by Rod Pearson
Monday, Sep 22, 2025
Game Time: 12:45 pm ET, Saturday, September 27, 2025
Venue: FirstBank Stadium, Nashville, TN
Where to Watch: SEC Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: USU +22.5, Vandy -22.5; Over/Under: 59.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: USU +22.5, Vandy -22.5; Over/Under: 59.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: USU +22.5, Vandy -22.5; Over/Under: 59.5 points
Season Record
Utah State Aggies: 3-1 (1-0) (2nd place, MWC)
Vanderbilt Commodores: 4-0 (1-0) (2nd place, SEC)
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Utah State Aggies: won their last game at home against the McNeese State Cowboys 48-7.
Vanderbilt Commodores: won their last game at home against the Georgia State Panthers 70-21.
Utah State Aggies vs Vanderbilt Commodores Preview and Analysis
Utah State is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against McNeese State 48-7. Bryson Barnes was the starting QB and he completed 19/27 passes for 293 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Bryson Barnes led the team in rushing yards with 128 and 2 TDs. Braden Pegan led the receivers with 95 receiving yards on 3 receptions. William Holmes led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while William Holmes led the defense in sacks with 2. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Vanderbilt is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Georgia State 70-21. Diego Pavia was the starting QB and he completed 18/24 passes for 245 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Diego Pavia led the team in rushing yards with 86 and 1 TD. Eli Stowers led the receivers with 73 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Jordan Matthews led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Miles Capers led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Utah State vs Vanderbilt Prediction
The current betting odds have Vanderbilt listed as a 22.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Vanderbilt has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They already have a good conference win on the road over South Carolina and now they are off a 70-21 win over Georgia State in their last one. Their defense hasn't looked great at times, but their offense has been rolling in every game this year and they have been blowing out these weaker opponents they have faced. Meanwhile, Utah State has looked really good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the MWC. They look like they can be a big threat in their own conference this season, but they still don't have the talent to match up with these SEC teams. They already played against a team from the SEC earlier this year, losing on the road to Texas A&M 44-22, and this game isn't going to be any different for a Vanderbilt team that has improved a lot from last season. Vandy hasn't been taking their foot off the gas in games either so they aren't going to coast once they get out to a big lead here. The best way to place a bet here is on Vanderbilt to cover the spread in this game.
Utah State Vanderbilt Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 27, 2025 (12:45 pm ET start time) is Vanderbilt 56 Utah State 21.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Utah State Aggies: 3-9 ATS in road lined games. 4-9 ATS after playing a game at home. 1-6 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more. 20-8 OVER in all lined games. 13-4 OVER as an underdog. 9-4 OVER when the total is between 56.5 and 63.
Vanderbilt Commodores: 41-30 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%). 8-3 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more. 18-10 OVER in all lined games. 10-4 OVER in home lined games. 10-2 OVER in non-conference games.
Key Injuries
Utah State Aggies: C. Thompson Jr. (WR) Out - Shoulder. C. Whittaker (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Larry (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Kofe (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Pele (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Jury (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Keele (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Olsen (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Ebunoha (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Migao (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Larsen (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Andersen (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Mendenhall (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Tuatagaloa (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Taulapapa (RB) Out - Undisclosed. D. Sprague (P) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Smith (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Faiivae (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Barnes (LB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Baird (S) Out - Undisclosed. S. Alofipo (LB) Out - Undisclosed. D. Starling (WR) Out - Undisclosed.
Vanderbilt Commodores: Y. Ouattara (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“Our quarterback, Bryson (Barnes) – the resolve, the physicality, the decision making, the toughness – he’s the leader of our team and our team is taking on his identity.” - Bronco Mendenhall after his team’s win against McNeese State in their last game.
“I was proud of the effort. We played the right way and the game honors toughness. I’ve got a ton of respect for Georgia State and we did not forget that game from a year ago and how painful of a lesson that was. Tonight was our night.” - Clark Lea after his team’s win against GA State in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Utah State Aggies
WR Thompson Jr., Corey
WR Starling, Demick
WR Boyd, Brady
TE Lane, Broc
QB Barnes, Bryson
RB Jacobs, Javen
Vanderbilt Commodores
WR Sherrill, Junior
WR Hudson, Trent
WR Richardson, Tre
TE Stowers, Eli
QB Pavia, Diego
RB Alexander, Sedrick
Statistical Leaders
Utah State Aggies
Passing: Bryson Barnes (982)
Rushing: Miles Davis (310)
Receiving: Braden Pegan (303)
Touchdowns: Bryson Barnes (6)
Vanderbilt Commodores
Passing: Diego Pavia (890)
Rushing: Diego Pavia (215)
Receiving: Eli Stowers (233)
Touchdowns: Sedrick Alexander (7)
Coaches:
Utah State Aggies: Bronco Mendenhall (1st season)
Vanderbilt Commodores: Clark Lea (5th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
