that comes the start of the Champions League season on Tuesday, September 17. Real Madrid are the defending champions of the competition, but this season they will be rolling out a new format for the early stages. There will no longer be a group stage but instead it will be replaced by a league phase where all teams play 8 random matches decided by the draw, 4 home and 4 away, and all teams will have to fight for points to finish in the top 24. The top 8 will automatically qualify while the top 9-24 will have to play in a play-off. With the start of the competition just around the corner now, it is time to see who has the best chance of winning the Champions League Title this season.  To Win Outright Manchester City +200: Manchester City is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Man City fell short in Champions League last season but they did win the Premier League Title and they still have one of the better squads in all of Europe. Getting back to the Champions League Final will be a big focus for this team this season and they have both the quality and the depth to do so. They have a very nice path in the league phase which could make them the top finisher after 8 matches, but the knockouts are where they could run into some trouble. There are few teams that can give Man City trouble and there is a very good chance that they could end up back in the Final this year, but there is a better option when betting on a team to win this competition. Real Madrid, the defending champions, are a team that has given Man City trouble in the past and if they run into them at any point, Man City could see themselves out of the competition. They have not had the same success in this competition throughout the years either, only winning the 1 Title just 2 seasons ago. There is some value in Man City to win at this price, but they are not the team with the most value in this competition.  Real Madrid +350: Real Madrid is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Real Madrid are the defending champions from last season, but they have the quality and the depth in their squad to repeat as champions. They have owned European competition over the last decade and have been very successful in Champions League specifically. The hunger is still going to be there for this team as well, now that they have brought in more talent to improve their already fantastic squad even more. The big signing for Real Madrid this summer was Kylian Mbappe so there is going to be hunger to win Champions League again as Mbappe will be looking to do what he failed to do at PSG for years and win the Champions League Title. Real Madrid still has one of the better squads in all of Europe and they even went out improving it this summer with more quality and depth. The motivation will be there and even when they have struggled in league play, they are always a different team when it comes to Champions League as this is the desired competition for them to win. Real Madrid has a lot of value at this price to repeat as champions and lift the trophy once again.  Arsenal +800: Arsenal is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Arsenal has a very good squad this season and they are off to a strong start in the Premier League. They have the quality and the depth in their squad to make a deep run in this tournament, but last season they struggled and they do not have the experience yet to be consistent like some of the other clubs who dominate. Arsenal has a very good defense that will carry them far, but their attack can struggle to break down opposing defenses at times and that will be a big issue the deeper they go as the defenses get better. Arsenal could very well make a deep run in this tournament, but getting to the Final will be a difficult task for them as they do not have the Champions League pedigree. There is some value in Arsenal at this price, but eventually they will run into a stronger team that takes them out, they are not a true contender to win this competition this season.  Bayern Munich +1200: Bayern Munich is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Bayern Munich made a deep run in Champions League last season, but they were stopped short in the Semi Final by Real Madrid who went on to win the tournament. Bayern once again has a very talented squad with lots of quality and depth, but they have a lot to focus on this season which could leave them in a bit of disarray. Champions League is going to be a big focus for them after getting stopped by the champions in the Semi Final last season, but their focus is also going to be on other competitions as well. Last year, they failed to win the Bundesliga Title as Leverkusen took that from them, and they were also knocked out in the 2nd round of the DFB Pokal, leaving Bayern trophyless for the first time in years. They are going to be focused on winning this competition, but they are also going to be focused on taking the league title back so that could affect them deep into the season as they are making their run. They have also had defensive problems for years with the number of goals they allow, and they have not done much to address those problems which makes them a very vulnerable team deep in the tournament as the competition gets tougher. There is no real value in Bayern Munich to lift the trophy this season.  Barcelona +1200: Barcelona is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Barcelona has been a bit of a disaster both on the pitch and off over the last few years. They are slowly turning things around though and they are off to a good start in La Liga this season. They are going to be focused on winning this competition as they always are, but they have not really been a true threat in Champions League over the last few years. They have a lot of quality in their starting XI but the bench lacks quality with their depth. They have also fumbled the ball in their own domestic league over the last few years so they are also going to be focused on winning the La Liga Title. They play in the same league as the defending champions Real Madrid so Barcelona will know how to handle them in this competition, but there are other teams that can give Barcelona a lot of trouble as well. They are slowly getting themselves back on track after years of disaster and this might be the year they take La Liga back, but they are going to need some more time to build this squad if they want to be a true threat in Champions League once again. There is no real value in Barcelona to win this competition this season.  Liverpool +1400: Liverpool is coming into this Champions League season as the team with the next best chance at lifting the trophy according to the oddsmakers. Liverpool is off to a good start in the Premier League this season and they have been one of the better teams in the league recently. They have a lot of quality and depth in their squad, but it has not changed much from last season. There have been some changes in the midfield and on defense, but the core of this team has pretty much stayed the same. The only new thing this season is their new manager who has replaced Jurgen Klopp. Liverpool has the quality to make a deep run in this competition, something they were not given a chance at last season. They were not in Champions League last season as they did not qualify, instead qualifying for Europa League. They failed to win Europa League as they were knocked out by the eventual champions Atalanta, but motivation to win a competition like Europa League is always in question for a bigger club like Liverpool that considers itself more Champions League quality. This year they are going to have the chance and after sitting out last season, motivation will be at an all-time high for them. They have struggled to compete with Man City for the Premier League Title the last few seasons, but this competition will always be a focus for them, especially with their new manager. Liverpool could very well make a deep run in this competition and go to the Final, but there are also better teams that they could run into which will give them trouble. The motivation factor along with the talent makes them a nice dark horse to win this competition as the possibility is there, but they are not the best option to lift the trophy this season.  RecommendationThere are other teams on the list who are very good teams with a lot of quality, but none of them have the quality of these top 6 contenders nor the experience to make a deep run to the Final. There are plenty of teams that have the potential to make deep runs this season, but only 1 team can lift the trophy and the defending champions still have the best shot at that with the improvements they have made. Real Madrid at +350 has the most value for a team to win this competition this season as they really do have the best chance and the strongest squad. Liverpool at +1400 has some value as a dark horse as well. 

