by Team Del Genio
Monday, Apr 27, 2026After three straight upset losses, it felt unbearable to back the Houston Rockets in Game 4 of their Western Conference quarterfinals series with the Los Angeles Lakers, especially with Kevin Durant unlikely to play due to his left ankle sprain.
However, backing teams trailing 0-3 in a series is often a good spot. Yet teams in the first round of the NBA playoffs trailing 0-3 hd only won twelve of those previous thirty-eight games, and they were 16-21-1 against the spread. Teams with a 3-0 series lead playing on the road in games when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog had covered the point spread in nine of those previous fourteen games. The Rockets had not been a good team against the spread all season, given their 36-49 against-the-spread record.
Considering all this, targeting Houston in the 1st Half was the optimal path for this situation.
The Lakers had not been a great 1st Half team under these circumstances. They were on a six-game winning streak after their 112-108 win in overtime as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. Yet Los Angeles had not covered the 1st Half point spread in five straight games on the road after pulling off an upset victory. They had covered the 1st Half point spread twice in their previous thirteen games after winning their previous game by six points or less. It would not be a surprise that the Lakers come out complacent after dominating this series.
Slow starts on the road were not uncommon for this team. They were outscoring their opponents by 1.0 points per game this year, yet they were going into halftime with an average lead of only 0.2 points. On the road, they were going into the locker room at halftime trailing by an average of -0.9 points. Los Angeles had a 22-20 against the spread record on the road, yet they were 18-22 against the spread on the road against the 1st Half number. Luca Doncic remains out with an injury. Austin Reaves was questionable to play after not yet taking the court in this series.
Houston does perform better in the 1st Half under head coach Ime Udoka. They were outscoring their opponents by 4.8 points per game this year, and they got 3.0 of that point lead in the 1st Half. At home, they were going into the locker room at halftime with a +4.7 average point lead. In the last month, they had averaged 60.2 points in the 1st Half with an average lead of 7.4 points. The Rockets were slightly better against the 1st Half number with a 38-46 against the spread mark. Yet in their twelve previous games this year at home, when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of six points or less, they had covered the 1st Half point spread seven times. In their six previous games in the playoffs, they had covered the 1st Half point spread four times. The Lakers were averaging 116.0 points per game, and Houston had covered the 1st Half point spread in twelve of their previous twenty games at home against opponents that average 116.0 or more points. In their ten games at home under Udoka, when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 200 to 209.5, they had covered the 1st Half point spread in six of those games.
With their backs against the wall, a spirited effort to begin the game in front of their home fans after an overtime loss would not be unexpected. Perhaps the Rockets could pull out a close game in the 2nd Half even without Durant? They had not been a good team in the clutch all season, and they are playing without their best player. Yet we did not want to walk down that road.
We took Houston minus the points in the 1st Half. As expected, the Rockets came out with purpose in front of their home fans and took a 56-47 lead into halftime to safely cover the 2-point 1st Half line installed by the oddsmakers. Houston did not have to worry about clutch time in this one as they went on to cruise to a 115-96 victory to force a fifth game in this series. They covered the full game point spread. Yet, bypassing the full game point spread for the 1st Half point spread option was probably the optimal decision in hindsight, and the one most likely to lead to more profits.
Good luck - TDG.
However, backing teams trailing 0-3 in a series is often a good spot. Yet teams in the first round of the NBA playoffs trailing 0-3 hd only won twelve of those previous thirty-eight games, and they were 16-21-1 against the spread. Teams with a 3-0 series lead playing on the road in games when the oddsmakers installed them as an underdog had covered the point spread in nine of those previous fourteen games. The Rockets had not been a good team against the spread all season, given their 36-49 against-the-spread record.
Considering all this, targeting Houston in the 1st Half was the optimal path for this situation.
The Lakers had not been a great 1st Half team under these circumstances. They were on a six-game winning streak after their 112-108 win in overtime as a 7.5-point underdog on Friday. Yet Los Angeles had not covered the 1st Half point spread in five straight games on the road after pulling off an upset victory. They had covered the 1st Half point spread twice in their previous thirteen games after winning their previous game by six points or less. It would not be a surprise that the Lakers come out complacent after dominating this series.
Slow starts on the road were not uncommon for this team. They were outscoring their opponents by 1.0 points per game this year, yet they were going into halftime with an average lead of only 0.2 points. On the road, they were going into the locker room at halftime trailing by an average of -0.9 points. Los Angeles had a 22-20 against the spread record on the road, yet they were 18-22 against the spread on the road against the 1st Half number. Luca Doncic remains out with an injury. Austin Reaves was questionable to play after not yet taking the court in this series.
Houston does perform better in the 1st Half under head coach Ime Udoka. They were outscoring their opponents by 4.8 points per game this year, and they got 3.0 of that point lead in the 1st Half. At home, they were going into the locker room at halftime with a +4.7 average point lead. In the last month, they had averaged 60.2 points in the 1st Half with an average lead of 7.4 points. The Rockets were slightly better against the 1st Half number with a 38-46 against the spread mark. Yet in their twelve previous games this year at home, when the oddsmakers installed them as a favorite of six points or less, they had covered the 1st Half point spread seven times. In their six previous games in the playoffs, they had covered the 1st Half point spread four times. The Lakers were averaging 116.0 points per game, and Houston had covered the 1st Half point spread in twelve of their previous twenty games at home against opponents that average 116.0 or more points. In their ten games at home under Udoka, when the oddsmakers installed the over/under from 200 to 209.5, they had covered the 1st Half point spread in six of those games.
With their backs against the wall, a spirited effort to begin the game in front of their home fans after an overtime loss would not be unexpected. Perhaps the Rockets could pull out a close game in the 2nd Half even without Durant? They had not been a good team in the clutch all season, and they are playing without their best player. Yet we did not want to walk down that road.
We took Houston minus the points in the 1st Half. As expected, the Rockets came out with purpose in front of their home fans and took a 56-47 lead into halftime to safely cover the 2-point 1st Half line installed by the oddsmakers. Houston did not have to worry about clutch time in this one as they went on to cruise to a 115-96 victory to force a fifth game in this series. They covered the full game point spread. Yet, bypassing the full game point spread for the 1st Half point spread option was probably the optimal decision in hindsight, and the one most likely to lead to more profits.
Good luck - TDG.
