by Hollywood Sports
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025Dallas (1-2) has lost two of their first three games after their 31-14 upset loss at Chicago as a 1-point favorite last Sunday. Green Bay (2-1) lost their first game of the season in a 13-10 upset loss at Cleveland as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday.
I usually do not include the empirical situational angles in my ever-evolving database in my (already long) Reports that help inform my decisions, but I am making this Report an exception.
Despite blowing a 10-0 lead in the fourth quarter last week in a 13-10 loss at Cleveland to lose their first game of the season, both the betting public and many self-proclaimed “sharps” considered it a given that the Green Bay Packers would take out their frustrations against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. I admit that was my initial take for that game with the Packers coming off an upset loss — especially with Dallas being without their injured wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. But after assessing the historical situational data, I realized that the situation was screaming to back the Cowboys.
Last week, I was not going to be surprised if the Miami Dolphins quit on head coach Mike McDaniel in their Thursday night game at Buffalo — but while the final score finished right around the point spread (the Dolphins covering the spread in most spots) despite the Bills dominating in the yardage battle, there is no question that the team played hard for their embattled head coach. Big underdogs early in the season usually play very hard — especially at home. I rarely include the empirical situational angles in my ever-evolving database in my (already long) Reports that help inform my decisions, but I made an exception to defend my choice to invest in Dallas last Sunday night. In the first nine weeks of the season, home underdogs of seven or more points are 38-10-2 ATS since 2020 — and they are 19-1-2 ATS in those last 22 games in the last three seasons. If Miami overachieved for Thursday Night Football last week, it was not difficult to see the Cowboys rallying around each other in the return of Micah Parsons, and all the drama that entails. In fact, this may be the Super Bowl for Dallas — and they know this game is very important for both them and their owner, Jerry Jones. Expect an inspired effort from the Cowboys, who have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games played in prime time.
Remember, Dallas played well in their Week One loss at home against Philadelphia. They like first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer — and he has done a fine job. Their loss the previous week at Chicago was due to a -4 net turnover margin. They outgained the Bears by +11 net yards, with the offense generating 396 yards. Quarterback Dak Prescott looks more like the one from two years ago, when he finished second in the MVP voting, than last year, when he struggled to play through injuries. The loss of Lamb hurts — but wide receiver George Pickens might be the best second option for this team since Amari Cooper was playing here in his prime. Running back Javonte Williams looks rejuvenated. They have weapons to design a good game plan, even with Lamb.
Green Bay was the toast of the league after the first two weeks — and they enjoyed a 10-0 lead going into the fourth quarter last week on the road at Cleveland before an interception from Jordan Love and a few other mistakes led to the collapse. Blowing leads like that is often a canary in the coal mine. Previously undefeated NFL teams coming off a blown double-digit lead in their first loss of the season have then lost 16 of their next 23 games — and they are just 8-14-1 ATS in those contests. And when those wobbly one-loss teams are playing on the road, they have lost 12 of those 17 games while going just 6-10-1 ATS.
After being anointed as the Super Bowl favorite from the NFC early in the season, it is not difficult to think that Green Bay will remain overconfident now playing against a Cowboys team that they have beaten five times in a row in Dallas, including their last meeting in their 48-32 beatdown in the playoffs two seasons ago.
With Matt LaFleur as their head coach, the Packers had covered the point spread in 19 of their 32 games after a straight-up loss — but while Aaron Rodgers and Malik Willis are 14-5 for LaFleur coming off a loss, quarterback Jordan Love had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of those 13 games when he is under center. Love is still making too many erratic decisions — and the 14 penalties this team committed last week have to be a concern.
To compound matters, Green Bay was without two starting offensive linemen for this game as left guard Aaron Banks is doubtful with a foot injury and right tackle Zach Tom is out with an oblique injury. Admittedly, the Packers’ depth is good on the offensive line — but this offense was generating only 300.0. Yards-Per-Game. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.
Granted, the Dallas pass defense has not been good — they are giving up 288.0 passing YPG. But the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against opponents who are surrendering 235 or more passing YPG. And while the Cowboys are getting outscored by -6.0 PPG, Green Bay had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against opponents who are getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG.
But what about this outstanding defense since the Packers acquired Parsons? They are only giving up 14.7 PPG! In the last 44 games played on Sunday Night Football involving a team that is not giving up more than 19 PPG, those teams with great defenses failed to cover the point spread in 25 of those 44 games.
It did not look good early for Cowboys’ backers with Green Bay taking an early 13-0 lead. Chris Collinsworth was at his obnoxious worst by barely commenting on the game in front of him and instead narrating the funeral he thought he was observing from an inevitable Packers’ blowout victory. But Dallas blocked the attempted extra point after Green Bay’s second touchdown and returned it for a rare defensive two-point conversion. Prescott then oversaw a long 95-yard drive late in the second quarter to make the score 13-9. With under 30 seconds left in the first half, Love was sacked and turned the ball over from a fumble at their 15-yard line. One play later, and the Cowboys had a 16-14 lead, to Collingsworth’s disbelief.
The second half was back and forth, with the Packers consistently shooting themselves in the foot. Their supposed elite defense surrendered 436 yards of offense. Prescott completed 31 of 40 passes for 319 yards with three touchdown passes. The game went into overtime, where both teams exchanged field goals. The game management by LaFleur and Love was amateurish. Green Bay should have won (but not covered the point spread) many times. Instead, they settled for a 40-40 tie.
Maybe the Packers will reach the Super Bowl. But the list of things they need to clean is very long.
Best of luck for us — Frank.
