by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Sep 23, 2025
Game Time: 1:00 pm ET, Sunday, September 28, 2025
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Commanders -2.5, Falcons +2.5; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Commanders -2.5, Falcons +2.5; Over/Under: 45.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Commanders -2.5, Falcons +2.5; Over/Under: 45.5 points
Season Record
Washington Commanders: 2-1 (2nd place, NFC East)
Atlanta Falcons: 1-2 (3rd place, NFC South)
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Recent Form
Washington Commanders: won their last game at home against the Las Vegas Raiders 41-24.
Atlanta Falcons: lost their last game on the road against the Carolina Panthers 30-0.
Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons Preview and Analysis
The Commanders are entering this game with a 2-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against the Las Vegas Raiders 41-24. Marcus Mariota was the starting QB and he completed 15/21 passes for 207 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Jeremy McNichols led the team in rushing yards with 78 and 1 TD. Terry McLaurin led the receivers with 74 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Bobby Wagner led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Bobby Wagner led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
The Falcons are entering this game with a 1-2 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against the Carolina Panthers 30-0. Michael Penix Jr. was the starting QB and he completed 18/36 passes for 172 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Bijan Robinson led the team in rushing yards with 72. Drake London led the receivers with 55 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Xavier Watts led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Kaden Elliss led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Commanders vs Falcons Prediction
The current betting odds have the Commanders listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Commanders have looked good in their games this season with their 2-1 record overall. Their only loss was against the Packers on the road, but they steamrolled in their 2 wins and are coming off a 41-24 win over the Raiders with their backup QB. Daniels could be back for this game which would give a huge boost to the offense, but Mariota looked great in the offense last week so it won't be an issue if he has to play again. Meanwhile, the Falcons haven't looked great in their games this season with their 1-2 record overall and both losses coming in the division. They opened the year with a tight loss to the Bucs at home, but now they are off a terrible 30-0 loss in Carolina to one of the worst teams in the NFL. The offense looked terrible in that game and they haven't looked great for most of the season either. They have been relying a lot on their defense to keep them in these games, but this Commanders offense has improved with a lot more talent than they had last season so it is not going to be easy for this Falcons defense to slow down the Commanders. The Commanders have the momentum on their side from that big win over the Raiders while the Falcons are coming off a terrible loss against a bad team and have a lot of questions about themselves to answer. The best way to place a bet here is on the Commanders to cover the spread in this game.
Commanders Falcons Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Sunday, September 28, 2025 (1:00 pm ET start time) is Commanders 23 Falcons 20.
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NFL Betting Trends
Washington Commanders: 8-3 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 6-2 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%). 5-2 ATS vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game. 24-16 OVER in all games. 9-3 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 130 rushing yards/game or more.
Atlanta Falcons: 12-24 ATS in all games. 8-17 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. 4-11 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 7-2 OVER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more. 6-2 OVER versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.65 yards/play or more.
Key Injuries
Washington Commanders: V. Miller (LB) Injured - NIR - Rest. Z. Ertz (TE) Injured - NIR - Rest. N. Brown (WR) Injured - Groin. L. Tunsil (OT) Injured - NIR - Rest. D. Payne (DL) Injured - NIR - Rest. J. Bates (TE) Injured - Calf. T. McLaurin (WR) Injured - Quad. P. Butler (S) Injured - Hip. C. Yankoff (TE) Injured - Ankle. J. Daniels (QB) Injured - Knee. J. Croskey-Merritt (RB) Injured - Knee. T. Amos (CB) Injured - Calf.
Atlanta Falcons: J. Agnew (WR) Injured - Groin. K. Hodge (WR) Injured - Groin. A. Terrell Jr. (CB) Injured - Hamstring. K. Pitts Sr. (TE) Injured - Toe. D. Hellams (S) Injured - Hamstring. C. Washington (WR) Injured - Concussion. N. Carter (RB) Injured - Hamstring. J. Pearce Jr. (DL) Injured - Groin.
Notable Quotes
“It does speak to the team and, when called upon, being able to deliver. You don’t know who’s going to be the one to take that step and make the one (big play)." - Dan Quinn after his team’s win against the Raiders in their last game.
“Game was out of hand. Move on and take some guys out of harm’s way." - Raheem Morris after his team’s loss against the Panthers in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Washington Commanders
WR McLaurin, Terry
WR Lane, Jaylin
WR Samuel, Deebo
TE Ertz, Zach
QB Mariota, Marcus
RB Croskey-Merritt, Jacory
Atlanta Falcons
WR Mooney, Darnell
WR London, Drake
WR McCloud III, Ray-Ray
TE Pitts Sr., Kyle
QB Penix Jr., Michael
RB Robinson, Bijan
Statistical Leaders
Washington Commanders
Passing: Jayden Daniels (433)
Rushing: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (125)
Receiving: Terry McLaurin (149)
Touchdowns: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (2)
Atlanta Falcons
Passing: Michael Penix Jr. (605)
Rushing: Bijan Robinson (239)
Receiving: Bijan Robinson (164)
Touchdowns: Bijan Robinson (1)
Coaches:
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn (2nd season)
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
