Virginia Cavaliers vs Duke Blue Devils Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 02/28/2026

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, February 28, 2026

Venue:  Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Virginia +10.5, Duke -10.5; Over/Under:  139.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Virginia +10.5, Duke -10.5; Over/Under:  139.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Virginia +10.5, Duke -10.5; Over/Under:  139.5 points

Virginia Cavaliers:  25-3 (13-2) (2nd place, ACC)

Duke Blue Devils:  26-2 (14-1) (1st place, ACC)

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Virginia Cavaliers:  5-0  last 5

Duke Blue Devils:  5-0  last 5

Virginia is entering this game with a 25-3 record overall, a 13-2 record in conference games, and they are 8-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the NC State Wolfpack in their last game. Thijs De Ridder led the team in points in that game with 19 while Sam Lewis was next on the team with 16. Dallin Hall and Chance Mallory each led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Dallin Hall led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 53.4% from the field, 46.2% from 3-point range, and 88.9% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 82.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 67.8 PPG against them. Virginia has an ATS record of 14-12-2 this season and their O/U record is 11-17.

Duke is entering this game with a 26-2 record overall, a 14-1 conference record, and they are 13-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in their last game. Cameron Boozer led the team in points in that game with 24 while Darren Harris was next on the team with 16. Cayden Boozer led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Cameron Boozer led the team in rebounds with 13. They were 45.8% from the field, 36.4% from 3-point range, and 89.5% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 83 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 62.9 PPG against them. Duke has an ATS record of 16-12 this season and their O/U record is 9-19.

The current betting odds have Virginia listed as a 10.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Virginia has looked really good in their games this season with their 25-3 record overall and their 13-2 conference record which has them right near the top of the ACC. They have been a great road team too with their 8-1 road record this year. Meanwhile, Duke has looked great in their games this season with their 26-2 record overall and their 14-1 conference record which has them right at the top of the ACC. They have looked great on their home court too with their 13-0 home record this season. Duke has been rolling in their games lately and they are ranked like the best team in the nation at the moment. They picked up that number 1 ranking with a win over Michigan and they have a ton of momentum on their side with 5 wins in a row now too. They are off a huge win over Notre Dame in their last one and they have been rolling over bad opponents all season, but that isn't what they are getting in this game and they have struggled against some other ranked opponents this season. They don't lose these games often, but they have played in some really tight wins and this is a really good Virginia team that is going to bring their best effort here against the best team in the nation right now, especially with a chance to win the ACC still on the table. Virginia has also been rolling in their games lately with 9 wins in a row now and they are off a 29 point win over a good NC State team in their last one. Virginia has the horses to keep themselves in this game and they are going to be fighting hard for the win all night. The best way to place a bet here is on Virginia to cover the spread in this game. 

Virginia Duke Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Saturday, February 28, 2026 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Duke 76 Virginia 71.

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Virginia Cavaliers: 1-4 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points. 3-6 ATS in a road game where the total is 130 to 139.5. 18-28 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game. 29-22 UNDER vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% of their attempts or more.

Duke Blue Devils: 36-19 ATS after a win by 15 points or more. 24-11 ATS after scoring 85 points or more. 25-14 ATS versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. 25-14 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game.

Virginia Cavaliers:  None.

Duke Blue Devils:  I. Ufochukwu (C) Out - Undisclosed. S. Wilkins (G-F) Out - Redshirt.

"Good game for us tonight. Our guys were ready to play. We weren't particularly great in the first half in terms of taking care of the ball - we weren't clean with the basketball. We had too many turnovers, and NC State just does that to you. They're really good at anticipating where you're going to pass the ball or getting into a gap and knocking it away -that happened multiple times throughout the night, and that can disrupt your offense, and that's the intention there certainly." - Ryan Odom after his team’s win against NC State in their last game. 

"I was proud of our maturity and our readiness. Obviously, Notre Dame, that's not their team. They've had really tough injuries but I was really proud of our approach, our defense. I thought we had some really good sequences of sharing and making the right play. This is a great thing for us. We get another conference win, their precious, and keep on growing." - Jon Scheyer after his team’s win against Notre Dame in their last game. 

T. De Ridder 

J. Grünloh 

D. Hall 

S. Lewis 

M. Thomas

C. Boozer 

I. Evans 

C. Foster 

P. Ngongba 

D. Sarr

PPG: Thijs De Ridder (16)

APG: Dallin Hall (4.2)

Reb/G: Thijs De Ridder (6.3)

PPG: Cameron Boozer (22.7)

APG: Cameron Boozer (4)

Reb/G: Cameron Boozer (10.1)

Coaches:

Virginia Cavaliers: Ryan Odom (1st season)

Duke Blue Devils: Jon Scheyer (4th season)