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Champions League 2024/25 Season (League Phase Betting)

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

The Champions League qualifiers have concluded and with that comes the start of the Champions League season on Tuesday, September 17. Real Madrid are the defending champions of the competition, but this season they will be rolling out a new format for the early stages. There will no longer be a group stage but instead it will be replaced by a league phase where all teams play 8 random matches decided by the draw, 4 home and 4 away, and all teams will have to fight for points to finish in the top 24. The top 8 will automatically qualify while the top 9-24 will have to play in a play-off. With the start of the league phase just around the corner now, it is time to see what value can be found with qualifying teams in the League Phase. League Phase Winner Real Madrid +500: Real Madrid is +500 to finish the League Phase in 1st place with the most points. They are the defending champions of the competition, but they also improved their squad in the summer. They take this competition very seriously as they have dominated it over the last few years, and they also finished the group stage last season with a perfect 6-0-0 record. They have a favorable path in the League Phase with their 8 matches as well. Real Madrid could easily win all 4 of their matches against the pot 3 and pot 4 clubs that they were drawn against. There is also a very good chance that they pull away 6 points from the 2 home matches against the pot 1 and pot 2 teams. That would leave them with 18 points from 6 matches and there is a good chance they are going to get points from the 2 away matches against pot 1 and pot 2 clubs as well. Real Madrid could be sitting at the top of the league phase with 20+ points after 8 matches and they have a very good defense that will help improve their goal differential if they finish tied with any teams on points. For these reasons, there is a lot of value in Real Madrid at +500 to top the League Phase after the 8 matches have been played.  Top 8 Finish in League Phase Liverpool -138: Liverpool is -138 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase but they have a very good chance of making that happen. Liverpool did not qualify for Champions League last season as they were not a top 4 team in the Premier League the season prior, but they improved a lot last season and they are not going to take this opportunity for granted now that they are back in the competition. Focus will be very high for this squad, and they have the quality to be a top 8 finisher. The two strongest teams that they drew in the League Phase are Real Madrid and Leverkusen, but both of those matches are going to be at home which favors Liverpool as they could get some points from those. Their away matches against the pot 1 and pot 2 clubs will be tough as well, but RB Leipzig is a team they can get a point from and AC Milan is a team they could grab all 3 from, even being away from home. Then they have their matches against the pot 3 and pot 4 clubs which they could collect full points from. They have a lot more quality than teams like Girona and PSV, and their 2 stronger opponents in Bologna and Lille are both home matches. Liverpool could come out of this League Phase with around 18 points and that would be enough to get them into the top 8. There is value in Liverpool at -138 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase. Barcelona -134: Barcelona is -134 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase and they have both the quality in their squad as well as a softer path to make that happen. Their home match against Bayern Munich is going to be their toughest match on the schedule, but being at home gives them a better chance to get something from that match. They also get the Europa League champions Atalanta, but that match is also at home. Their 2 away matches against pot 1 and pot 2 clubs are against Dortmund and Benfica respectively, but those are both matches they could collect all 3 points in, or at least get something from it. Their pot 3/pot 4 draws consist of BSC Young Boys, Crvena Zvezda, Stade Brest, and Monaco. Monaco away from home will be the toughest of those 4 matches, but they could very well collect all 12 points from those matches with the quality they have. Barcelona may get tripped up in the knockout stages of this competition, but they still have a lot of quality in their starting XI and their draw in this League Phase makes them a good pick to finish in the top 8 with the softer path. There is value in Barcelona at -134 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase.  Bayer Leverkusen +130: Bayer Leverkusen is +130 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase and they are coming off of a very good season in which they were dominant. They won the Bundesliga Title as well as the DFB Pokal in their domestic league, and they also went to the Final of Europa League which they lost to Atalanta. They were a dominant team in Europa League all season though and after winning the Bundesliga Title last season, they will be turning their focus to Champions League this year. They did not improve their squad much in the summer, but they retained a lot of the quality they had last season and were considered one of the better teams in Europe all year under Xabi Alonso. They are going to be a threat in this competition and they do not have a tough path in the League Phase either. Their toughest match in the League Phase will be their away match against Liverpool. They have another tough match against Inter Milan, but that match is at home making it more likely that they still pick up points from it. Their home match against AC Milan is a match they can definitely win and their away match against Atletico Madrid could net them some points as well. Then they have away matches against Brest and Feyenoord as well as home matches against RB Salzburg and Sparta Prague, but all of those matches are winnable so there is a good chance they can take 12 points from those or at least 10. Between the quality of this squad from last season and the path they have in the League Phase, there is value in Leverkusen at +130 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase.  Atalanta +400: Atalanta is +400 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase but this is a team that has defied the odds over the last year. They had a great season in Serie A last year, finishing in 4th place, and they won the Europa League Title as well. They improved their squad by bringing in some more attacking talent when they already have a lot of quality in that area. They have also been a strong away team that has had no trouble picking up points and wins away from home, and that is going to be crucial in this League Phase qualifying. They have a bit of a gauntlet to go through with their pot 1/pot2 matches, but they still have a chance to pull some points from those. They face Arsenal and Real Madrid but both of those matches are at home which will soften the blow. They also have an away match against Barcelona which will be difficult, but their away match against Shakhtar Donetsk is definitely a winnable match. They are also going to excel against the weaker team as they face Celtic and Sturm Graz at home, both matches they should easily win, and they face BSC Young Boys as well as Stuttgart away from home, both of those being teams they can beat away from home as well. Atalanta has a very favorable path against the weaker teams and they are the Europa League champions from last season so the next step for them is to try and win Champions League this season. They may not make a deep run in the competition, but their ability to consistently pick up points away from home will be key in this tournament and they have a very good chance of finishing in the top 8 as one of the final teams. There is value in Atalanta at +400 to finish in the top 8 of the League Phase.  Top Team in League Phase Domestically Bundesliga - Bayern Munich +110: Bayern Munich is +110 to finish with the most points in the League Phase out of all the teams that play in the German Bundesliga. Bayern Munich is going to be a team that finishes in the top 8 as this is a competition they will be focused on, but Champions League is also a competition that they have made some deep runs in. They went to the Semi Final last season before getting knocked out by eventual champions Real Madrid, and they are going to be a force in this League Phase with the weaker path they have. Bayern is going to be focused on being the best team in Germany this year after going trophyless last season, and they have the quality to collect around 20 points from these 8 matches. Dortmund and RB Leipzig also have tougher paths so that is going to help Bayern finish ahead in points. Leverkusen could be the closest German team to challenge them, but that will only motivate them more seeing Leverkusen’s success. Bayern has the experience to go deep into this tournament and they will dominate the League Phase as they did go 5-1-0 in last season’s group stage. There is value in Bayern Munich at +110 to finish with the most points out of all the German clubs. La Liga - Real Madrid -120: Real Madrid is -120 to finish the League Phase as the team with the most points out of all the teams that play in the Spanish La Liga. Real Madrid are the defending champions of this competition from last season, but they have also dominated Champions League over the last few years. They were a perfect 6-0-0 in the group stage last season and they have a very good chance at being the team that finishes with the most points after the League Phase out of all the teams in the competition. They improved their squad this season with even more quality and they also have a lot of depth as well. They will be focused on repeating as the champions, but they also have a much weaker path which is going to help them rack up points in the League Phase. Their pot 1/po2 matches consist of Dortmund, Liverpool, AC Milan, and Atalanta, but none of those teams are a real daunting threat for Real Madrid. There is a very good chance that they finish with around 20 points after the League Phase is done, and they even have the possibility to go a perfect 8-0-0 between the strength of the path and the strength of their squad. There is a lot of value in Real Madrid at -120 to finish the League Phase as the team with the most points out of all the teams that play in La Liga. 

