Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2026

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Saturday, July 4, 2026

Venue:  T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays +135, Mariners -163; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays +135, Mariners -165; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays +135, Mariners -160; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Toronto Blue Jays:  41-46 (3rd place, AL East)

Seattle Mariners:  45-43 (2nd place, AL West)

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Toronto Blue Jays:  3-7 last 10

Seattle Mariners:  6-4 last 10

The Blue Jays are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the New York Mets 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 41-46 record overall and have a road record of 17-21. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mariners on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 23rd in the MLB with a .700 OPS. Dylan Cease is their starting pitcher on Friday while Shane Bieber is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 0-0 with a 6.00 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 4 BB with 4 SO on 5 hits through 5.1 IP against the Texas Rangers.

The Mariners are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Los Angeles Angels 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 45-43 record overall and have a home record of 25-19. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Blue Jays on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 25th in the MLB with a .694 OPS. Luis Castillo is their starting pitcher on Friday while Logan Gilbert is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 6-5 with a 3.42 ERA this season. His team won 6 of their last 7 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 4 earned runs, 0 homers, and 0 walks with 7 strikeouts on 7 hits through 7 innings pitched against the Cleveland Guardians.

The current betting odds have the Mariners listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Blue Jays haven't looked good in their games this season with their 41-46 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East. They haven't been a great road team either with their 17-21 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Mariners have looked good in their games this season with their 45-43 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL West. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 25-19 home record this season. The Blue Jays haven't looked good lately as they are 3-7 in their last 10 games while the Mariners are 6-4 in their last 10 and just swept the Angels in their last series. The Mariners are going with Gilbert in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 6-5 with a 3.42 ERA and the team has had a ton of success with him lately. They have won 6 of their last 7 games with him starting and even though he gave up 4 earned runs in his last start, that hasn't been a common theme for him so look for him to bounce back at home. The Blue Jays are going with Bieber in this one and he hasn't looked good this year. He is 0-0 with a 6.00 ERA and he has missed a lot of the season due to injury. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't really been a common theme for him this year and the team has also lost 2 games in a row now with him starting. The Mariners are in a really tight race for 1st place in their division, so look for them to take advantage of this better pitching matchup and use this series against a slumping Blue Jays team to get ahead in the AL West. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mariners to win this game. 

Blue Jays Mariners Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 4, 2026 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Mariners 6 Blue Jays 3.

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Toronto Blue Jays: 219-210 (-5.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 165-162 (-10.3 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 72-68 (-10.8 units) on the moneyline vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season. 7-2 UNDER on the road vs. AL teams scoring 4.4 or less runs/game on the season. 

Seattle Mariners: 128-85 (+16.1 units) on the moneyline in home games. 109-69 (+10.7 units) on the moneyline as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 127-94 (+13.7 units) on the moneyline when the total is 7 to 7.5. 19-13 UNDER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better.

Toronto Blue Jays:  J. Sanchez (RF) Ten Day IL - Ankle. M. Scherzer (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. J. Mantiply (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. L. Sosa (2B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. J. Berrios (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Barger (RF) Ten Day IL - Elbow. C. Ponce (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. A. Santander (RF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. Y. Garcia (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Francis (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Seattle Mariners:  V. Robles (RF) Day To Day - Forearm. J. Rodriguez (CF) Day To Day - Head. R. Refsnyder (DH) Ten Day IL - Knee. W. Wilson (3B) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. M. Brash (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. C. Criswell (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. B. Donovan (3B) Ten Day IL - Groin. C. Vargas (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. L. Evans (SP) Sixty Day IL - Arm.

“That was great, man. He’s seen some tough pitching this series, both starters and relievers. He stayed on that fastball. I think he knew he got it even more so than us, based on his reaction. He’s been doing that. Big swing for us, big swing for him.” - John Schneider after his team’s win against the Mets in their game on Wednesday. 

“I would have preferred about a 120 [mph] line drive. I feel like they didn't really earn those two hits. But it's all right. They fall sometimes.” - Bryce Miller after their win against the LA Angels in their game on Thursday.

Nathan Lukes (L) RF

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 1B

Kazuma Okamoto (R) 3B

Daulton Varsho (L) CF

Alejandro Kirk (R) C

Yohendrick Piñango (L) LF

Ernie Clement (R) 2B

Sean Keys (L) DH

Andrés Giménez (L) SS

J.P. Crawford (L) 3B

Julio Rodríguez (R) CF

Dominic Canzone (L) DH

Randy Arozarena (R) LF

Josh Naylor (L) 1B

Cal Raleigh (S) C

Luke Raley (L) RF

Cole Young (L) 2B

Colt Emerson (L) SS

Batting Average:  Luis Urías (.400)

Hits:  Ernie Clement (96)

Home Runs:  Kazuma Okamoto (19)

RBI:  Kazuma Okamoto (54)

Stolen Bases:  Andrés Giménez (10)

Wins:  Jeff Hoffman (5)

Saves:  Louis Varland (17)

ERA:  Simeon Woods Richardson (0.00)

Batting Average:  Randy Arozarena (.284)

Hits:  Julio Rodríguez (89)

Home Runs:  Luke Raley (14)

RBI:  Cole Young (41)

Stolen Bases:  Randy Arozarena (19)

Wins:  George Kirby (7)

Saves:  Andrés Muñoz (16)

ERA:  Matt Brash (0.54)

Managers:

Toronto Blue Jays: John Schneider (5th season)

Seattle Mariners: Dan Wilson (3rd season)