by Team Del Genio
Saturday, Jan 31, 2026The most predictable aspect of the college football national championship game was the formula that Miami head coach Mario Cristobal must approach to pull off the upset. The Hurricanes could not get into a shootout with the Hoosiers. Instead, Miami needed to slow this game down to a crawl, wage a war of physicality on both sides of the football, and get that game into the fourth quarter, where they remain in a position to win the game.
Three of Indiana’s victories were decided by five points or less. In those games against Iowa, Ohio State, and Penn State, there were common factors that helped those teams keep the score close. Whether or not the Hurricanes can execute this game plan remains a big question (that we answered in our play on the side in this game). But Miami’s strategy is likely to be similar to that of the Hawkeyes, Buckeyes, and Nittany Lions: run the ball, keep the Indiana offense off the field, don’t commit turnovers, and slow down the Hoosiers rushing attack.
Iowa lost by just five points, 20-15. They ran the ball 31 times but for only 92 yards. Yet this approach helped their offense be on the field for 32:42 minutes. They held the Hoosiers to just 104 rushing yards despite their 39 attempts (2.7 yards per carry). Perhaps most importantly, they did not turn the ball over.
In Ohio State’s 13-10 loss to Indiana, they only ran the ball 26 times. Yet with their reliable passing game with their great wide receivers, they controlled time of possession with their offense on the field for 30:13 minutes. They held the Hoosiers to 118 rushing yards on 34 carries (3.5 yards per carry). They had one turnover.
Indiana’s closest scare was against Penn State when they rallied to win, 27-24, with a miracle fourth-down pass conversion. They held Indiana to 108 rushing yards on 31 carries (3.5 yards per carry). They barely lost the time of possession battle with the Hoosiers’ offense on the field for 30:37 minutes. Their two turnovers might have cost them the game.
For the season, the Hoosiers averaged 5.4 yards per carry. Their average time of possession was 33:47 minutes. In their 12 other games, they averaged 2.2 takeaways per game. In their semifinal game against Oregon, the Ducks presented a blueprint for exactly the wrong way to play them. The first play from scrimmage was intercepted for a touchdown, immediately impacting the game script. In the first half alone, turnovers and a blocked punt set up three other touchdown drives of less than 20 yards. The score at halftime was 35-7. Game over.
If nothing else, Miami could not do that. The Hurricanes beat Ohio State and Texas A&M in the playoffs despite scoring only 17 and 10 points. They got to 31 points against Ole Miss in the semifinals against a defense that had given up 418 yards per game when playing on the road. Indiana gives 261 yards per game. About all Cristobal can reasonably expect from his team is to score in the low-20s against this stout Hoosiers defense.
Good luck - TDG.
Three of Indiana’s victories were decided by five points or less. In those games against Iowa, Ohio State, and Penn State, there were common factors that helped those teams keep the score close. Whether or not the Hurricanes can execute this game plan remains a big question (that we answered in our play on the side in this game). But Miami’s strategy is likely to be similar to that of the Hawkeyes, Buckeyes, and Nittany Lions: run the ball, keep the Indiana offense off the field, don’t commit turnovers, and slow down the Hoosiers rushing attack.
Iowa lost by just five points, 20-15. They ran the ball 31 times but for only 92 yards. Yet this approach helped their offense be on the field for 32:42 minutes. They held the Hoosiers to just 104 rushing yards despite their 39 attempts (2.7 yards per carry). Perhaps most importantly, they did not turn the ball over.
In Ohio State’s 13-10 loss to Indiana, they only ran the ball 26 times. Yet with their reliable passing game with their great wide receivers, they controlled time of possession with their offense on the field for 30:13 minutes. They held the Hoosiers to 118 rushing yards on 34 carries (3.5 yards per carry). They had one turnover.
Indiana’s closest scare was against Penn State when they rallied to win, 27-24, with a miracle fourth-down pass conversion. They held Indiana to 108 rushing yards on 31 carries (3.5 yards per carry). They barely lost the time of possession battle with the Hoosiers’ offense on the field for 30:37 minutes. Their two turnovers might have cost them the game.
For the season, the Hoosiers averaged 5.4 yards per carry. Their average time of possession was 33:47 minutes. In their 12 other games, they averaged 2.2 takeaways per game. In their semifinal game against Oregon, the Ducks presented a blueprint for exactly the wrong way to play them. The first play from scrimmage was intercepted for a touchdown, immediately impacting the game script. In the first half alone, turnovers and a blocked punt set up three other touchdown drives of less than 20 yards. The score at halftime was 35-7. Game over.
If nothing else, Miami could not do that. The Hurricanes beat Ohio State and Texas A&M in the playoffs despite scoring only 17 and 10 points. They got to 31 points against Ole Miss in the semifinals against a defense that had given up 418 yards per game when playing on the road. Indiana gives 261 yards per game. About all Cristobal can reasonably expect from his team is to score in the low-20s against this stout Hoosiers defense.
Good luck - TDG.
