by Rod Pearson
Monday, Oct 20, 2025
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 25, 2025
Venue: Kenan Memorial Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
Where to Watch: ACC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: UVA -10, UNC +10; Over/Under: 51.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: UVA -10, UNC +10; Over/Under: 51.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: UVA -10.5, UNC +10.5; Over/Under: 52.5 points
Season Record
Virginia Cavaliers: 6-1 (3-0) (2nd place, ACC)
North Carolina Tar Heels: 2-4 (0-2) (16th place, ACC)
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Recent Form
Virginia Cavaliers: won their last game at home against the Washington State Cougars 22-20.
North Carolina Tar Heels: lost their last game on the road against the California Golden Bears 21-18.
Virginia Cavaliers vs North Carolina Tar Heels Preview and Analysis
Virginia is entering this game with a 6-1 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their conference games too. They are 5-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Washington State 22-20. Chandler Morris was the starting QB and he completed 15/25 passes for 179 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. J'Mari Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 47. Jahmal Edrine led the receivers with 102 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Devin Neal led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Fisher Camac led the defense in sacks with 1. Donavon Platt and Ja'Son Prevard each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
North Carolina is entering this game with a 2-4 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their conference games too. They are 1-2 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against California 21-18. Gio Lopez was the starting QB and he completed 19/35 passes for 167 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Benjamin Hall led the team in rushing yards with 68 and 1 TD. Kobe Paysour led the receivers with 101 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Will Hardy led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Tyler Thompson led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction
The current betting odds have Virginia listed as a 10 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Virginia has looked great in their games this season with their 6-1 record overall and their 3-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the ACC. They are ranked inside the top 25 and they now have a real shot at the ACC Championship. They are off a tight 22-20 win over Wazzu in their last one and they have played in some tighter games lately, but Wazzu has looked better in recent weeks while Virginia has also seen some tougher opponents in the conference. Now they are going to see one of the worst teams in the ACC who has been a disaster all year. Meanwhile, North Carolina has looked terrible in their games this season with their 2-4 record overall and their 0-2 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the ACC. They are off a 21-18 loss to California in their last one and they almost came up with their first conference win there, but that has not been the case for most of the season. They have been getting rolled over by a lot of opponents this season and this isn't a great situation for them coming back from the West coast. Virginia has a lot more talent than UNC does on both sides of the ball and Virginia will be looking to beat up on a bad opponent after a really tight win at home last week. The best way to place a bet here is on Virginia to cover the spread in this game.
Virginia North Carolina Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 25, 2025 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Virginia 30 UNC 10.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Virginia Cavaliers: 19-10 ATS in all lined games. 8-3 ATS in road lined games. 13-6 ATS against conference opponents. 8-1 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less. 6-3 UNDER versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less.
North Carolina Tar Heels: 5-12 ATS in home lined games. 2-7 ATS as an underdog. 6-11 ATS against conference opponents. 3-7 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 7-2 UNDER as an underdog. 7-3 UNDER after playing their last game on the road. 8-4 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries
Virginia Cavaliers: M. Thomas (OG) Out - Foot. X. Brown (RB) Doubtful - Knee. G. Brosterhous (QB) Out - Foot. D. Twitty (TE) Out - Leg. T. Simmons (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Walker (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Lane Jr. (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Ward (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Wilson (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Jones (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Vaughn (RB) Questionable - Ankle. D. Wohlabaugh Jr. (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Ladd (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Greene Jr. (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Morris (CB) Out - Knee. M. Mills (OG) Out - Knee.
North Carolina Tar Heels: D. Stewart (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Rowe Jr. (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Miles (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Henry (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Hay (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Shivers (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“The football team made a decision at the half to come out and find a way to win the football game. And they did.” - Tony Elliott after his team’s win against WSU in their last game.
“Just came up a little bit short today, a couple inches I guess on the touchdown on the fumble.” - Bill Belichick after his team’s loss against Cal in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Virginia Cavaliers
WR Edrine, Jahmal
WR Harris, Trell
WR Ross, Cam
TE Twitty, Dakota
QB Morris, Chandler
RB Taylor, J'Mari
North Carolina Tar Heels
WR Culliver, Chris
WR Green, Javarius
WR Shipp, Jordan
TE Johnson, Jake
QB Lopez, Gio
RB June, Demon
Statistical Leaders
Virginia Cavaliers
Passing: Chandler Morris (1,607)
Rushing: J'Mari Taylor (512)
Receiving: Trell Harris (405)
Touchdowns: J'Mari Taylor (8)
North Carolina Tar Heels
Passing: Gio Lopez (597)
Rushing: Demon June (276)
Receiving: Jordan Shipp (253)
Touchdowns: Benjamin Hall (2)
Coaches:
Virginia Cavaliers: Tony Elliott (4th season)
North Carolina Tar Heels: Bill Belichick (1st season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
