by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Oct 02, 2025
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, October 5, 2025
Venue: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Commanders +2.5, Chargers -2.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Commanders +2.5, Chargers -2.5; Over/Under: 48 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Commanders +2.5, Chargers -2.5; Over/Under: 48 points
Season Record
Washington Commanders: 2-2 (2nd place, NFC East)
Los Angeles Chargers: 3-1 (1st place, AFC West)
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Recent Form
Washington Commanders: lost their last game on the road against the Atlanta Falcons 34-27.
Los Angeles Chargers: lost their last game on the road against the New York Giants 21-18.
Washington Commanders vs Los Angeles Chargers Preview and Analysis
The Commanders are entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Atlanta Falcons 34-27. Marcus Mariota was the starting QB and he completed 16/27 passes for 156 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Chris Rodriguez Jr. led the team in rushing yards with 59. Deebo Samuel Sr. led the receivers with 72 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Frankie Luvu led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Frankie Luvu led the defense in sacks with 1. Mike Sainristil came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Chargers are entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the New York Giants 21-18. Justin Herbert was the starting QB and he completed 23/41 passes for 203 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Omarion Hampton led the team in rushing yards with 128 and 1 TD. Quentin Johnston led the receivers with 98 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Daiyan Henley led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Tuli Tuipulotu led the defense in sacks with 4. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Commanders vs Chargers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Chargers listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chargers have looked really good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall which has them right at the top of the AFC West. They are off their first loss of the season on the road to the Giants, but they will be looking to bounce back after that bad game. Harbaugh has done wonders with this team in 2 years and even with that loss last week, they look like one of the best teams in the NFL this season. Meanwhile, the Commanders haven't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall. They are off a 34-27 loss to the Falcons in their last one and they were always trailing in that game, but they have also been missing their starting QB in their last 2 games. Jayden Daniels will be back for this game and that is going to be a huge boost to this Commanders offense, but it still won't be enough on the road to overcome this Chargers defense. The Commanders also have some big holes on defense and the Chargers have the talent on offense to make them pay. The Chargers will be looking to bounce back at home and they are the better team on both sides of the ball. The best way to place a bet here is on the Chargers to cover the spread in this game.
Commanders Chargers Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 5, 2025 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Chargers 30 Commanders 23.
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NFL Betting Trends
Washington Commanders: 8-4 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 7-4 ATS in non-conference games. 34-26 UNDER vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.7 or less passing yards/att. 41-27 UNDER versus good defensive teams - allowing 285 yards/game or less.
Los Angeles Chargers: 3-7 ATS in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5. 2-6 ATS after a loss by 6 or less points. 3-8 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play or more. 23-15 UNDER in all games. 13-6 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.
Key Injuries
Washington Commanders: V. Miller (LB) Injured - NIR-Rest. N. Bellore (LB) Injured - Quad. Z. Ertz (TE) Injured - NIR-Rest. N. Brown (WR) Injured - Groin. L. Tunsil (OT) Injured - NIR-Rest. D. Armstrong (DL) Injured - Illness. J. Bates (TE) Injured - Calf. T. McLaurin (WR) Injured - Quad. S. Cosmi (OG) Injured - Knee. D. Samuel (WR) Injured - Heel. P. Butler (S) Injured - Hip. M. Sainristil (CB) Injured - Knee. J. Daniels (QB) Injured - Knee. A. Kaho (LB) Injured - Concussion.
Los Angeles Chargers: K. Allen (WR) Injured - NIR-Rest. D. James Jr. (S) Injured - Glute. W. Dissly (TE) Injured - Knee. M. Becton (OG) Injured - Concussion. A. James (C) Injured - Neck. D. Davis (WR) Injured - Knee. T. Still (CB) Injured - Ankle. J. Alt (OT) Injured - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“I know our team is going to battle back. As a whole, I thought we ran the ball effectively. We missed a few opportunities and you just can't beat yourself on some things.” - Dan Quinn after his team’s loss against the Falcons in their last game.
“It stinks. Guys fought. Guys battled. We weren’t able to, and I wasn’t able to put us in position to win the game.” - Jim Harbaugh after his team’s loss against the Giants in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Washington Commanders
WR Moore, Chris
WR McCaffrey, Luke
WR Samuel, Deebo
TE Ertz, Zach
QB Daniels, Jayden
RB Croskey-Merritt, Jacory
Los Angeles Chargers
WR Johnston, Quentin
WR Allen, Keenan
WR McConkey, Ladd
TE Conklin, Tyler
QB Herbert, Justin
RB Hampton, Omarion
FB Matlock, Scott
Statistical Leaders
Washington Commanders
Passing: Jayden Daniels (433)
Rushing: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (172)
Receiving: Deebo Samuel (204)
Touchdowns: Deebo Samuel (3)
Los Angeles Chargers
Passing: Justin Herbert (1,063)
Rushing: Omarion Hampton (270)
Receiving: Quentin Johnston (337)
Touchdowns: Quentin Johnston (4)
Coaches:
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (2nd season)
Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
