by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Sep 09, 2025
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Thursday, September 11, 2025
Venue: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Commanders +3.5, Packers -3.5; Over/Under: 48.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Commanders +3.5, Packers -3.5; Over/Under: 48 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Commanders +3.5, Packers -3.5; Over/Under: 48 points
Season Record
Washington Commanders: 1-0 (2nd place, NFC East)
Green Bay Packers: 1-0 (1st place, NFC North)
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Recent Form
Washington Commanders: won their last game at home against the New York Giants 21-6.
Green Bay Packers: won their last game at home against the Detroit Lions 27-13.
Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers Preview and Analysis
The Commanders are entering this game with a 1-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the New York Giants 21-6. Jayden Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 19/30 passes for 233 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Jacory Croskey-Merritt led the team in rushing yards with 82 and 1 TD. Deebo Samuel Sr. led the receivers with 77 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Bobby Wagner led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Dorance Armstrong and Daron Payne each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Packers are entering this game with a 1-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Detroit Lions 27-13. Jordan Love was the starting QB and he completed 16/22 passes for 188 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Josh Jacobs led the team in rushing yards with 66 and 1 TD. Romeo Doubs led the receivers with 68 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Edgerrin Cooper led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Rashan Gary led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Evan Williams came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Commanders vs Packers Prediction
The current betting odds have the Packers listed as a 3.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Packers have a 1-0 record overall and they looked really good in their season opener. They won their home opener against the Lions 27-13 and the game was never really close. The Packers jumped out to a big lead and never looked back with their defense shutting down one of the best offenses in the NFL last season. The offense also looked good between Jordan Love and the run game. Meanwhile, the Commanders have a 1-0 record overall and they also looked good in their season opener. They won their home opener against the Giants 21-6, but it wasn't the best game for them. The defense looked great as they held the Giants to 6 points and didn't give up a TD, but that was also more of an indictment on the Giants offense. The Commanders also struggled to pull away against that Giants defense which isn't bad and now they are playing their first road game of the season on a short week against a better defense that just added one of the best players in the NFL, Micah Parsons. This is a tough situation for the Commanders on the road on a short week while the Packers haven't had to travel and have the momentum from a big divisional win in week 1. The best way to place a bet here is on the Packers to cover the spread in this game.
Commanders Packers Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Thursday, September 11, 2025 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Packers 24 Commanders 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Washington Commanders: 5-9 ATS on the road when playing on a Thursday. 23-31 1H ATS after a win by 14 or more points. 23-15 OVER in all games. 12-3 OVER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 9-2 OVER after playing a division game.
Green Bay Packers: 6-3 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 8-4 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 5-0 ATS off a win against a division rival. 6-3 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 9-2 OVER off a home win.
Key Injuries
Washington Commanders: T. Way (P) Injured - Back. A. Ekeler (RB) Injured - Shoulder. J. Bates (TE) Injured - Shoulder. J. Daniels (QB) Injured - Wrist. D. Payne (DL) Injured - Calf. D. Wise (DL) Injured - Knee. N. Brown (WR) Injured - Knee.
Green Bay Packers: B. Melton (CB) Injured - Shoulder. D. Whelan (P) Injured - Knee. A. Banks (OG) Injured - Ankle. Z. Tom (OG) Injured - Oblique. B. Cox Jr. (DL) Injured - Groin. M. Golden (WR) Injured - Ankle. Z. Anderson (S) Injured - Knee. N. Hobbs (CB) Injured - Knee. J. Love (QB) Injured - Thumb. M. Parsons (DL) Injured - Back. J. Reed (WR) Injured - Foot. D. Wicks (WR) Injured - Calf. B. Sorrell (DL) Injured - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“You heard me talk about identity, the tackling. We didn't create the takeaways today, but man, seeing some plays down inside the 10-yard line, in the red zone, the guys have worked hard at that.” - Dan Quinn after his team’s win against the Giants in their last game.
“Obviously I think a big goal for us was to be able to come in here and start the season off fast and start the season on the right note. To come in here Week 1 at home and get a dominant win like that is amazing and exactly what we'd been working for.” - Jordan Love after their win against the Lions in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Brown, Noah
WR Samuel, Deebo
TE Ertz, Zach
QB Daniels, Jayden
RB Ekeler, Austin
Green Bay Packers
WR Doubs, Romeo
WR Golden, Matthew
WR Reed, Jayden
TE Kraft, Tucker
QB Love, Jordan
RB Jacobs, Josh
Statistical Leaders
Washington Commanders
Passing: J. Daniels (233)
Rushing: J. Croskey-Merritt (82)
Receiving: D. Samuel (77)
Touchdowns: D. Samuel (1)
Green Bay Packers
Passing: J. Love (188)
Rushing: J. Jacobs (66)
Receiving: R. Doubs (68)
Touchdowns: J. Jacobs (1)
Coaches:
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (2nd season)
Green Bay Packers: Matt LaFleur (7th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