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2024 NFC North Overview and Betting Preview

by Matt Fargo

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

2024 NFC North Overview and Betting Preview Regular Season Win Totals and NFC North/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)Detroit Lions: 10.5 Over -135 Under +110 ~ NFC North Winner +130 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,200Green Bay Packers: 9.5 Over -135 Under +115 ~ NFC North Winner +230 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,800Chicago Bears: 8.5 Over -160 Under +130 ~ NFC North Winner +280 ~ Super Bowl Winner +3,500Minnesota Vikings: 6.5 Over -140 Under +120 ~ NFC North Winner +1,100 ~ Super Bowl Winner +8,000 Coaching ChangesNone Team Previews Detroit Lions: 14-6 ~ 4-2 NFC North ~ 14-6-0 ATS ~ 13-7-0 O/UWon the NFC North, Lost in the NFC Championship2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 11 Notable Additions: G Kevin Zeitler, DE Marcus Davenport, DT D.J. Reader, CB Carlton Davis, CB Amik Robertson Notable Losses: QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Josh Reynolds, G Jonah Jackson, DE Romeo Okwara, DE Julian Okwara, CB Cameron Sutton, S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson Notable Draft Selections: CB Terrion Arnold, CB Ennis Rakestraw, OT Giovanni Manu, S Sione Vaki It did not take head coach Dan Campbell very long to move this franchise in the right direction as he inherited a mess and went 3-13 in his first season but bounced right back with the Lions first winning record in four seasons by going 9-8 and then last season, they were on the verge of their first ever trip to the Super Bowl but a second half meltdown in the NFC Championship left them saying what could have been. There is no sulking as Detroit is still one of the favorites to win the NFC with one of the most dynamic offenses in the league and if the defense can take it a step forward, the Lions could be right there again. The division has improved as a whole as evidenced by the win totals and the NFC North odds but it will be Detroit's to lose. They extended the contracts of quarterback Jared Goff and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, the two leaders of the offense that finished No. 6 in Offensive EPA and also No. 6 in both Rushing and Passing EPA. The former is due to the breakout season from rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs and along with David Montgomery, the Lions have one of the best back duos in the league that runs behind one of the better offensive lines. The defense allowed 45 fewer ypg than 2022 but allowed nearly the same amount of points as they had some good games but offset those with some poor efforts, allowing 28 or more points seven times. The Lions could not stop the pass but upgraded with two solid draft picks along with signing cornerback Carlton Davis. Detroit was a public betting darling last year as following that 9-8 season in 2022, the Lions went from +12,500 that year to win the Super Bowl to +2,200 last year and now the Lions come in at +1,200 and will be heavily bet again following their first division title in 30 yards and that NFC Championship run. They do have the roster to make it happen but the value is shot. The Lions won the division by three games last season and it likely will be a lot closer this year but the odds are relatively the same, going from +135 to +130 so this could be the way to go. The schedule is not easy playing the NFC West and AFC South while the three crossover games are all against playoff teams from last season. Their 10.5 win total is the highest in franchise history. Green Bay Packers: 10-9 ~ 4-2 NFC North ~ 11-8-0 ATS ~ 11-8-0 O/UFinished 2nd in the NFC North, Lost in the NFC Divisional Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 4 Notable Additions: RB Josh Jacobs, OT Andre Dillard, S Xavier McKinney, S Greg Joseph Notable Losses: RB Aaron Jones, TE Joiah Deguara, OT David Bakhtiari, OT Yosh Nijman, G Jon Runyan, LB D’Vondre Campbell, S Darnell Savage, S Jonathan Owens Notable Draft Selections: OT Jordan Morgan, LB Edgerrin Cooper, CB/S Javon Bullard, RB Marshawn Lloyd, LB Ty’Ron Hopper, S Evan Williams The Aaron Rodgers era in Green Bay ended with a non-playoff season in 2022 and while it took new starting quarterback Jordan Love to find his footing last season, he ran with it once he did. The Packers opened 2-5 but closed on a 7-3 run to make the playoffs and then ran away from Dallas early in the Wild Card Round before losing a tough three-point game at San Francisco in the Divisional Round. Love started slow as any first year starting quarterback usually does as he posted QB ratings of 88.0 and 65.4 in September and October but put up ratings of 103.1, 107.4 and 128.6 in November, December and January. He looked extremely comfortable down the stretch so maybe it is more about ability and talent and not so much teams not knowing what to expect. Can he keep it going with good but not great wide receivers? The three top receivers, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs are all talented but none are a true No. 1 but what they lack in fantasy value, they make up for in consistency and Love having the ability to mix and match to keep opposing defenses honest. The Packers lost running back Aaron Jones to the Vikings but got Josh Jacobs as a replacement and he arguably has more upside. The defense finished No. 24 in EPA and while they allowed fewer than 20 points seven times, they gave up 30 or more five times and the offense could not bail them out in three of those. This is a quality young team but they do not have that it factor that other teams possess. The late run at the end of the regular season along with the blowout of Dallas and the near miss against San Francisco has people believing in the Packers. With the offense that was so young with first and second year starters, opponents simply did not have much on how to defend but with a year of film, teams should be more prepared. But to their own merit, they are a year older with more experience. Six of their 10 wins were against non-playoff teams and the schedule takes a big jump up in strength so it will not be easy. Their three crossover games are against Philadelphia, Miami and New Orleans with none being true road games which helps. The win total seems too high because everyone will only remember the late season surge. Chicago Bears: 7-10 ~ 2-4 NFC North ~ 8-7-2 ATS ~ 9-8-0 O/UFinished Tied for 3rd in the NFC North, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 29 Notable Additions: RB D'Andre Swift, WR Keenan Allen, TE Gerald Everett, OT Jake Curhan, G Matt Pryor, C Ryan Bates, C Coleman Shelton, DE Jacob Martin, S Kevin Byard, S Jonathan Owens Notable Losses: QB Justin Fields, RB D’Onta Foreman, WR Darnell Mooney, TE Marcedes Lewis, G Cody Whitehair, C Lucas Patrick, DE Yannick Ngakoue, DT Justin Jones, S Eddie Jackson Notable Draft Selections: QB Caleb Williams, WR Rome Odunze, OT Kiran Amegabjige, P Tory Taylor, DE Austin Booker The Bears had their best season with quarterback Justin Fields in his three years but possessing the No. 1 overall draft pick, they decided to move in a different direction. It has been a lousy run for Chicago as it has been to the playoffs only twice since 2011 while finishing with a winning record only twice over that span as well. The Bears drafted Caleb Williams as their hopeful franchise quarterback and the public seems to be all in with many other upgrades throughout the roster as well. Williams gives them a young talent who navigates the pocket and makes throws like a veteran and unlike most quarterbacks in Bears history, he will have a great group of receivers to throw to. Considering Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson at the age of 24 already has more receiving yards than any player in Bears history, the optimism is real with D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze possibly becoming one of the best trios in the league. Chicago has depth at running back after signing D'Andre Swift and this could turn into a potent offense as long as the offensive line can stay healthy which was a problem last season. The Bears had a solid improvement on defense from 2022 and finished No. 13 in EPA thanks to a great second half of the season. Over their final eight games, they allowed 31 points against the Lions in one of those but in the other seven games, they gave up just 15.1 ppg. They will not be that good in 2024 but there is hope that a healthy bunch can do just enough to stay around. While the public loves the Lions once again, they really love the Bears which forced oddsmakers to overadjust some of these odds. While the Bears may be better, the division as a whole is stronger and the Chicago numbers have come down in Super Bowl, NFC and NFC North odds while the win total has gone up. At +280 to win the division, this is the second lowest number since 2010 with the lowest being 2019 when they were +175 and finished third. This is a hard pass. The Bears are 1-9-1 to the under the last 11 seasons and now they are hit with their fourth highest win total over this stretch. They get the Rams, Commanders and Patriots in the crossover games but finding 9 wins seems aggressive. -114 to miss the playoffs could be the bet. Minnesota Vikings: 7-10 ~ 2-4 NFC North ~ 7-7-3 ATS ~ 7-10-0 O/UFinished Tied for 3rd in the NFC North, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 18 Notable Additions: QB Sam Darnold, RB Aaron Jones, WR Trent Sherfield, C Dan Feeney, DT Jerry Tillery, DE/OLB Jonathan Greenard, DE/OLB Andrew Van Ginkel, LB Blake Cashman, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill, CB Shaq Griffin Notable Losses: QB Kirk Cousins, QB Josh Dobbs, RB Alexander Mattison, WR K.J. Osborn, OT David Quessenberry, G Dalton Risner, DE Danielle Hunter, DE D.J. Wonnum, DE Marcus Davenport, DT Dean Lowry, LB Jordan Hicks, LB Troy Dye, K Greg Joseph Notable Draft Selections: QB J.J. McCarthy, DE Dallas Turner, CB Khyree Jackson The Vikings had high hopes last season coming off a 13-win season but that was a façade as they were the luckiest team in the NFL as they went 11-1 in one possession games during the regular season. Flash forward to last season, they opened 0-3, all one possession losses no less, and while they rallied to get to 4-4, quarterback Kirk Cousins was lost for the season with an Achillies injury and they could not produce in the second half on the season, finishing on a 1-6 run, the lone win being a 3-0 snoozefest over Las Vegas. Now that Cousins is gone, Minnesota had to decide between Sam Darnold, who is playing for his fourth team in five years, or rookie J.J. McCarthy but it was unfortunately decided when McCarthy was lost for the season with a knee injury. Darnold does have one of the best wide receivers in football in Justin Jefferson, a solid second option in Jordan Addison and a great tight end in T.J. Hockenson when he gets back to full health. The Vikings upgraded their running back by signing Aaron Jones away from Green Bay and they have a very solid offensive line. But is Darnold really the answer? The defense was horrible from 2020-2022 but they showed improvements last season, going from second worst in total defense to No. 16. Minnesota only had two players register more than three sacks and both are gone so the turnstile the defense has gone through from last season needs to find some players to step up in a highly offensive division. Drafting Dallas Turner was a start. The 6.5 wins for the Vikings are the lowest since 2014 when the number was 6 and they actually have not been below 8.5 since 2015 so the oddsmakers are expecting a pretty big drop-off. This is because of Darnold who entered the league as a can't miss but he has been just that with his 21-35 record as a starter, his 59.7 completion percentage and his 78.3 QB rating. He has been on some bad teams, but there is not much around him here and he cannot carry a team on his shoulders into the postseason so every future bet is off the board especially when they are -355 to miss the playoffs. The Giants, Jets and Falcons are the crossovers so that is one win and trying to locate six others is a stretch. The under at plus money is a look.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB, CFL, EPL and NCAAF Previews and Odds - 08/31/2024

