by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Nov 12, 2025
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, November 15, 2025
Venue: Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: UCF +23.5, TTU -23.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: UCF +23.5, TTU -23.5; Over/Under: 48 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: UCF +24, TTU -24; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
UCF Knights: 4-5 (1-5) (14th place, Big 12)
Texas Tech Red Raiders: 9-1 (6-1) (1st place, Big 12)
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Recent Form
UCF Knights: lost their last game at home against the Houston Cougars 30-27.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: won their last game at home against the BYU Cougars 29-7.
UCF Knights vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview and Analysis
Central Florida is entering this game with a 4-5 record overall and they have a 1-5 record in their conference games too. They are 4-2 in their home games, 0-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Houston 30-27. Tayven Jackson was the starting QB and he completed 15/29 passes for 136 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Jaden Nixon led the team in rushing yards with 62 and 1 TD. Dylan Wade led the receivers with 80 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Cole Kozlowski led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Malachi Lawrence and Jeffson Lafontant each led the defense in sacks with 1. Phillip Dunnam came away with 3 interceptions for them in that one.
Texas Tech is entering this game with a 9-1 record overall and they have a 6-1 record in their conference games too. They are 6-0 in their home games, 3-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against BYU 29-7. Behren Morton was the starting QB and he completed 17/32 passes for 219 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Cameron Dickey led the team in rushing yards with 121 and 1 TD. Reggie Virgil led the receivers with 54 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Jacob Rodriguez led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Lee Hunter led the defense in sacks with 1. Jacob Rodriguez came away with the only interception for them in that one.
UCF vs Texas Tech Prediction
The current betting odds have Texas Tech listed as a 23.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas Tech has looked great in their games this season with their 9-1 record overall and their 6-1 conference record which has them right at the top of the Big 12. They are the highest ranked Big 12 team, currently sitting in the top 10, and they have looked great on their home field this year with their 6-0 home record. Meanwhile, UCF hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 4-5 record overall and their 1-5 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the Big 12. They have struggled in the conference all season as they are one of the worst teams and they haven't been a good road team either with their 0-3 road record. They have looked better in their games lately, even coming off a close 3 point loss to Houston in their last one, but they have also looked a lot better in their home games. Their defense hasn't looked good when challenged by a decent offense and Texas Tech has one of the best offenses in the entire country. UCF's offense has also been really up and down from week to week and now they are playing the best defense they are going to see all year. Texas Tech is focused on winning a National Championship this season so look for them to roll over one of the worst teams in their own conference. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas Tech to cover the spread in this game.
UCF Texas Tech Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 15, 2025 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Texas Tech 56 UCF 10.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
UCF Knights: 5-9 ATS in road lined games. 5-10 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 2-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 8-1 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more. 7-4 UNDER vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: 22-13 ATS in all lined games. 12-3 ATS as a home favorite. 16-8 ATS against conference opponents. 9-4 ATS after a win by 17 or more points. 9-5 UNDER off a home win. 6-3 UNDER off a home win by 17 points or more.
Key Injuries
UCF Knights: M. Montgomery (RB) Questionable - Shoulder. J. Williams (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Wadsworth (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Fancher (QB) Questionable - Ribs. S. Gage (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Bridgewater (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Piening (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Lockett (DL) Out - Undisclosed. T. Swint (RB) Out - Knee. J. Royes (OG) Out - Undisclosed. R. Farmer (WR) Out - Undisclosed.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: H. Zambrano (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. West (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Stone (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. W. Hammond (QB) Out - Knee. S. Gill-Howard (DL) Out - Leg. D. Singleton (DL) Out - Undisclosed. Q. Joyner (RB) Out - Knee. M. Dingle Jr. (S) Out - Leg.
Notable Quotes
"We're kind of waiting to get some update on a few guys. Yeah, it was, man, I admire our guys' fight the other night and a lot of guys got called on duty that wouldn't normally be in that situation. That's football. We seem to have a rash of more of them than you would typically want or have in a typical year, but that's football." - Scott Frost on his team’s injuries.
“I told the team we have another gear. We can play better.” - Joey McGuire after his team’s win against BYU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
UCF Knights
WR Burke, Marcus
WR Black, DJ
WR Thomas Jr., Duane
TE Wade, Dylan
QB Jackson, Tayven
RB Montgomery, Myles
Texas Tech Red Raiders
WR Virgil, Reggie
WR Douglas, Caleb
WR Eakin, Coy
TE Miller II, Johncarlos
QB Morton, Behren
RB Dickey, Cameron
Statistical Leaders
UCF Knights
Passing: Tayven Jackson (1,470)
Rushing: Myles Montgomery (595)
Receiving: Duane Thomas Jr. (402)
Touchdowns: Jaden Nixon (7)
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Passing: Behren Morton (1,969)
Rushing: Cameron Dickey (867)
Receiving: Caleb Douglas (606)
Touchdowns: Cameron Dickey (12)
Coaches:
UCF Knights: Scott Frost (1st season)
Texas Tech Red Raiders: Joey McGuire (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
