by Rod Pearson
Friday, Oct 24, 2025
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Monday, October 27, 2025
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Where to Watch: ESPN, ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Commanders +12.5, Chiefs -12.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Commanders +12.5, Chiefs -12.5; Over/Under: 48 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Commanders +12.5, Chiefs -12.5; Over/Under: 48 points
Season Record
Washington Commanders: 3-4 (3rd place, NFC East)
Kansas City Chiefs: 4-3 (3rd place, AFC West)
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Washington Commanders: lost their last game on the road against the Dallas Cowboys 44-22.
Kansas City Chiefs: won their last game at home against the Las Vegas Raiders 31-0.
Washington Commanders vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview and Analysis
The Commanders are entering this game with a 3-4 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Dallas Cowboys 44-22. Jayden Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 12/22 passes for 156 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Jayden Daniels led the team in rushing yards with 35 and 1 TD. Jaylin Lane led the receivers with 60 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Bobby Wagner led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Von Miller and Jacob Martin each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Chiefs are entering this game with a 4-3 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Las Vegas Raiders 31-0. Patrick Mahomes was the starting QB and he completed 26/35 passes for 286 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Isiah Pacheco led the team in rushing yards with 57 and 1 TD. Travis Kelce led the receivers with 54 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Trent McDuffie led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Chris Jones led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Commanders vs Chiefs Prediction
The current betting odds have the Chiefs listed as a 12.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Chiefs have looked good in their games this season with their 4-3 record overall which has them near the bottom of the AFC West, but they had a really slow start to the season and are starting to look a lot better in recent weeks. They have been rolling lately with 2 wins in a row now and they are off a 31-0 win over the Raiders in their last one. The defense has looked really good as it usually does, and the offense has looked a lot better lately as they are starting to get healthier. Meanwhile, the Commanders haven't looked great in their games this season with their 3-4 record overall which has them near the bottom of the NFC East. They had a decent start to the season, but they are like the opposite of the Chiefs as the injuries have been piling up for them lately. They have already been missing some key WR's, but now they are without Jayden Daniels in this one and that is going to be a huge blow to this offense. Mariota hasn't looked bad in his few appearances, but he isn't Jayden Daniels and this offense is way too banged up to put a dent in this Chiefs defense. The Commanders don't have a great defense either so this Chiefs offense that has been getting better every week is going to put up points at home. The best way to place a bet here is on the Chiefs to cover the spread in this game.
Commanders Chiefs Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Monday, October 27, 2025 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Chiefs 31 Commanders 13.
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NFL Betting Trends
Washington Commanders: 0-3 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points. 0-3 ATS off a road loss against a division rival. 4-7 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. 17-9 OVER as an underdog. 6-1 OVER off a loss against a division rival.
Kansas City Chiefs: 10-4 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 9-3 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game or more. 13-6 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play or more. 5-2 OVER after a win by 14 or more points.
Key Injuries
Washington Commanders: S. Cosmi (OG) Injured - Back. Z. Ertz (TE) Injured - NIR-Rest. J. Jones (CB) Injured - NIR - Personal. V. Miller (LB) Injured - NIR-Rest. D. Payne (DL) Injured - NIR-Rest. L. Tunsil (OT) Injured - NIR-Rest. T. McLaurin (WR) Injured - Quad. D. Samuel (WR) Injured - Heel. B. Wagner (LB) Injured - Thumb. J. Daniels (QB) Out - Hamstring.
Kansas City Chiefs: J. Simmons (OT) Injured - NIR-Personal. K. Hunt (RB) Injured - Ankle. T. Smith (OG) Injured - Back. C. Omenihu (DL) Injured - Ankle. C. Roland-Wallace (CB) Injured - Hand. B. Smith (RB) Injured - Toe. J. Taylor (OT) Injured - Knee. J. Tillery (DL) Injured - Elbow. J. Watson (CB) Injured - Back. X. Worthy (WR) Injured - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“Injuries are not the reason that we lost. We’re the ones that got ourselves in a hole, we’re the same ones that have got to dig ourselves out. Make no mistake, we’re not playing to the standard we’ve set.” - Dan Quinn after his team’s loss against the Cowboys in their last game.
“I think you saw the trust that Pat has in him. The energy he brings is infectious.” - Andy Reid after his team’s win against the Raiders in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Washington Commanders
WR McCaffrey, Luke
WR Moore, Chris
WR Lane, Jaylin
TE Ertz, Zach
QB Mariota, Marcus
RB Croskey-Merritt, Jacory
Kansas City Chiefs
WR Worthy, Xavier
WR Brown, Hollywood
WR Rice, Rashee
TE Kelce, Travis
QB Mahomes, Patrick
RB Pacheco, Isiah
Statistical Leaders
Washington Commanders
Passing: Jayden Daniels (1,031)
Rushing: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (377)
Receiving: Deebo Samuel (315)
Touchdowns: Deebo Samuel (4)
Kansas City Chiefs
Passing: Patrick Mahomes (1,800)
Rushing: Isiah Pacheco (271)
Receiving: Travis Kelce (375)
Touchdowns: Patrick Mahomes (4)
Coaches:
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (2nd season)
Kansas City Chiefs: Andy Reid (13th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