by Big Al Staff

Saturday, Aug 31, 2024

The Saturday sports card features NCAAF, MLB, CFL, and EPL action.Week 1 in NCAAF college football continues with 29 games between FBS opponents. Five NCAAF games kick off at noon ET, with three games on major national television. Georgia hosts Clemson on ABC as a 12-point favorite with the total set at 48.5 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). Virginia Tech visits Vanderbilt on ESPN as a 13.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 48.5. Penn State plays at West Virginia on Fox as a 7.5-point road favorite with a total of 50.5. Twelve NCAAF games kick off in the 3:30 p.m. ET to 5:00 p.m. ET windows. Three games on major national television start at 3:30 p.m. ET. Texas plays at home against Colorado State on ESPN as a 34.5-point favorite with an over/under of 60. Nebraska is at home against UTEP as a 27.5-point favorite with a total of 49. Ohio State hosts Akron on CBS as a 48.5-point favorite with a total of 57. Miami (FL) is at Florida on ABC as a 2.5-point road favorite with an over/under of 54.5. Twelve NCAAF games start at 7:00 p.m. ET or later, with five games on national television. Alabama plays at home against Western Kentucky on ESPN at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 32-point favorite with a total of 59.5. Michigan is home against Fresno State on NBC at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 21-point favorite with an over/under of 45.5. Texas A&M hosts Notre Dame on ABC at 7:30 p.m. ET as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 47. Arizona plays at home against New Mexico on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET as a 30-point favorite with a total of 58.5. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The afternoon MLB card has three games beginning with the New York Yankees throwing out the first pitch at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 1:05 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The remaining 12 games start at 6:10 p.m. ET or later. Two MLB games are featured on Fox’s regional coverage at 7:15 p.m. ET. The Milwaukee Brewers are in Cincinnati to play the Reds. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves as a -148 money-line favorite with a total of 7.5.Week 13 in the Canadian Football League begins with one game. The British Columbia Lions play at home against the Ottawa Redblacks at 7:00 p.m. ET as a 2.5-point favorite with an over/under of 49.5. Matchweek 2 in the English Premier League season begins with seven matches. Arsenal is at home against Brighton and Hove Albion on the USA Network at 7:30 p.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line favorite with a total of 3 (all soccer odds at BetMGM). Five EPL matches begin at 10:00 a.m. ET. Bournemouth visits Everton on the USA Network in a pick ‘em match with an over/under of 2.5. Manchester City plays at West Ham United on NBC at 12:30 p.m. ET as a -1.5 goal-line road favorite with a total of 3.5. 

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2024 NFC East Overview and Betting Preview

