USC Trojans vs Illinois Fighting Illini Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/27/2025

Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 27, 2025

Venue:  University of Illinois Gies Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  USC -6.5, Illinois +6.5; Over/Under:  59.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  USC -6.5, Illinois +6.5; Over/Under:  59.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  USC -6.5, Illinois +6.5; Over/Under:  59.5 points

USC Trojans:  3-0 (1-0) (3rd place, Big Ten)

Illinois Fighting Illini:  3-1 (0-1) (13th place, Big Ten)

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USC Trojans:  won their last game at home against the Michigan State Spartans 45-31.

Illinois Fighting Illini:  lost their last game on the road against the Indiana Hoosiers 63-10.

USC is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 2-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Michigan State 45-31. Jayden Maiava was the starting QB and he completed 20/26 passes for 234 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Waymond Jordan led the team in rushing yards with 157. Makai Lemon led the receivers with 127 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 1 TD. Eric Gentry led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Braylan Shelby led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Illinois is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Indiana 63-10. Luke Altmyer was the starting QB and he completed 14/22 passes for 146 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Kaden Feagin led the team in rushing yards with 18. Collin Dixon led the receivers with 86 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Matthew Bailey led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Joe Barna and Leon Lowery each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Illinois listed as a 6.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Illinois has looked good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall, but their 0-1 conference record has them lower in the Big Ten now. They looked great in their first 3 games of the season and even had a big road win over Duke in a game which they won in blow out fashion, but now they are off a terrible conference loss in their last one and that loss really set them back. They got beaten down on the road by Indiana 63-10 and didn't even look like they belonged on the same field. They are still a ranked team though and they still have a lot of talent as they are much better than how they looked in that game so they aren't going to take that loss lightly and will be looking to bounce back here at home. Meanwhile, USC has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 2-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big Ten. They are off a big 45-31 win over Michigan State in their last one and they have a road win in the conference under their belt too, but their road win came against Purdue who is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten so that wasn't much of a test for them. They looked great against Michigan State last week, but that game was at home and they still gave up 31 points as their defense hasn't looked great this year. The offense has been rolling in their games, but Illinois still has a much better defense than what they showed last week and they are going to be playing this game with a point to prove now. Illinois desperately needs this win a lot more after their showing last week and they have the talent to keep this a close game at home with a team traveling from the West who hasn't really been tested yet. The best way to place a bet here is on Illinois to cover the spread in this game. 

USC Illinois Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 27, 2025 (12:00 pm ET start time) is USC 34 Illinois 30.

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USC Trojans: 1-8 ATS as a road favorite. 1-9 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 7-13 ATS against conference opponents. 4-9 ATS after scoring 37 points or more last game. 28-13 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63.

Illinois Fighting Illini: 15-7 ATS in all lined games. 6-3 ATS in home lined games. 7-2 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less. 8-2 UNDER in home lined games. 5-1 UNDER versus good rushing defenses - allowing 3.25 rushing yards/carry or less.

USC Trojans:  A. Graham (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. P. Brown (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Jackson (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Lane (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Johnson (CB) Out - Knee. C. Chittenden (K) Out - Undisclosed.

Illinois Fighting Illini:  X. Scott (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Knapik (OG) Questionable - Knee. L. Farrell (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Clawson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Clarke (CB) Questionable - Hamstring. D. Brown (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Abney (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Cox (CB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Forster (RB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Hirdes (OG) Out - Knee. G. Smith (TE) Out - Undisclosed.

“That was a game that had some unique twists and turns. I thought we were controlling the game, (and then) obviously we had a couple of errors there in the third quarter with the penalties ... and the turnover that allowed them to come back and capture some momentum. But I thought our team responded and separated back in a really good way. A lot to learn from. A lot that's got to continue to get better, but if you're learning lessons as you win, it's hard not to be excited.” - Lincoln Riley after his team’s win against MSU in their last game. 

“We didn’t respond to any adversity. It started with the blocked punt and never really got anything on offense or defense. Embarrassing and at a loss for words.” - Bret Bielema after his team’s loss against Indiana in their last game. 

WR Lane, Ja'Kobi

WR Hines, Tanook

WR Lemon, Makai

TE McRee, Lake

QB Maiava, Jayden

RB Jordan, Waymond

WR Clement, Hudson

WR Elzy, Malik

WR Dixon, Collin

TE Arkin, Tanner

TE Stoffel, Davin

QB Altmyer, Luke

RB Laughery, Aidan

Passing: Jayden Maiava (1,223)

Rushing: Waymond Jordan (443)

Receiving: Makai Lemon (438)

Touchdowns: Jayden Maiava (4)

Passing: Luke Altmyer (855)

Rushing: Kaden Feagin (240)

Receiving: Hank Beatty (302)

Touchdowns: Kaden Feagin (3)

Coaches:

USC Trojans: Lincoln Riley (4th season)

Illinois Fighting Illini: Bret Bielema (5th season)