by Team Del Genio
Saturday, Jan 31, 2026As we previously wrote, the most predictable aspect of the college football national championship game was the formula that Miami head coach Mario Cristobal must approach to pull off the upset. The Hurricanes could not get into a shootout with the Hoosiers. Instead, Miami needed to slow this game down to a crawl, wage a war of physicality on both sides of the football, and get that game into the fourth quarter, where they remain in a position to win the game. From that, we concluded that the Hurricanes would cover the point spread and that the final score would finish under the total.
Stepping back, this game featured two of the best defenses in the nation that both rank in the top five in points allowed. The Hurricanes ranked fourth in the nation by allowing only 14.0 points per game. The Hoosiers were even better by giving up just 11.1 points per game. Both of these teams averaged 30.1 seconds per play, which was in the top ten slowest paces in the country.
The Hurricanes' average time of possession was 33:43 minutes per game heading into this game. Cristobal was not going to abandon his script unless they fell behind by three or more scoring possessions. Why was three the magic number? Because even down 14-16 points puts them in a position of being within one scoring possession entering the fourth quarter. That’s when the magic can happen on their home field, with Indiana confronted with the possibility of their dream season crashing. Miami cannot pass their way back into the game. Oregon had a more dynamic passing attack, yet only scored 22 points against the Hoosiers. From our vantage point, either the Hurricanes would manage to keep it close in a low-scoring game, or Indiana would eventually pull away. The Hoosiers had scored 30 or fewer points in five of their games. We see a 13-10 game like Ohio State, a 20-15 game like Iowa. We did not think that the Hurricanes could get to 24 points like Penn State.
Finally, the venue for this game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami has been a reliable source for unders. The Hurricanes share this space with the Miami Dolphins. Since 2005, in NFL games played in November through the rest of the season at this stadium, the under is 58-47-1. Since 2005, in college football games played at this stadium from November through the rest of the season, the under is 86-68-2. In games at Hard Rock Stadium when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 47 or higher, the under trend tightens to a 51-38 mark. With these under records coinciding with two strong defenses, two offenses that slow down the pace of play, and the expected game script, we liked the under.
Our projections were mostly on the money. Miami was conservative on offense in the first half and could not get much going. Three of their five drives in the 1st Half were three-and-out, and they only had one first down before a final drive that ended in a missed 43-yard field goal. Yet the Hurricanes' defense proved up to the challenge and only gave up 10 points in the 1st Half and the two scoring possessions. However, Indiana would get the ball first in the 2nd Half, which put Miami at risk of giving up a touchdown and making it a three-possession game.
Yet in a critical initial 2nd Half drive, the Hurricanes held Indiana to only one first down before they punted. Two plays later, Miami running back Mark Fletcher scored on a 57-yard touchdown run to make it a 10-7 game. That’s where the score would remain before the Hoosiers’ biggest play of the game when they blocked a Hurricanes punt deep in their end of the field and scored a special teams touchdown.
Both offenses picked up in the fourth quarter, with 24 combined points scored. Indiana held on to a 27-21 victory with that blocked punt touchdown representing the winning difference in the game. The Hoosiers were methodical on offense and controlled the time of possession for 36:24 minutes. Yet the Hoosiers only gained 317 yards in the game and got outgained by -25 net yards. The predicted game plan by Cristobal almost worked as Fletcher gained 92 of his 112 rushing yards in the 2nd Half.
The Hurricanes covered the point spread as an underdog as the oddsmakers initially installed them as a +7.5 underdog before the market pushed that number to +8.5. Early bettors won the under after the oddsmakers initially installed the total at 48.5. The number closed at 47.5 or 48 in many spots, meaning that blocked punt touchdown spoiled those bets.
Good luck - TDG.
Stepping back, this game featured two of the best defenses in the nation that both rank in the top five in points allowed. The Hurricanes ranked fourth in the nation by allowing only 14.0 points per game. The Hoosiers were even better by giving up just 11.1 points per game. Both of these teams averaged 30.1 seconds per play, which was in the top ten slowest paces in the country.
The Hurricanes' average time of possession was 33:43 minutes per game heading into this game. Cristobal was not going to abandon his script unless they fell behind by three or more scoring possessions. Why was three the magic number? Because even down 14-16 points puts them in a position of being within one scoring possession entering the fourth quarter. That’s when the magic can happen on their home field, with Indiana confronted with the possibility of their dream season crashing. Miami cannot pass their way back into the game. Oregon had a more dynamic passing attack, yet only scored 22 points against the Hoosiers. From our vantage point, either the Hurricanes would manage to keep it close in a low-scoring game, or Indiana would eventually pull away. The Hoosiers had scored 30 or fewer points in five of their games. We see a 13-10 game like Ohio State, a 20-15 game like Iowa. We did not think that the Hurricanes could get to 24 points like Penn State.
Finally, the venue for this game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami has been a reliable source for unders. The Hurricanes share this space with the Miami Dolphins. Since 2005, in NFL games played in November through the rest of the season at this stadium, the under is 58-47-1. Since 2005, in college football games played at this stadium from November through the rest of the season, the under is 86-68-2. In games at Hard Rock Stadium when the oddsmakers installed the over/under at 47 or higher, the under trend tightens to a 51-38 mark. With these under records coinciding with two strong defenses, two offenses that slow down the pace of play, and the expected game script, we liked the under.
Our projections were mostly on the money. Miami was conservative on offense in the first half and could not get much going. Three of their five drives in the 1st Half were three-and-out, and they only had one first down before a final drive that ended in a missed 43-yard field goal. Yet the Hurricanes' defense proved up to the challenge and only gave up 10 points in the 1st Half and the two scoring possessions. However, Indiana would get the ball first in the 2nd Half, which put Miami at risk of giving up a touchdown and making it a three-possession game.
Yet in a critical initial 2nd Half drive, the Hurricanes held Indiana to only one first down before they punted. Two plays later, Miami running back Mark Fletcher scored on a 57-yard touchdown run to make it a 10-7 game. That’s where the score would remain before the Hoosiers’ biggest play of the game when they blocked a Hurricanes punt deep in their end of the field and scored a special teams touchdown.
Both offenses picked up in the fourth quarter, with 24 combined points scored. Indiana held on to a 27-21 victory with that blocked punt touchdown representing the winning difference in the game. The Hoosiers were methodical on offense and controlled the time of possession for 36:24 minutes. Yet the Hoosiers only gained 317 yards in the game and got outgained by -25 net yards. The predicted game plan by Cristobal almost worked as Fletcher gained 92 of his 112 rushing yards in the 2nd Half.
The Hurricanes covered the point spread as an underdog as the oddsmakers initially installed them as a +7.5 underdog before the market pushed that number to +8.5. Early bettors won the under after the oddsmakers initially installed the total at 48.5. The number closed at 47.5 or 48 in many spots, meaning that blocked punt touchdown spoiled those bets.
Good luck - TDG.
