by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 4, 2025
Venue: Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Vandy +10.5, Alabama -10.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Vandy +10.5, Alabama -10.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Vandy +10.5, Alabama -10.5; Over/Under: 55.5 points
Season Record
Vanderbilt Commodores: 5-0 (1-0) (2nd place, SEC)
Alabama Crimson Tide: 3-1 (1-0) (6th place, SEC)
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Recent Form
Vanderbilt Commodores: won their last game at home against the Utah State Aggies 55-35.
Alabama Crimson Tide: won their last game on the road against the Georgia Bulldogs 24-21.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs Alabama Crimson Tide Preview and Analysis
Vanderbilt is entering this game with a 5-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Utah State 55-35. Diego Pavia was the starting QB and he completed 26/34 passes for 321 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Diego Pavia led the team in rushing yards with 79 and 1 TD. Junior Sherrill led the receivers with 91 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 3 TDs. Marlen Sewell led the defense in that game with 3 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while Linus Zunk led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Alabama is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Georgia 24-21. Ty Simpson was the starting QB and he completed 24/38 passes for 276 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jamarion Miller led the team in rushing yards with 46. Isaiah Horton led the receivers with 65 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Bray Hubbard led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 4 assisted tackles while LT Overton and Edric Hill each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama Prediction
The current betting odds have Alabama listed as a 10.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Alabama had a terrible start to the season with a road loss to Florida State and they looked like a team that was not ready to compete in the SEC this year. They have won 3 games in a row now though and they have a ton of momentum coming into this one after beating Georgia in their own house last week. Alabama has looked better every week and they are definitely going to bring their best effort for this game after losing to this same team last season. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has looked great in their games this season with their 5-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They are off a 55-35 win over Utah State in their last one and their offense has looked great all season. They have been rolling over the opponents they have faced so far, but they haven't really played any good teams yet and this is going to be their first real test. Alabama is riding high right now, but this won't be a let down game for them since they lost to Vandy last season. They are going to bring their best effort to get Vandy back here and as good as Vanderbilt's offense has been, their defense has been terrible with the number of points they have been giving up. The best way to place a bet here is on Alabama to cover the spread in this game.
Vanderbilt Alabama Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 4, 2025 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Alabama 38 Vanderbilt 24.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Vanderbilt Commodores: 16-24 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more. 22-29 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game. 14-20 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of +1 per game or better. 10-2 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 7-1 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%).
Alabama Crimson Tide: 11-4 ATS as a home favorite. 12-6 ATS against conference opponents. 9-2 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 10-4 OVER in home lined games. 8-2 OVER after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins.
Key Injuries
Vanderbilt Commodores: None.
Alabama Crimson Tide: Q. Russaw (LB) Out - Leg. J. Latham (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Hale (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Beaman (DL) Out - Lower Body.
Notable Quotes
“He’s (Pavia) a really good football player and today was his day. I’m happy for him.” - Clark Lea after his team’s win against USU in their last game.
“It’s another step in the right direction for our team. They’re already talking, you know, they’re not done with their improvement, and we’ve been really focusing on that ... not getting caught up in anything else other than what we could control. And I’m super proud of them for that.” - Kalen DeBoer after his team’s win against UGA in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Vanderbilt Commodores
WR Sherrill, Junior
WR Hudson, Trent
WR Richardson, Tre
TE Stowers, Eli
QB Pavia, Diego
RB Alexander, Sedrick
Alabama Crimson Tide
WR Horton, Isaiah
WR Bernard, Germie
WR Williams, Ryan
TE Lewis Jr., Danny
TE Cuevas, Josh
QB Simpson, Ty
RB Miller, Jam
Statistical Leaders
Vanderbilt Commodores
Passing: Diego Pavia (1,211)
Rushing: Diego Pavia (294)
Receiving: Eli Stowers (301)
Touchdowns: Sedrick Alexander (7)
Alabama Crimson Tide
Passing: Ty Simpson (1,138)
Rushing: Kevin Riley (150)
Receiving: Germie Bernard (310)
Touchdowns: Germie Bernard (5)
Coaches:
Vanderbilt Commodores: Clark Lea (5th season)
Alabama Crimson Tide: Kalen DeBoer (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
