Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/11/2026

Game Time: 8:40 pm ET, Saturday, July 11, 2026

Venue:  Petco Park, San Diego, CA

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays +104, Padres -126; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays +105, Padres -125; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Blue Jays +105, Padres -125; Over/Under:  8 runs

Toronto Blue Jays:  44-49 (3rd place, AL East)

San Diego Padres:  46-47 (3rd place, NL West)

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Toronto Blue Jays:  5-5 last 10

San Diego Padres:  3-7 last 10

The Blue Jays are entering this series off a win and won their 3-game series against the San Francisco Giants 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 44-49 record overall and have a road record of 20-24. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Padres on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .688 OPS. Shane Bieber is their starting pitcher on Friday while Trey Yesavage is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 4-4 with a 3.31 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 2 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 7 SO on 3 hits through 6 IP against the Seattle Mariners.

The Padres are entering this series off a loss and split their 4-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 46-47 record overall and have a home record of 25-23. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Blue Jays on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 30th in the MLB with a .671 OPS. JP Sears is their starting pitcher on Friday while Walker Buehler is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 5-5 with a 5.07 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 7 earned runs, 2 homers, and 1 walk with 4 strikeouts on 7 hits through 5 innings pitched against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The current betting odds have the Blue Jays listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Padres haven't looked great in their games this season with their 46-47 record overall which has them right in the middle of the NL West. They have looked a lot better in their own ballpark though with their 25-23 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays haven't looked great in their games this season with their 44-49 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East. They haven't been a good road team either with their 20-24 road record this year. The Blue Jays are only 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they have looked a lot better than the Padres have lately as the Padres are only 3-7 in their last 10 games. The Padres also have one of the worst offenses in MLB this year and the Blue Jays are going to be able to take advantage of this pitching matchup. Yesavage is on the mound for the Blue Jays in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 4-4 with a 3.31 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs this season. His team has lost 2 of their last 3 games with him starting, but he only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start and that has been a common theme for him. The Padres are going with Buehler in this one and he hasn't looked good this year. He is 5-5 with a 5.05 ERA and he has been giving up quite a few runs in his starts. He is coming off a terrible start in which he gave up 7 earned runs and the team has lost 2 games in a row now with him starting too. The Blue Jays haven't had a great offense this season, but lately they have looked a lot better and they still have the edge on offense with how bad the Padres have been. The best way to place a bet here is on the Blue Jays to win this game. 

Blue Jays Padres Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 11, 2026 (8:40 pm ET start time) is Blue Jays 6 Padres 1.

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Toronto Blue Jays: 222-213 (-5.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 100-114 (-5 units) on the moneyline in road games. 48-50 (-7.9 units) on the moneyline vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. 35-25 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose lasts less than 5 innings per start.

San Diego Padres: 235-193 (+21 units) on the moneyline in all games. 125-89 (+8.4 units) on the moneyline in home games. 171-139 (+15.7 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 27-18 UNDER when the money line is +125 to -125.

Toronto Blue Jays:  J. Sanchez (RF) Ten Day IL - Ankle. M. Scherzer (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. J. Mantiply (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. L. Sosa (2B) Ten Day IL - Wrist. J. Berrios (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Barger (RF) Ten Day IL - Elbow. C. Ponce (SP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. A. Santander (RF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. Y. Garcia (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Francis (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

San Diego Padres:  S. Taylor (LF) Ten Day IL - Oblique. F. Fermin (C) Ten Day IL - Head. R. Vasquez (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Ankle. J. Adam (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. D. Morgan (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. L. Giolito (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Estrada (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. R. Laureano (LF) Sixty Day IL - Hip. N. Pivetta (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. M. Waldron (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Arm. B. Hoeing (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Musgrove (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“I’m a fan of baseball. If a guy has a chance to throw a no-hitter, you let him do it, and I think you make the adjustments after that. Dylan, he’s done it before, and he’s really durable. He’s in the category where you can be pretty aggressive with it. It’s not very often you get to see that, so if I can let a player have that opportunity, I’m going to do it every single time.” - John Schneider after his team’s win against the Giants in their game on Wednesday. 

“I’m going to believe, and I’m going to push these guys. And these guys are going to push each other. You can’t make a winning streak happen. All you can do is put in the work every day.” - Craig Stammen after his team’s loss against the Diamondbacks in their game on Thursday.

Ernie Clement (R) 2B

Nathan Lukes (L) RF

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 1B

George Springer (R) DH

Daulton Varsho (L) CF

Kazuma Okamoto (R) 3B

Alejandro Kirk (R) C

Jonatan Clase (S) LF

Andrés Giménez (L) SS

Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RF

Jackson Merrill (L) CF

Xander Bogaerts (R) SS

Manny Machado (R) 3B

Gavin Sheets (L) LF

Jake Cronenworth (L) 1B

Luis Campusano (R) C

Miguel Andujar (R) DH

Sung-Mun Song (L) 2B

Batting Average:  Luis Urías (.316)

Hits:  Ernie Clement (102)

Home Runs:  Kazuma Okamoto (21)

RBI:  Kazuma Okamoto (59)

Stolen Bases:  Andrés Giménez (10)

Wins:  Dylan Cease (6)

Saves:  Louis Varland (18)

ERA:  Simeon Woods Richardson (0.00)

Batting Average:  Samad Taylor (.330)

Hits:  Fernando Tatis (102)

Home Runs:  Manny Machado (19)

RBI:  Manny Machado (52)

Stolen Bases:  Fernando Tatis (23)

Wins:  Randy Vásquez (6)

Saves:  Mason Miller (23)

ERA:  Jhony Brito (0.00)

Managers:

Toronto Blue Jays: John Schneider (5th season)

San Diego Padres: Craig Stammen (1st season)