Virginia Cavaliers vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/04/2025

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 4, 2025

Venue:  L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium, Louisville, KY

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Virginia +7, Louisville -7; Over/Under:  61.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Virginia +7, Louisville -7; Over/Under:  61.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Virginia +7, Louisville -7; Over/Under:  61.5 points

Virginia Cavaliers:  4-1 (2-0) (3rd place, ACC)

Louisville Cardinals:  4-0 (1-0) (2nd place, ACC)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Nelly’s Sports is on a HOT STREAK in college football on a 16-4-1 CFB RUN for +$11,630 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Virginia Cavaliers:  won their last game at home against the Florida State Seminoles 46-38 in overtime. 

Louisville Cardinals:  won their last game on the road against the Pittsburgh Panthers 34-27.

Virginia is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Florida State 46-38 in OT. Chandler Morris was the starting QB and he completed 26/35 passes for 229 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. J'Mari Taylor led the team in rushing yards with 99 and 1 TD. Jahmal Edrine led the receivers with 45 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Devin Neal led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 9 assisted tackles while Kam Robinson and Daniel Rickert each led the defense in sacks with 1. Ja'Son Prevard came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that one.

 

 

 

Louisville is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Pittsburgh 34-27. Miller Moss was the starting QB and he completed 33/51 passes for 339 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Duke Watson led the team in rushing yards with 47. Chris Bell led the receivers with 135 receiving yards on 10 receptions and 1 TD. Tayon Holloway led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Rene Konga led the defense in sacks with 1. TJ Quinn came away with 2 interceptions while Antonio Watts came away with 1 INT for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Virginia listed as a 7 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Virginia has looked good in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall and their 2-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the ACC. Their offense has looked great this season as they have been putting up a ton of points in their games and they are off a huge win at home over a ranked Florida State team in their last one. Virginia has a lot of talent on offense so they are going to put up a really good fight in every game they play this season and they have a ton of momentum from that win over FSU. Meanwhile, Louisville has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them near the top of the ACC too. They are off a big road win over Pittsburgh in their last one, but that was a tough game which they were fortunate to come away with a win. Pittsburgh had Louisville beat in that game, but they continually shot themselves in the foot and blew the game. Now they are going back home to face a good Virginia team that has a ton of momentum from their win last week and they have the talent on offense to compete with Louisville here. This is going to be a really close game between two good teams in the ACC that likely gets decided by a field goal. The best way to place a bet here is on Virginia to cover the spread in this game. 

Virginia Louisville Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 4, 2025 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Louisville 33 Virginia 30.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Virginia Cavaliers Louisville Cardinals prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.

Virginia Cavaliers: 18-9 ATS in all lined games. 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 10-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record. 8-1 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 8-2 OVER in road lined games. 10-2 OVER after playing a game at home.

Louisville Cardinals: 5-9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 2-5 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 23-35 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 200  rushing yards/game or less. 16-9 OVER as a favorite. 8-4 OVER off a win against a conference rival.

Virginia Cavaliers:  W. Unamba (OG) Questionable - Knee. T. Ladd (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Wohlabaugh Jr. (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. N. Vaughn (RB) Questionable - Ankle. A. Jones (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Wilson (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Ward (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Lane Jr. (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Simmons (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Walker (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Sipe (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Morris (CB) Out - Knee. M. Thomas (OG) Out - Foot. M. Mills (OG) Out - Knee.

Louisville Cardinals:  J. Wilder (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Gates (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Egan (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Brown (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Johnson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Clark (LB) Out - Ankle.

“That’s what Scott Stadium is supposed to be like. That’s what I envisioned when I decided to take the job here. It felt like a championship kind of game and that’s what we desire to be as a program. That’s where we want to go.” - Tony Elliott after his team’s win against FSU in their last game. 

“We got hit in the mouth a little, but we regrouped. And so I think that’s a sign of a team that understands what it’s going to take to win.” - Jeff Brohm after his team’s win against Pitt in their last game. 

WR Edrine, Jahmal

WR Harris, Trell

WR Ross, Cam

TE Twitty, Dakota

QB Morris, Chandler

RB Taylor, J'Mari

WR Hurry, TreyShun

WR Bell, Chris

WR Lacy, Caullin

TE Skinner, Jaleel

QB Moss, Miller

RB Brown, Isaac

FB Panariello, Jaxon

Passing: Chandler Morris (1,279)

Rushing: J'Mari Taylor (397)

Receiving: Trell Harris (366)

Touchdowns: J'Mari Taylor (7)

Passing: Miller Moss (1,029)

Rushing: Isaac Brown (268)

Receiving: Chris Bell (332)

Touchdowns: Isaac Brown (3)

Coaches:

Virginia Cavaliers: Tony Elliott (4th season)

Louisville Cardinals: Jeff Brohm (3rd season)