by Matt Fargo

Friday, Aug 30, 2024

2024 NFC East Overview and Betting PreviewRegular Season Win Totals and NFC East/Super Bowl Odds (via DraftKings)Philadelphia Eagles: 10.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner -125 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,400Dallas Cowboys: 9.5 Over -145 Under +120 ~ NFC East Winner +170 ~ Super Bowl Winner +1,900Washington Commanders: 6.5 Over -130 Under +110 ~ NFC East Winner +900 ~ Super Bowl Winner +12,000New York Giants: 6.5 Over +115 Under -135 ~ NFC East Winner +2,000 ~ Super Bowl Winner +15,000Coaching ChangesWashington Commanders: Ron Rivera Out ~ Dan Quinn InTeam PreviewsPhiladelphia Eagles: 11-7 ~ 4-2 NFC East ~ 7-9-2 ATS ~ 9-9-0 O/UFinished 2nd in the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 21Notable Additions: QB Kenny Pickett, RB Saquon Barkley, WR DeVante Parker, WR Parris Campbell, G Matt Hennessy, NT P.J. Mustipher, OLB Bryce Huff, LB Devin White, LB Oren Burks, LB Zack Baun, CB/S Chauncey Gardner-JohnsonNotable Losses: QB Marcus Mariota, RB D’Andre Swift, RB Rashaad Penny, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, G Sua Opeta, C Jason Kelce, DE Haason Reddick, DT Fletcher Cox, LB Nicholas Morrow, LB Zach Cunningham, LB Shaq Leonard, S Kevin Byard, S Justin EvansNotable Draft Selections: CB Quinyon Mitchell, CB/S Cooper DeJean, DE Jalyx Hunt, RB Will Shipley, WR Ainias Smith, LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr.Philadelphia had two five-game winning streaks to start last season wrapped around a loss to the Jets on the road to open 10-1 and it was looking well on its way to another Super Bowl run. Then all of a sudden, the Eagles forgot how to score as they put up fewer than 20 points in five of their final seven games including a season-low nine points in their Wild Card Round loss to the Buccaneers. What was hidden in that offensive run was that the defense was even worse as Philadelphia allowed 31 ppg over their final eight games. It was a stunning implosion and one that many thought would cost head coach Nick Sirianni his job yet he escaped but he is on the hot seat despite nearly winning the Super Bowl just two years ago. A lot of it is rumored that there is a rift between him and quarterback Jalen Hurts but it is something they have to work around to make this work. The Eagles did a pretty big overhaul on both sides of the ball as on offense, they signed running back Saquon Barkley to give them the dynamic player they could not find and recently traded for wide receiver Jahan Dotson so they should be back in line with their 2022 numbers. The defense regressed by 70 ypg and 7 ppg from 2022 and Philadelphia brought in a number of new faces across all levels to shore this unit up. The Eagles let seven significant contributors go and brought in more younger talent and nailed two draft picks to bolster their secondary. The biggest move could be hiring Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator.The Eagles come in as the favorite to win the NFC East and the number is similar to that of last season but their NFC and Super Bowl odds have nearly doubled as they came into 2023 at +800 and dropped all the way to +450 prior to their implosion. The win total is one fewer than last season, which they missed the over by a half-game, and the drop in win total correlates with the increase in odds and based on the schedule and all of the upgrades, there is some value in betting Philadelphia across the board but that is not likely where our money is going as there are teams below them with higher odds that could have an easier path. Crossover games against Green Bay and Baltimore away from home could determine their over/under result.Dallas Cowboys: 12-6 ~ 5-1 NFC East ~ 10-7-1 ATS ~ 10-7-1 O/UWon the NFC East, Lost in the NFC Wild Card Round2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 12Notable Additions: RB Ezekiel Elliott, LB Eric KendricksNotable Losses: RB Tony Pollard, WR Michael Gallup, OT Tyron Smith, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Dante Fowler, DT Johnathan Hankins, LB Leighton Vander Esch, CB Stephon Gilmore, S Jayron KearseNotable Draft Selections: OT Tyler Guyton, DE Marshawn Kneeland, G Cooper Beebe, LB Marist LiufauDallas has won the NFC East five of the last 10 seasons but was unable to get past the Divisional Round three times while losing in the Wild Card Round twice and throw in another Divisional Round loss in 2022 as a Wild Card team, it has been a decade of disappointment. Dallas won its last Super Bowl in 1995 and in 13 playoff appearances since then, the Cowboys have not even made it to the NFC Championship so why they get so much attention and public backing is mind-boggling. Here they are again with high expectations in a conference that is wide open with arguably six teams that can win the NFC with Dallas in that mix. Since 2015, they have been no higher than +1,500 to win the NFC and no other team can stake that claim over the last nine years yet there have been six different teams representing the NFC in the Super Bowl. Enough about the Dallas futility as it again has talent to make a run that many fans have not been able to witness. Quarterback Dak Prescott is usually the scapegoat and will likely be again but other than CeeDee Lamb, the offense is not very good. There is no reliable No. 2 receiver, the running game is going to be bad and the offensive line lost two significant starters. Running back Tony Pollard is off to Tennessee so they resigned Ezekiel Elliott to go along with Rico Dowdle. The defense was No. 23 in EPA and they did not do much to upgrade as the pass rush will still be solid but the back end needs help, especially with DaRon Bland out a while.Money will be pouring in on the Cowboys as is the case every year and that will not be including a single cent from this end, at least to start. There will be that one season where Dallas eventually wins the Super Bowl and we will miss it but continuing to chase a so-called contender every season has cost a lot of people a lot of money. Detroit, San Francisco and Houston are the three crossover games besides playing the NFC South and AFC North so this schedule is not easy and there is value on the under at plus money. The bet could be for Dallas to make the playoffs which DraftKings has at -210 but it is a wait and see as the first seven games present a challenge and we could see the number drop should they have some early struggles.Washington Commanders: 4-13 ~ 0-6 NFC East ~ 6-10-1 ATS ~ 10-7-0 O/UFinished 4th in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 19Notable Additions: QB Marcus Mariota, RB Austin Ekeler, WR Olamide Zaccheaus, TE Zach Ertz, G Nick Allegretti, C Tyler Biadasz, DE Dorance Armstrong, DE Clelin Ferrell, DE Dante Fowler, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Frankie Luvu, CB Michael Davis, S Jeremy Chinn, K Brandon McManusNotable Losses: QB Jayden Daniels, DT Johnny Newton, CB Mike Sainristill, TE Ben Sinnott, OT Brandon Coleman, WR Luke McCaffrey, LB Jordan MageeNotable Draft Selections: QB Jacoby Brissett, QB Sam Howell, RB Antonio Gibson, WR Curtis Samuel, TE Logan Thomas, OT Charles Leno, G Saahdiq Charles, C Nick Gates, DE Casey Toohill, DE James Smith-Williams, LB Cody Baron, CB Kendall Fuller, S Kamren Curl, K Joey SlyeWashington has won the NFC East only three times since the turn of the century, two of those with nine or fewer wins including one with a losing record. They have not had a double-digit winning season since 2012 while having just three 10-win seasons since 1992 after having done so in eight of their previous nine seasons from 1983-1991. This is the epitome of below average and the Commanders are once again going through a rebuild but this one seems a little different. Last season, Washington opened last season 2-0 and while no one was expecting any sort of positive run, it went south quickly as the Commanders lost 13 of their last 15 games with the two wins coming against Atlanta and New England. The offense needs a spark as the Commanders have averaged between 313 and 330 ypg and 19 and 21 ppg over the last four seasons and they are hoping Jayden Daniels provides it. He is being compared to Robert Griffin III but with a higher ceiling and to help alleviate the transition to an NFL starter, the Commanders signed Austin Ekeler who is great when healthy and teamed with Brian Robinson, this is a very solid backfield. Wide receiver Jahan Dotson was shipped off to rival Philadelphia but Terry McLaurin is still a solid No. 1 and Washington did a good job of strengthening its offensive line. The Commanders regressed considerably on defense and finished dead last in EPA while allowing 10 more ppg and 85 more ypg than it did in 2022. They did upgrade but far from enough.Could Washington be the Houston of last season, bringing in the No. 2 draft pick to take them to the playoffs? This is unlikely in this division but the Commanders will be better after getting outgained in 13 of 17 games last season. Despite only four wins last season, the win total of 6.5 is the same as last year which came after an eight-win season in 2022 so the oddsmakers are expecting improvements. The schedule definitely helps as Washington has nine home games, it has four winnable road games and its three crossover games are against Arizona, Chicago and Tennessee. All in, there are 11 swing games including seven of the first nine so a 5-4 start a possible and there are two more wins the rest of the way so the over is the play.New York Giants: 6-11 ~ 3-3 NFC East ~ 8-8-1 ATS ~ 6-11-0 O/UFinished 3rd in the NFC East, Missed Playoffs2024 Strength of Schedule Ranking: No. 6Notable Additions: QB Drew Lock, RB Devin Singletary, WR Isaiah McKenzie, OT Jermaine Eluemunor, G Jon Runyan, G Aaron Stinnie, DE Brian Burns, S Jalen MillsNotable Losses: QB Tyrod Taylor, RB Saquon Barkley, WR Parris Campbell, TE Darren Waller, DT A’Shawn Robinson, OLB Isaiah Simmons, S Xavier McKinneyNotable Draft Selections: WR Malik Nabers, S Tyler Nubin, CB Andru Phillips, TE Theo JohnsonNo team has won the NFC East in consecutive years since 2004, the longest streak in NFL history but the Giants have not been part of the musical chairs since their last division title in 2011. New York made a surprising playoff run in 2022, if you can call a run one playoff victory, and it hoped to build off of that heading into last season but there was some early foreshadowing after a 40-0 season opening loss at home against Dallas. Their first four losses were by more than two touchdowns and while they got some late season success from backup quarterback Tommy DeVito, it was a disaster of a season for the Giants. Many are calling this the year it has to happen for quarterback Daniel Jones and head coach Brian Daboll but this is just hard to foresee. New York drafted a franchise wide receiver in Malik Nabers and with Jalin Hyatt and Wan'Dale Robinson, this trio could be something special, if they can get the ball. Jones has shown some positive things but he looks too uncomfortable a majority of the time and he is coming off that torn ACL while his preseason work has been hard to watch at times. The loss of Saquon Barkley is going to hurt and they did hardly anything to improve one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. The defense has regressed each of the last five seasons and not much was invested in improving. They do have a formidable defensive line as they got Brian Burns from Carolina to line up with Kayvon Thibodeaux and Dexter Lawrence but there are holes elsewhere.While we like the Washington over at 6.5, we love the Giants under at the same number even with a little added juice to it. New York was on pace to have one of the worst records in the NFL last season but closing 4-3 over the last seven games in a stretch that meant nothing inflated their overall record to 6-11 and that hurts going into this season. New York has to face the No. 6 schedule that is loaded early on and this season could be over quickly. The Giants get Indianapolis, Minnesota and Seattle in their three crossover games and none of those are easy despite the first two being at home. They have gone 2-9 to the under over the last 11 seasons, finishing with six or fewer wins in eight of those and we do not see that changing again this year.

