by Rod Pearson
Monday, Sep 29, 2025
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 4, 2025
Venue: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Wisconsin +16.5, Michigan -16.5; Over/Under: 42.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Wisconsin +17, Michigan -17; Over/Under: 42.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Wisconsin +16.5, Michigan -16.5; Over/Under: 42.5 points
Season Record
Wisconsin Badgers: 2-2 (0-1) (17th place, Big Ten)
Michigan Wolverines: 3-1 (1-0) (5th place, Big Ten)
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Recent Form
Wisconsin Badgers: lost their last game at home against the Maryland Terrapins 27-10.
Michigan Wolverines: won their last game on the road against the Nebraska Cornhuskers 30-27.
Wisconsin Badgers vs Michigan Wolverines Preview and Analysis
Wisconsin is entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Maryland 27-10. Danny O'Neil was the starting QB and he completed 14/22 passes for 120 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Darrion Dupree led the team in rushing yards with 52. Trech Kekahuna led the receivers with 77 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Christian Alliegro led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Mason Reiger led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Michigan is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Nebraska 30-27. Bryce Underwood was the starting QB and he completed 12/22 passes for 105 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Justice Haynes led the team in rushing yards with 149 and 1 TD. Donaven McCulley led the receivers with 39 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Ernest Hausmann led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Rayshaun Benny and Derrick Moore each led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Cole Sullivan came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Wisconsin vs Michigan Prediction
The current betting odds have Michigan listed as a 16.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Michigan has looked good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them ranked inside the top 25. Their only loss this year was on the road against Oklahoma and their offense didn't do much in that one, but they have opened up the playbook more in their last 2 games and Underwood has been getting better in every game. Now they are coming out of a bye week after winning a big road game over Nebraska in their last one and that win is going to give them a ton of momentum here. Meanwhile, Wisconsin hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall and their 0-1 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the Big Ten. They are off a bad 27-10 loss at home to Maryland in their last one and Fickell looks like he is on his last legs with this team. Wisconsin is in the middle of an identity crisis with no good offense and they are going to struggle to move the ball against a defense like Michigan's. Michigan looks like a team that has been getting better with every game while Wisconsin is going in the complete opposite direction, and that is going to show in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on Michigan to cover the spread in this game.
Wisconsin Michigan Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 4, 2025 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Michigan 38 Wisconsin 13.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Wisconsin Badgers: 1-4 ATS off a home loss. 2-6 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game. 3-6 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less. 5-0 OVER as a road underdog. 10-5 OVER after playing a game at home.
Michigan Wolverines: 13-6 ATS against conference opponents. 10-5 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 7-0 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less. 5-1 OVER as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 10-5 OVER off a win against a conference rival.
Key Injuries
Wisconsin Badgers: L. Emmerich (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Renfro (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Zachman (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Heywood (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Lemirand (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Pettaway (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Ashcraft (TE) Questionable - Leg. B. Nelson (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Van Dyn Hoven (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Perkins (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Edwards Jr. (QB) Questionable - Knee.
Michigan Wolverines: J. Volker (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Stewart (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Metcalf (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Ka'apana (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Johnson (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Iwunnah (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Hood (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. El-Hadi (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Berry (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Baxter (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Anderson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Warren (QB) Questionable - Knee. B. Norton (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Keene (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Babalola (OG) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“We didn’t do a good enough job on any phase of the game.” - Luke Fickell after his team’s loss against Maryland in their last game.
“He made some excellent throws. He made some excellent runs. The thing you don’t see is his poise and leadership in the huddle and on the sideline. I’m not exaggerating, there was not a doubt in anyone’s mind on our sideline at any point that we weren’t winning that game. And he was a big part of that.” - Biff Poggi after his team’s win against Nebraska in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Wisconsin Badgers
WR Anthony II, Vinny
WR Brooks Jr., Chris
WR Kekahuna, Trech
TE Acker, Jackson
QB O'Neil, Danny
RB Jones, Dilin
Michigan Wolverines
WR McCulley, Donaven
WR Goodwin, Channing
WR Morgan, Semaj
TE Klein, Marlin
QB Underwood, Bryce
RB Haynes, Justice
Statistical Leaders
Wisconsin Badgers
Passing: Danny O'Neil (640)
Rushing: Dilin Jones (154)
Receiving: Lance Mason (177)
Touchdowns: Lance Mason (2)
Michigan Wolverines
Passing: Bryce Underwood (733)
Rushing: Justice Haynes (537)
Receiving: Donaven McCulley (197)
Touchdowns: Justice Haynes (6)
Coaches:
Wisconsin Badgers: Luke Fickell (4th season)
Michigan Wolverines: Sherrone Moore (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
