USC Trojans vs Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/10/2026

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 10, 2026

Venue:  West Shore Home Field at Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

Where to Watch:  NBC

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  USC +1.5, Penn State -1.5; Over/Under:  54.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  USC +1.5, Penn State -1.5; Over/Under:  54.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  USC +1.5, Penn State -1.5; Over/Under:  54.5 points

USC Trojans:  5-1 (2-1) (8th place, Big Ten)

Penn State Nittany Lions:  3-2 (0-2) (12th place, Big Ten)

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USC Trojans:  won their last game at home against the Washington Huskies 25-21.

Penn State Nittany Lions:  lost their last game on the road against the Northwestern Wildcats 34-13.

USC is entering this game with a 5-1 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their conference games too. They are 4-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Washington 25-21. Jayden Maiava was the starting QB and he completed 21/34 passes for 245 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. King Miller led the team in rushing yards with 81. Zach Williams led the receivers with 78 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Christian Pierce led the defense in that game with 9 tackles while Kameryn Crawford, Ta'Mere Robinson, Alex Graham, Luke Wafle, and Elijah Newby each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Penn State is entering this game with a 3-2 record overall and they have a 0-2 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Northwestern 34-13. Rocco Becht was the starting QB and he completed 26/41 passes for 243 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Carson Hansen led the team in rushing yards with 19 and 1 TD. Chase Sowell led the receivers with 68 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Kooper Ebel and Tony Rojas each led the defense in that game with 11 tackles while Tony Rojas led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have USC listed as a 1.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. USC has looked good in their games this season with their 5-1 record overall and their 2-1 conference record which has them in the top half of the Big Ten. They have been a good road team too with their 1-0 road record this year. Meanwhile, Penn State hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 3-2 record overall and their 0-2 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the Big Ten. They have looked better on their home field though with their 2-1 home record this season. Penn State hasn't looked good in a lot of their games this season and this program is turning into a disaster real quick. They were one of the first teams to fire their head coach last season and managed to be one of the last teams to hire a new one. They never really looked great in their 3 wins against weaker opponents to start the season and now they are in a complete spiral after losing 2 games in a row. They got upset at home after blowing a 17-0 lead against Wisconsin and now they are off a 34-13 beat down against Northwestern. They are coming back home now with 1 last chance to really save the season, but there isn't any reason to believe that they can pick up the pieces now. USC hasn't looked great lately either, coming off a tight 25-21 win over Washington after losing at home to Oregon 41-27 the week before, but their loss is at least still respectable. USC still has everything in front of them this year and this is a game that Lincoln Riley can't lose. USC hasn't looked great defensively, but their offense has looked like one of the best in the nation and that Penn State offense won't be able to do enough to keep up here. The best way to place a bet here is on USC to cover the spread in this game. 

USC Penn State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 10, 2026 (7:30 pm ET start time) is USC 45 Penn State 20.

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USC Trojans: 19-26 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 17-26 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less. 19-34 ATS after a win by 6 or less points. 33-24 UNDER as a road underdog. 16-10 UNDER vs. good passing defenses - allowing 150 or less passing yards/game.

Penn State Nittany Lions: 24-17 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 35-26 ATS in a home game where the total is between 49.5 and 56. 25-17 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 5.9 yards/play or more. 25-15 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses. 19-13 UNDER vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 8 or more passing yards/att.

USC Trojans:  C. Simms (WR) Out - Knee. T. Mosley (WR) Doubtful - Knee. M. Bowman (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Tezeno (WR) Questionable - Foot. S. Huard (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Ison (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Redeaux (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Reddick (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. O'Connor (OG) Out - Undisclosed.

Penn State Nittany Lions:  C. Rosa (K) Out - Undisclosed. D. Sheffey (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Kortovich (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Howard (WR) Out - Undisclosed. M. Granville (DL) Out - Undisclosed.

“I felt like for a long period of the game, we were really outplaying them. But when you make some of those mistakes and you just let them keep hanging around ... with penalty after penalty, we've clearly got to do a way better job on that. A lot to clean up, (but) a lot to be excited about. We had to dig deep for this one. There's no question, especially with as sloppy as we played, especially offensively.” - Lincoln Riley after his team’s win against Washington in their last game. 

“The reality of it is, we lack an identity. We lack who we want to be and where we need to be.” - Matt Campbell after his team’s loss against Northwestern in their last game. 

WR Hines, Tanook

WR Dixon-Wyatt, Kayden

WR Williams, Zacharyus

TE Bowman, Mark

QB Maiava, Jayden

RB Miller, King

WR Sowell, Chase

WR Eskildsen, Brett

WR Robinson, Zay

TE Rappleyea, Andrew

TE Burkle, Gabe

QB Becht, Rocco

RB Hansen, Carson

Passing: Jayden Maiava (1,744)

Rushing: King Miller (493)

Receiving: Kayden Dixon-Wyatt (372)

Touchdowns: Trent Mosley (4)

Passing: Rocco Becht (1,108)

Rushing: James Peoples (212)

Receiving: Koby Howard (344)

Touchdowns: Benjamin Brahmer (3)

Coaches:

USC Trojans: Lincoln Riley (5th season)

Penn State Nittany Lions: Matt Campbell (1st season)