UMass Minutemen vs Missouri Tigers Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/27/2025

Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 27, 2025

Venue:  Faurot Field at Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO

Where to Watch:  ESPNU

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  UMass +44.5, Mizzou -44.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  UMass +45, Mizzou -45; Over/Under:  56.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  UMass +44.5, Mizzou -44.5; Over/Under:  56.5 points

UMass Minutemen:  0-3 (0-0) (13th place, MAC)

Missouri Tigers:  4-0 (1-0) (3rd place, SEC)

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UMass Minutemen:  lost their last game on the road against the Iowa Hawkeyes 47-7.

Missouri Tigers:  won their last game at home against the South Carolina Gamecocks 29-20.

UMass is entering this game with a 0-3 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 0-2 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Iowa 47-7. Grant Jordan was the starting QB and he completed 9/14 passes for 37 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Rocko Griffin led the team in rushing yards with 28. Jacquon Gibson led the receivers with 37 receiving yards on 5 receptions. Derrieon Craig and Keith Sarkodieh each led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Timmy Hinspeter and Marques White each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Missouri is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 4-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against South Carolina 29-20. Beau Pribula was the starting QB and he completed 16/27 passes for 171 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. Ahmad Hardy led the team in rushing yards with 138 and 1 TD. Marquis Johnson led the receivers with 80 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Josiah Trotter led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Nicholas Rodriguez, Zion Young, Sterling Webb, and Khalil Jacobs each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Missouri listed as a 44.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Missouri has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them higher up in the SEC. They are off a 29-20 win over South Carolina in their last one and they have been rolling over a lot of teams this year. They have a lot of talent on offense and they have been putting up a ton of points in their games. Meanwhile, UMass has looked terrible in their games this season with their 0-3 record overall which has them right at the bottom of their new conference. They are off a 47-7 loss against Iowa in their last one and they have looked terrible in every game this season. Their defense has been terrible, giving up a ton of points in their 3 games, and their offense hasn't looked good against some of the weaker opponents they have faced. They have also been blown out in 2 of their games and their other loss was against a team from the FCS. UMass is in their 1st season of being in the MAC, but this is still the same old team that is going to struggle in every game they play. They don't have the talent to keep up with a team like Mizzou and will be lucky to even get on the board here. The best way to place a bet here is on Missouri to cover the spread in this game. 

UMass Missouri Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 27, 2025 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Missouri 63 UMass 3.

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UMass Minutemen: 16-24 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 10-18 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 4-9 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing 310 yards/game or less. 18-8 OVER in all lined games. 9-4 OVER as a road underdog.

Missouri Tigers: 21-9 ATS in all lined games. 14-6 ATS as a favorite. 10-3 ATS in non-conference games. 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record. 7-1 OVER after a 2 game home stand. 11-5 OVER off a home win.

UMass Minutemen:  B. Rose (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. McConnachie (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Daniel (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Watkins-Hunter (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Taylor (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Franks (OG) Out - Undisclosed. J. Nobles (DL) Out - Undisclosed.

Missouri Tigers:  L. Reichert (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Horn (QB) Out - Leg. C. Green (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Craig (K) Out - Undisclosed.

“I expected them to throw to get him ready for Big Ten play. I know from probably the way he’s played the first two weeks they weren’t very happy with that. So they needed to get him going.” - Joe Harasymiak after his team’s loss against Iowa in their last game. 

“That was a heck of a battle. You could tell they were ticked off about last week's performance and came in and fought. Really proud of our team for not really flinching. We just kept hammering away.” - Eli Drinkwitz after his team’s win against South Carolina in their last game. 

WR Gibson, Jacquon

WR McConnachie, Jake

WR Harding, T.Y.

TE Adkins, Reece

QB Rose, Brandon

RB Griffin, Rocko

WR Johnson, Marquis

WR Manning, Joshua

WR Coleman Jr., Kevin

TE Norfleet, Brett

QB Pribula, Beau

RB Hardy, Ahmad

Passing: Grant Jordan (248)

Rushing: Rocko Griffin (142)

Receiving: Jacquon Gibson (258)

Touchdowns: Grant Jordan (2)

Passing: Beau Pribula (962)

Rushing: Ahmad Hardy (600)

Receiving: Kevin Coleman Jr. (278)

Touchdowns: Ahmad Hardy (6)

Coaches:

UMass Minutemen: Joe Harasymiak (1st season)

Missouri Tigers: Eli Drinkwitz (6th season)