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Tom's NCAAF Big 10 Bankroll Builder

by Tom Stryker

Friday, Aug 30, 2024

Without question, one of the toughest football games to handicap is a team’s first of the season.  You can read all you want about the talent surrounding the program and get a feel for how the troops will play from watching practices and listening to the coaches’ comments.  However, until you witness the finished product on the field, the jury is still out. This week, with the help of the Team Stryker Database, I decided to take a look at how well certain conferences performed overall in season lid-lifters.  To my surprise, there were a number of profitable technical situations that were worth noting.  One of the best I stumbled across can be found below.  Take a look:   Since 1998, PLAY ON any Big 10 non revenging home favorite priced between -7 and -21 battling a non-conference opponent provided both teams are competing in their first game of the season.  26-Year ATS Record = 43-16 ATS for 72.8 percent  This Week’s Plays = MICHIGAN STATE (Friday) and MARYLAND (Saturday) The Big 10 has historically been one of the best conferences in college football and fast starts have been a top priority for all of the teams.  This specific technical situation backs a Big 10 home squad at a competitive price that is prepared to dominate a non-conference foe.  With the addition of Oregon, UCLA, USC, and the University of Washington, the Big 10 will be better than ever and winning non-conference games will hold a higher level of importance. Good luck with the Spartans on Friday and the Terrapins on Saturday.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF and MLB Previews and Odds - 08/30/2024

by Big Al Staff

Friday, Aug 30, 2024

The Friday sports card features NCAAF and MLB action.Week 1 in NCAAF college football continues with four games between FBS opponents. Two NCAAF games kick off at 7:00 p.m. ET. Oklahoma hosts Temple on ESPN as a 42-point favorite, with the total set at 57.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Michigan State plays at home against Florida Atlantic as a 13.5-point favorite with an over/under of 45. Wisconsin is at home against Western Michigan on FS1 at 9:00 p.m. ET as a 24-point favorite with a total of 56. TCU travels to Stanford on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET as a 9-point road favorite with an over/under of 60.5. Major League Baseball has 16 games on its schedule. The Milwaukee Brewers play in Cincinnati against the Reds in the opening game of their doubleheader at 12:40 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 10. Three MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Brewers battle the Reds in the second game of their doubleheader as a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 10. The Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves as a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The Boston Red Sox are in Detroit to play the Tigers as a -135 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Chicago Cubs visit Washington to play the Commanders at 6:45 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The Tampa Bay Rays play at home against the San Diego Padres on Apple TV+ as a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The New York Yankees are at home against the St. Louis Cardinals at 7:05 p.m. ET as a -170 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Cleveland Guardians host the Pittsburgh Pirates at 7:10 p.m. ET as a -175 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Texas Rangers play at home against the Oakland A’s at 8:05 p.m. ET as a -155 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. Three more MLB games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Minnesota Twins are home against the Toronto Blue Jays as a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Houston Astros host the Kansas City Royals as a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The New York Mets play in Chicago against the White Sox as a -230 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 9. The Baltimore Orioles are in Colorado to play the Rockies at 8:40 p.m. ET as a -162 money-line road favorite with a total of 11. The Seattle Mariners travel to Los Angeles to play the Angels on Apple TV+ at 9:38 p.m. ET as a -198 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers play in Arizona against the Diamondbacks at 9:40 p.m. ET as a -130 money-line road favorite with a total of 8.5. The San Francisco Giants play at home against the Miami Marlins at 10:15 p.m. ET as a -270 money-line favorite with an over/under of 7.

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The Cowboys Are Primed In 2024 (Right?!)

