WNBA Championship Futures Bet

When looking at futures bets, I’m generally not interested in taking the favorite. If a team is going to win the WNBA Championship, I want to know whether the price gives us enough value to justify tying up the money for the weeks and months ahead.

Right now, the Minnesota Lynx deserve to be the favorite. They've won 16 of their last 17 games and have separated themselves from much of the league. But with Minnesota now priced accordingly, there is very little room for error from a value standpoint. So, I’m looking at a team further down the board.

Golden State Valkyries (+900)

The Golden State Valkyries are the team I'm most interested in. It has little to do with them being a longshot bet - there are legitimate reasons to believe Golden State can make a deep playoff run.

The biggest is defense. The Valkyries currently rank No. 1 in the WNBA in defensive rating, which is exactly the type of foundation I want when looking at a championship futures bet. They pass the eye test in that regard as well - few teams have put together as strong of a defensive campaign as the Valkyries this year. 

We know what happens in the playoffs. The pace generally slows down, possessions become more valuable and teams can't simply rely on running up the score against weaker competition. That's where Golden State can shine. And it has already shown it can beat the teams it will likely have to go through.

The market has already moved toward the Valkyries. They opened the season as a much longer shot, but by Aug. 21 they were around +750 at some books. That number has since moved back into a more favorable range.

There is one major question with the Valkyries, and it's their offense. They certainly don't have the same level of firepower as a team like Indiana, nor do they possess the collection of established stars that some of the other contenders have.

That's the argument against them but that's also why we're getting such a generous price.

Every futures bet has to have a reason why the market is offering value. With Golden State, the concern about its offense is already reflected in the price. I'm willing to bet on the Valkyries defense and their ability to make games ugly when necessary. And I'm willing to bet on a team that has already demonstrated it can beat elite competition.