by Rod Pearson
Friday, Oct 17, 2025
Game Time: 4:25 pm ET, Sunday, October 19, 2025
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Commanders -2.5, Cowboys +2.5; Over/Under: 54.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Commanders -1, Cowboys +1; Over/Under: 54.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Commanders -2, Cowboys +2; Over/Under: 55 points
Season Record
Washington Commanders: 3-3 (2nd place, NFC East)
Dallas Cowboys: 2-3-1 (3rd place, NFC East)
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Recent Form
Washington Commanders: lost their last game at home against the Chicago Bears 25-24.
Dallas Cowboys: lost their last game on the road against the Carolina Panthers 30-27.
Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys Preview and Analysis
The Commanders are entering this game with a 3-3 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Chicago Bears 25-24. Jayden Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 19/26 passes for 211 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jacory Croskey-Merritt led the team in rushing yards with 61. Chris Moore led the receivers with 46 receiving yards on 3 receptions and 1 TD. Bobby Wagner led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Frankie Luvu and Jeremy Reaves each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Cowboys are entering this game with a 2-3-1 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0-1 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Carolina Panthers 30-27. Dak Prescott was the starting QB and he completed 25/34 passes for 261 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Javonte Williams led the team in rushing yards with 29. George Pickens led the receivers with 168 receiving yards on 9 receptions and 1 TD. Shemar James led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Marist Liufau led the defense in sacks with 1. Donovan Wilson came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Commanders vs Cowboys Prediction
The current betting odds have the Commanders listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Commanders haven't looked great in their games this season with their 3-3 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NFC East. They are off a tough loss on Monday night to the Bears, losing 25-24, but they didn't look bad in that one. They lost the game on a costly fumble in the final minutes, but that was a bad weather game and they will be looking to bounce back here against a division rival. Meanwhile, the Cowboys haven't looked great in their games this season with their 2-3-1 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NFC East. They have looked better in their home games this season and they do have one of the best offenses in the NFL, but they also have one of the worst defenses. They have been giving up a ton of points all season, even giving up 37 or more points in both of their home games, and they are off a 30-27 loss to the Panthers in their last one in a game where they just couldn't get a stop. The Cowboys defense has been holding them back all season and they are going to struggle to stop this Commanders offense that has been running all over teams all year. The Commanders will be looking to bounce back in this one and they have the better defense to do so. The best way to place a bet here is on the Commanders to cover the spread in this game.
Commanders Cowboys Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, October 19, 2025 (4:25 pm ET start time) is Commanders 38 Cowboys 35.
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NFL Betting Trends
Washington Commanders: 9-4 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 6-3 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). 25-18 OVER in all games. 5-1 OVER after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. 10-5 OVER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game.
Dallas Cowboys: 2-6 ATS in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5. 5-11 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 24 or more points/game. 4-8 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game or more. 14-6 OVER in home games. 8-3 OVER in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 45.5.
Key Injuries
Washington Commanders: A. Kaho (LB) Injured - Illness. D. Armstrong (DL) Injured - Hamstring. J. Bates (TE) Injured - NIR-Rest. Z. Ertz (TE) Injured - Shoulder. J. Kinlaw (DL) Injured - NIR-Rest. V. Miller (LB) Injured - NIR-Rest. C. Rodriguez Jr. (RB) Injured - Calf. D. Samuel (WR) Injured - Heel. L. Tunsil (OT) Injured - NIR-Rest. B. Wagner (LB) Injured - NIR-Rest. D. Payne (DL) Injured - NIR-Rest. T. McLaurin (WR) Injured - Quad. S. Cosmi (OG) Injured - Knee. J. Daniels (QB) Injured - Knee. J. Jones (CB) Injured - Hamstring.
Dallas Cowboys: J. Thomas (S) Injured - Migraine. T. Diggs (CB) Injured - Knee. J. Houston (DL) Injured - Knee. C. Lamb (WR) Injured - Ankle. K. Turpin (WR) Injured - Foot. D. Wilson (S) Injured - Elbow. J. Sanborn (LB) Injured - Concussion. J. Mingo (WR) Injured - Knee. T. Smith (OG) Injured - Knee. T. Keegan (OG) Injured - Neck. C. Carson (CB) Injured - Knee. M. Kneeland (DL) Injured - Ankle. A. Cornelius (OT) Injured - Knee. T. Booker (OG) Injured - Ankle.
Notable Quotes
“It’s frustrating for him because he’s working at it hard.” - Dan Quinn on Terry McLaurin being ruled out again.
“We knew they were a physical football team. They were able to run it and we weren’t.” - Brian Schottenheimer after his team’s loss against the Panthers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Washington Commanders
WR McCaffrey, Luke
WR Moore, Chris
WR Samuel, Deebo
TE Ertz, Zach
QB Daniels, Jayden
RB Croskey-Merritt, Jacory
Dallas Cowboys
WR Pickens, George
WR Tolbert, Jalen
WR Flournoy, Ryan
TE Ferguson, Jake
QB Prescott, Dak
RB Williams, Javonte
FB Luepke, Hunter
Statistical Leaders
Washington Commanders
Passing: Jayden Daniels (875)
Rushing: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (344)
Receiving: Deebo Samuel (315)
Touchdowns: Deebo Samuel (4)
Dallas Cowboys
Passing: Dak Prescott (1,617)
Rushing: Javonte Williams (476)
Receiving: George Pickens (525)
Touchdowns: Javonte Williams (6)
Coaches:
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (2nd season)
Dallas Cowboys: Brian Schottenheimer (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
