by Rod Pearson
Monday, Dec 15, 2025
Game Time: 2:00 pm ET, Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Venue: FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, FL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Toledo +8.5, Louisville -8.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Toledo +8.5, Louisville -8.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Toledo +8.5, Louisville -8.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Season Record
Toledo Rockets: 8-4 (6-2) (4th place, MAC)
Louisville Cardinals: 8-4 (4-4) (10th place, ACC)
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Toledo Rockets: won their last game on the road against the Central Michigan Chippewas 21-3.
Louisville Cardinals: won their last game at home against the Kentucky Wildcats 41-0.
Toledo Rockets vs Louisville Cardinals Preview and Analysis
Toledo is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 6-2 record in their conference games too. They are 6-0 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, and they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Central Michigan 21-3. Tucker Gleason was the starting QB and he completed 9/17 passes for 98 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Chip Trayanum led the team in rushing yards with 94 and 1 TD. Junior Vandeross III led the receivers with 71 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Avery Smith led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while K'Von Sherman led the defense in sacks with 2. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Louisville is entering this game with an 8-4 record overall and they have a 4-4 record in their conference games too. They are 5-3 in their home games, 3-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at a neutral site for this game. They won their last game against Kentucky 41-0. Miller Moss was the starting QB and he completed 12/20 passes for 182 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Braxton Jennings led the team in rushing yards with 113. Jacob Stewart led the receivers with 43 receiving yards on 1 reception and 1 TD. TJ Quinn led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while TJ Quinn and Clev Lubin each led the defense in sacks with 2. Tayon Holloway came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that one.
Toledo vs Louisville Prediction
The current betting odds have Louisville listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Louisville has looked good in their games this season with their 8-4 record overall, but their 4-4 conference record had them right in the middle of the ACC. They haven't played in a neutral site game this season so this will be their first of the year, playing in the Boca Raton Bowl. Meanwhile, Toledo has looked good in their games this season with their 8-4 record overall and their 6-2 conference record which had them right near the top of the MAC. This is also going to be their first neutral site game of the season. Toledo had another good year in the MAC, ending the regular season with a road win over CMU, but they missed out on the MAC Championship. Now they aren't in a great situation here with their head coach leaving them for the UConn job. Louisville didn't have a great season in the ACC and that was a bit of a disappointment since the ACC wasn't strong this year, a 5 loss Duke team being the ACC Champions, but they ended the regular season with a 41-0 win over Kentucky and they still have their head coach to lead them in this game. Brohm has been building a good program over the last few years as they have been a force in the ACC, and even though they couldn't do much this season, they have been great in non-conference games and will look to end the year with another bowl win. Toledo already doesn't have the talent that Louisville has on their team, and their head coach leaving for another job isn't going to help them out either. The best way to place a bet here is on Louisville to cover the spread in this game.
Toledo Louisville Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Tuesday, December 23, 2025 (2:00 pm ET start time) is Louisville 45 Toledo 10.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Toledo Rockets: 6-0 ATS as an underdog. 6-1 ATS after a bye week. 12-5 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 7-2 UNDER off a road win. 5-0 UNDER versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more.
Louisville Cardinals: 12-19 ATS as a favorite. 0-4 ATS as a neutral field favorite. 1-4 ATS in games played on a neutral field. 4-1 UNDER vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. 9-5 UNDER vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season.
Key Injuries
Toledo Rockets: C. Fouty (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Miller (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Ezirim (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Switzer (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Yasin (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Zimmerly (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Rivera (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Moore (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Ollison II (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Snowden (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Willoughby (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Lang (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Dottin (S) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Zsiros (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. Shamma (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Baker IV (DL) Questionable - Upper Body.
Louisville Cardinals: C. Bell (WR) Out - Knee. J. Wilder (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Watson (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. I. Brown (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Brown (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Watts (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Carter (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Folmar (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Gates (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Egan (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Schwartz (P) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“I really couldn’t be more excited to be here with our guys with an opportunity to compete in Boca Raton, hopefully with the same success.” - Robert Weiner on being named Interim Head Coach for the Boca Raton Bowl.
“We’ve had some key guys out, more so than normal, but it can happen. That’s why you have to prepare well and get your guys ready to go. Proud of the new guys for stepping in.” - Jeff Brohm after his team’s win against Kentucky in their regular season finale.
Starting Lineups
Toledo Rockets
WR Treadway, Ryder
WR Rudolph, Trayvon
WR Vandeross III, Junior
TE Petersen, Jacob
QB Gleason, Tucker
RB Trayanum, Chip
Louisville Cardinals
WR Hurry, TreyShun
WR Bell, Chris
WR Lacy, Caullin
TE Kurisky, Nate
QB Moss, Miller
RB Brown, Isaac
Statistical Leaders
Toledo Rockets
Passing: Tucker Gleason (2,515)
Rushing: Chip Trayanum (950)
Receiving: Junior Vandeross III (947)
Touchdowns: Chip Trayanum (13)
Louisville Cardinals
Passing: Miller Moss (2,526)
Rushing: Isaac Brown (782)
Receiving: Chris Bell (917)
Touchdowns: Miller Moss (9)
Coaches:
Toledo Rockets: Robert Weiner (Interim)
Louisville Cardinals: Jeff Brohm (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