by AAA Sports

Thursday, Aug 29, 2024

These two records stand in stark contrast and pretty much tell the story of the Super Bowl-starved Dallas Cowboys:36-15 – Dallas’s record in the regular season over the last three seasons.1-3 – Dallas’s playoff record over the last three seasons.Put differently, of all the teams that have won Super Bowls, only three – the New York Jets, Minnesota Vikings, and Miami Dolphins – have gone longer without winning than the Cowboys have since their last title in 1995. The pressure is on this season. Then again, when is the pressure NOT on in Dallas?Oddsmakers figure that the Cowboys have more than a puncher’s chance at ending their three-decades-long drought and winning their sixth SB. They’re at around +1800 in most books, behind nine other teams. No one has to tell Dallas fans, or owner/GM/showrunner Jerry Jones that it’s been a long drink of water since coach Barry Switzer got the job done in the mid-1990s.Since Switzer, six head coaches have tried to get the Cowboys over a very large hump. Only Dave Campo, in the early 2000s, had a losing season record, but exactly zero have winning playoffs records. Chan Gailey, Bill Parcells, Wade Phillips. Jason Garrett and current on-field boss Mike McCarthy have a combined playoff mark of 4-12. Of those four wins, two belong to Garrett – who needed a full decade to get them.All of which brings up the sensitive topic of whether Jones, at 81 years old, is still the right person to handle things off the field, or is Jones the Owner doing the Cowboys a disservice by continuing to employ Jones the General Manager? Would the Cowboys’ chances of getting back to the Super Bowl be better if Owner Jones took a back seat?Jones the Owner addressed that issue a few days ago and left no doubt where he stood. The F-words said it all: “I have an ordinate amount of confidence that [expletive], if anybody can figure out how to get this [expletive] done, I can figure out how to get it done,” Jones was quoted as saying. “Hell no, there’s nobody that could [expletive] come in here and do all the contracts … and be a GM any better than I can.”Ok then.Like with all 32 teams in the league, whether the Cowboys can climb their way back to the Super Bowl depends on the play of quarterback Dak Prescott, and the news there isn’t good. Jones has tossed cold water on the possibility that Prescott will be signed long-term, and Prescott doesn’t seem bothered by that at all. The franchise QB and Jones the Owner both appear willing to let 2024 play out. If the Boys get to the Super Bowl, Prescott can cash in big-time either in Dallas or elsewhere as a free agent. If Dallas falls short again, Jones the Frustrated GM might be unwilling to go through another contract battle with Prescott and could be ready to cut bait.Dallas does have one ace in the hole as it attempts to at least get back to the playoffs – namely, the NFC East is terrible. The Eagles are solid, but Philadelphia is the only problem for Dallas in the division. The schedule early on is not very taxing, and the Cowboys should at least be in the mix when they meet the Eagles for the first time, at home on Nov. 10. They square off again on Dec. 29 in Philly in what could be the game of the year. Philly is -140 to win the NFC East; the Cowboys are +170.Having Dallas back in the Super Bowl would be electric. And the Cowboys actually winning it might motivate Jones the Owner to bask in glory again and finally find a replacement for Jones the General Manager.Then again, who are we kidding?

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Big Al's Daily Angle: NCAAF and MLB Previews and Odds - 08/29/2024

by Big Al Staff

Thursday, Aug 29, 2024

The Thursday sports card features NCAAF and MLB action.The first full week in NCAAF college football kicks off with two games between FBS opponents at 8:00 p.m. ET. North Carolina travels to Minnesota on Fox as a 2-point road favorite with the total set at 50.5 (all odds from DraftKings). Jacksonville State hosts Coastal Carolina on the CBS Sports Network as a 3-point favorite with an over/under of 54.5.Major League Baseball has 11 games on its schedule. The Detroit Tigers play at home against the Los Angeles Angels at 1:10 p.m. ET. Keider Montero takes the ball for the Tigers to face Jack Kochanowicz for the Angels. Detroit is a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 9. Two more MLB games throw out the first pitch at 2:10 p.m. ET. Texas plays in Chicago with the Rangers sending out Nathan Eovaldi to pitch against Ky Bush for the White Sox. The Rangers are a -238 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Milwaukee is at home against San Francisco with Aaron Civale taking the hill for the Brewers to go against Hayden Birdsong for the  Giants. The Brewers are a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 8. The San Diego Padres are in St. Louis to play the Cardinals at 2:15 p.m. ET. The Padres tap Michael King to challenge the Cardinals’ Sonny Gray. San Diego is a -112 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 7.5. The Colorado Rockies host the Miami Marlins at 3:10 p.m. ET. Bradley Blalock gets the ball for the Rockies to battle against Valente Bellozo for the Marlins. Colorado is a -125 money-line favorite with a total of 11.5. The Arizona Diamondbacks play at home against the New York Mets at 3:40 p.m. ET. The Diamondbacks turn to Ryne Nelson to duel against the Mets’ David Peterson. Arizona is a -118 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9. The Cincinnati Reds are at home against the Oakland A’s at 5:10 p.m. ET. Julian Aguiar takes the mound for the Reds to pitch against J.T. Gunn for the A’s. Cincinnati is a -135 money-line favorite with a total of 10.The Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves at 6:40 p.m. ET. The Phillies tap Cristopher Sanchez to face the Braves’ Charlie Morton. Philadelphia is a -150 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5. The Boston Red Sox play at home against the Toronto Blue Jays at 7:10 p.m. ET. Kutter Crawford gets the start for the Red Sox to go against Bowden Francis for the Blue Jays. Boston is a -142 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Houston Astros are at home against the Kansas City Royals at 8:10 p.m. ET. The Astros send out Hunter Brown to challenge the Royals’ Brady Singer. Houston is a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Baltimore Orioles at 10:10 p.m. ET. Bobby Miller gets the ball for the Dodgers to battle against Cade Povich for the Orioles. Los Angeles is a -162 money-line favorite with a total of 9.5.  

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Five Observations Heading Into the College Football Season

by Vegas Writer

Wednesday, Aug 28, 2024

As the College Football season officially kicks off Thursday with two games on the main card and a slew of games on the extra board, there are storylines dominating the sport, including some that may or may not be recognized. But certain teams with certain backstories may help you when handicapping games.Before we get to five of the top observations to look at, just a reminder that last season I finished No. 1 in College Football with both NET PROFIT and WIN PERCENTAGE.  In addition, I am 115-86-7 all-time in College Football for $21,060, and cashed Michigan and Under in the 2024 Championship game. I started the 2024 campaign with a 3-0 sweep on Saturday, Aug. 24, with Georgia Tech, New Mexico and Nevada all cashing in.Do yourself a favor and grab a subscription package so you don't miss out on a thing this season. Now, here are five things I've observed and want you to consider:RED RIVER MOVEMENT -- Texas and Oklahoma make their move to the SEC, which means a new conference benefits from the Red River Rivalry. Amazingly, if you think about it, there are now four former Big 12 teams in the SEC, which means we have the renewal of conference rivalries, as the Longhorns and Sooners reunite with Texas A&M and Missouri. Plus, an existing rivalry between Arkansas and Texas becomes much more meaningful. The Longhorns are probably the more intriguing of the two newcomers, as they were in the playoff last season and are poised to return with the field expanding to 12. Oklahoma could have issues without its starting offensive line from last season, not to mention with a defense that struggled to keep points off the board.WESTWARD BIG TEN -- Conference realignment also hits the Big 10, as USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington arrive from the Pac 12, which means four more teams can contend for a spot in the 12-team playoff bracket. Of the four, don't sleep on Oregon, whose high-powered offense should pick up where it left off last season, with Oklahoma transfer Dillon Gabriel stepping in for Bo Nix under center. Washington had its time, and won't be able to repeat its championship-game performance from last season, especially with Michael Penix Jr. in the NFL. USC and UCLA will also be rebuilding, and could find their first year in the Big 10 a bit rough.COACH PRIME -- Forget about asking whether or not Deion Sanders will lead the Colorado Buffaloes to a winning season, the bigger question should be whether or not he lasts the entire season. A rough start could doom this program with the NFL likely calling Sanders' name in the next couple of years, and his truculent ways with the media. There's a reason this team's win total was installed at 5.5. Outside of North Dakota State and Colorado State, the rest of the season could be a crapshoot for Coach Prime's troops.REBELS WITH A CAUSE -- Yes, for the second straight season, UNLV is included in this season-opening observation column. The Rebels lost in the Mountain West championship last season, and also a bowl game, but considering the culture has changed dramatically under second-year coach Barry Odom, they may not be done. The Rebels have transformed into an SEC-like team, as Odom brought his roots to Rebel Park. UNLV opens at Houston, and many believe a statement road win over the Cougars could propel the Rebels into another level of confidence.DIRTY DOZEN -- So who makes it in the first year we have a 12-team playoff bracket? There really is no-telling, so let's give it a shot in seeding order: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Utah, 4. Oregon, 5. Ole Miss, 6. Texas, 7. Notre Dame, 8. Michigan, 9. Alabama, 10. Penn State, 11. Florida State, 12. Liberty.