I usually do not include the empirical situational angles in my ever-evolving database in my (already long) Reports that help inform my decisions, but I am making this Report an exception.
Despite blowing a 10-0 lead in the fourth quarter last week in a 13-10 loss at Cleveland to lose their first game of the season, both the betting public and many self-proclaimed “sharps” considered it a given that the Green Bay Packers would take out their frustrations against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. I admit that was my initial take for that game with the Packers coming off an upset loss — especially with Dallas being without their injured wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. But after assessing the historical situational data, I realized that the situation was screaming to back the Cowboys.
Last week, I was not going to be surprised if the Miami Dolphins quit on head coach Mike McDaniel in their Thursday night game at Buffalo — but while the final score finished right around the point spread (the Dolphins covering the spread in most spots) despite the Bills dominating in the yardage battle, there is no question that the team played hard for their embattled head coach. Big underdogs early in the season usually play very hard — especially at home. I rarely include the empirical situational angles in my ever-evolving database in my (already long) Reports that help inform my decisions, but I made an exception to defend my choice to invest in Dallas last Sunday night. In the first nine weeks of the season, home underdogs of seven or more points are 38-10-2 ATS since 2020 — and they are 19-1-2 ATS in those last 22 games in the last three seasons. If Miami overachieved for Thursday Night Football last week, it was not difficult to see the Cowboys rallying around each other in the return of Micah Parsons, and all the drama that entails. In fact, this may be the Super Bowl for Dallas — and they know this game is very important for both them and their owner, Jerry Jones. Expect an inspired effort from the Cowboys, who have covered the point spread in 15 of their last 23 games played in prime time.
Remember, Dallas played well in their Week One loss at home against Philadelphia. They like first-year head coach Brian Schottenheimer — and he has done a fine job. Their loss the previous week at Chicago was due to a -4 net turnover margin. They outgained the Bears by +11 net yards, with the offense generating 396 yards. Quarterback Dak Prescott looks more like the one from two years ago, when he finished second in the MVP voting, than last year, when he struggled to play through injuries. The loss of Lamb hurts — but wide receiver George Pickens might be the best second option for this team since Amari Cooper was playing here in his prime. Running back Javonte Williams looks rejuvenated. They have weapons to design a good game plan, even with Lamb.
Green Bay was the toast of the league after the first two weeks — and they enjoyed a 10-0 lead going into the fourth quarter last week on the road at Cleveland before an interception from Jordan Love and a few other mistakes led to the collapse. Blowing leads like that is often a canary in the coal mine. Previously undefeated NFL teams coming off a blown double-digit lead in their first loss of the season have then lost 16 of their next 23 games — and they are just 8-14-1 ATS in those contests. And when those wobbly one-loss teams are playing on the road, they have lost 12 of those 17 games while going just 6-10-1 ATS.
After being anointed as the Super Bowl favorite from the NFC early in the season, it is not difficult to think that Green Bay will remain overconfident now playing against a Cowboys team that they have beaten five times in a row in Dallas, including their last meeting in their 48-32 beatdown in the playoffs two seasons ago.
With Matt LaFleur as their head coach, the Packers had covered the point spread in 19 of their 32 games after a straight-up loss — but while Aaron Rodgers and Malik Willis are 14-5 for LaFleur coming off a loss, quarterback Jordan Love had failed to cover the point spread in 8 of those 13 games when he is under center. Love is still making too many erratic decisions — and the 14 penalties this team committed last week have to be a concern.
To compound matters, Green Bay was without two starting offensive linemen for this game as left guard Aaron Banks is doubtful with a foot injury and right tackle Zach Tom is out with an oblique injury. Admittedly, the Packers’ depth is good on the offensive line — but this offense was generating only 300.0. Yards-Per-Game. Green Bay has failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 7 road games when favored — and they have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 11 games when laying 3.5 to 9.5 points.
Granted, the Dallas pass defense has not been good — they are giving up 288.0 passing YPG. But the Packers have failed to cover the point spread in 4 straight games on the road against opponents who are surrendering 235 or more passing YPG. And while the Cowboys are getting outscored by -6.0 PPG, Green Bay had failed to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games against opponents who are getting outscored by -6.0 or more PPG.
But what about this outstanding defense since the Packers acquired Parsons? They are only giving up 14.7 PPG! In the last 44 games played on Sunday Night Football involving a team that is not giving up more than 19 PPG, those teams with great defenses failed to cover the point spread in 25 of those 44 games.
It did not look good early for Cowboys’ backers with Green Bay taking an early 13-0 lead. Chris Collinsworth was at his obnoxious worst by barely commenting on the game in front of him and instead narrating the funeral he thought he was observing from an inevitable Packers’ blowout victory. But Dallas blocked the attempted extra point after Green Bay’s second touchdown and returned it for a rare defensive two-point conversion. Prescott then oversaw a long 95-yard drive late in the second quarter to make the score 13-9. With under 30 seconds left in the first half, Love was sacked and turned the ball over from a fumble at their 15-yard line. One play later, and the Cowboys had a 16-14 lead, to Collingsworth’s disbelief.
The second half was back and forth, with the Packers consistently shooting themselves in the foot. Their supposed elite defense surrendered 436 yards of offense. Prescott completed 31 of 40 passes for 319 yards with three touchdown passes. The game went into overtime, where both teams exchanged field goals. The game management by LaFleur and Love was amateurish. Green Bay should have won (but not covered the point spread) many times. Instead, they settled for a 40-40 tie.
Maybe the Packers will reach the Super Bowl. But the list of things they need to clean is very long.
Best of luck for us — Frank.