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Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Previews and Odds - 08/28/2024

by Big Al Staff

Wednesday, Aug 28, 2024

The Wednesday sports card features MLB action. Major League Baseball has 15 games on its schedule. The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Chicago Cubs at 12:35 p.m. ET. The Pirates tap Paul Skenes to pitch against the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks. Pittsburgh is a -170 money-line favorite with the total set at 8 (all odds from DraftKings unless indicated otherwise). The Cleveland Guardians play at home against the Kansas City Royals at 1:10 p.m. ET. Tanner Bibee gets the ball for the Guardians to face Michael Wacha for the Royals. Cleveland is a -142 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8. The Philadelphia Phillies are at home against the Houston Astros at 4:05 p.m. ET. The Phillies send out Taijuan Walker to go against the Astros’ Spencer Arrighetti. Philadelphia is a -112 money-line favorite with a total of 9. The Seattle Mariners host the Tampa Bay Rays at 4:10 p.m. ET. Luis  Castillo gets the ball for the Mariners to challenge a starting pitcher yet to be named for the Rays. Two MLB games throw out the first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. Oakland travels to Cincinnati with the A’s turning to Osvaldo Bido to battle against the Reds’ Fernando Cruz who is their opener in a bullpen game. Both teams are priced at -110  with an over/under of 10. Detroit plays at home against Los Angeles with Mason Englert opening for the Tigers to duel against Griffin Canning for the Angels. The New York Yankees play in Washington against the Nationals at 6:45 p.m. ET. The Yankees send out Carlos Rodon to duel against the Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore. New York is a -198 money-line road favorite with a total of 9. The Boston Red Sox are at home against the Toronto Blue Jays at 7:10 p.m. ET. Brayan Bello gets the ball for the Red Sox to face Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays. Boston is a -155 money-line favorite with an over/under of 9.5. The Atlanta Braves are in Minnesota to play the Twins at 7:40 p.m. ET. The Braves tap Chris Sale to pitch against the Twins’ David Festa. Atlanta is a -155 money-line road favorite with a total of 7.5. The San Diego Padres visit St. Louis to play the Cardinals at 7:45 p.m. ET. Joe Musgrave takes the mound for the Padres to challenge Andrew Pallante for the Cardinals. San Diego is a -130 money-line road favorite with an over/under of 8.5. Three MLB games start at 8:10 p.m. ET. Texas plays in Chicago with the Rangers turning to Jack Leiter to go against the White Sox’s Chris Flexen. Milwaukee hosts San Francisco with Freddy Peralta getting the ball for the Brewers to duel against Kyle Harrison for the Giants. The Brewers are a -166 money-line favorite with a total of 8. Colorado plays at home against Miami with the Rockies sending out Kyle Freeland to battle against the Marlins’ Max Meyer. The Rockies are a -130 money-line favorite with an over/under of 11. The Arizona Diamondbacks are home against the New York Mets at 9:40 p.m. ET. Brandon Pfaadt takes the hill for the Diamondbacks to pitch against Luis Severino for the Mets. Arizona is a -130 money-line favorite with a total of 8.5. The Los Angeles Dodgers host the Baltimore Orioles at 10:10 p.m. ET. The Dodgers turn to Walker Buehler to face the Orioles’ Corbin Burnes. Los Angeles is a -112 money-line favorite with an over/under of 8.5.

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August Starting Pitching NL Overachievers

by Nelly's Sports

Tuesday, Aug 27, 2024

  August Starting Pitching NL Overachievers There are a few pitchers that stand out as overachievers in the month of August, posting impressive conventional numbers but with some concerns lurking deeper in the data. Here are four National League starters which you should be cautious with supporting moving forward after fortunate recent runs on the mound that are not likely sustainable.  Martin Perez – San Diego Padres Martin Perez has been a useful starter for the Padres since joining the team from the Pirates in August. In five starts with San Diego, Perez has a 2.70 ERA but a 5.19 FIP as it has been a misleading run of success alongside San Diego’s great late season run in the NL West standings. Perez has still allowed six home runs in his five starts for San Diego but only eight runs in total despite allowing 22 hits in just over 26 innings of work. Only one of the five starts for Perez with San Diego has come against a likely playoff team for a favorable August path that has helped his results. Perez has a 6.3 K/9 in his career and a 4.45 ERA and there should be no expectation for his upcoming results to match his strong August returns.  Shota Imanaga – Chicago Cubs 30-year-old rookie Shota Imanaga made a huge early splash for the Cubs, going 5-0 with the Cubs 7-0 in his first seven starts. Chicago is 18-6 in Imanaga starts and the Cubs will face favorite pricing in many of his upcoming outings as Chicago looks to stay on the edge of the NL wild card conversation. Imanaga allowed 10 runs against the Mets in June to put a huge dent in his numbers but in his last six starts his ERA is 3.72 with a 5.12 FIP as he has not matched his early season pace. Imanaga has allowed nine home runs in his last six starts and his K/9 is down to just 7.9 in that run of games. Imanaga has slightly worse season numbers at home, and he hasn’t pitched more than 160 innings for Yokohama since 2019, a number he’ll likely reach by early September this season.  Nick Martinez – Cincinnati Reds After mediocre results with the Texas Rangers early in his career, Nick Martinez pitched in Japan for four seasons. Martinez returned to MLB in 2022 mostly pitching as a reliever with the Padres the past two seasons and finding some success as useful option for situational relief outings and occasional spot starts. With Cincinnati he has pitched well and was moved back to a starting role in August. After two scoreless outings in early August, Martinez has looked like a marginal starter in his last three outings as his ERA is 6.75 with a 6.54 FIP, allowing 11 runs including four home runs, while posting just eight strikeouts. Martinez has a career K/9 of 6.4 and a career HR/9 of 1.3 with a career FIP of 4.74 and that should be the expectation if the Reds keep Martinez in the rotation down the stretch.  David Peterson – New York Mets David Peterson owns an incredible 8-1 record, and the Mets are 12-3 in his starts as New York tries to stay in contact in the NL Wild Card race. Peterson has a 4.20 FIP this season next to his 2.85 ERA and his K/9 is below 7.0. His BB/9 is above 4.0 in his career, and he has had some great fortune in his 85 innings with a .278 BABIP and a strand rate of nearly 82 percent. In August Peterson has allowed only six earned runs in five starts for a 1.71 ERA but his FIP is 3.17 and his xFIP is 4.14 as a lot has gone his way in a small sample of starts that included facing three of MLB’s worst teams. 

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