Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/04/2025

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, October 4, 2025

Venue:  TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Texas Tech -10.5, Houston +10.5; Over/Under:  50.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Texas Tech -11, Houston +11; Over/Under:  50.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Texas Tech -10.5, Houston +10.5; Over/Under:  50.5 points

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  4-0 (1-0) (2nd place, Big 12)

Houston Cougars:  4-0 (1-0) (4th place, Big 12)

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Texas Tech Red Raiders:  won their last game on the road against the Utah Utes 34-10.

Houston Cougars:  won their last game on the road against the Oregon State Beavers 27-24 in overtime.

Texas Tech is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Utah 34-10. Behren Morton was the starting QB and he completed 12/19 passes for 142 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Cameron Dickey led the team in rushing yards with 67 and 2 TDs. Reggie Virgil led the receivers with 72 receiving yards on 6 receptions and 1 TD. Jacob Rodriguez led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while David Bailey led the defense in sacks with 1. Jacob Rodriguez and Brice Pollock each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Houston is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Oregon State 27-24 in OT. Conner Weigman was the starting QB and he completed 20/36 passes for 270 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Dean Connors led the team in rushing yards with 53. Amare Thomas led the receivers with 104 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Sione Fotu led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 8 assisted tackles while Brandon Mack and Corey Platt Jr. each led the defense in sacks with 0.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Texas Tech listed as a 10.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas Tech has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big 12. They are off a big road win over Utah in their last one and they are starting to look like the team to beat in the Big 12 this year. They beat Utah 34-10 in their own house and they are in a great situation for this game since they are coming out of a bye week. Meanwhile, Houston has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big 12 too. They are off a tough win on the road against Oregon State last week, but Oregon State isn't a good team at all and they needed OT to win that one. Their defense has looked really good in their games this season, but their offense has struggled at times and they still don't have the talent that Texas Tech has. Texas Tech has been putting up a ton of points in their games with a really good offense, but they also have a great defense that won them that game in Utah. Houston will put up a decent fight at home, but Texas Tech will break this game open in the 2nd half and pull away late, just like they did in Utah. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas Tech to cover the spread in this game. 

Texas Tech Houston Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 4, 2025 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Texas Tech 34 Houston 21.

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Texas Tech Red Raiders: 34-20 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 28-20 ATS vs. good passing defenses - allowing 5.75 or less passing yards/att. 38-27 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. 8-4 UNDER in road lined games. 4-0 UNDER versus good defensive teams - allowing 310 yards/game or less.

Houston Cougars: 4-7 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins. 2-6 ATS versus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more. 18-10 UNDER in all lined games. 7-2 UNDER as a home underdog. 7-0 UNDER vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.

Texas Tech Red Raiders:  C. Cleveland (OG) Questionable - Foot. B. Morton (QB) Probable - Upper Body. T. Grant (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Banks (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Hendrix (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Washington (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Dingle Jr. (S) Out - Leg. D. Singleton (DL) Out - Undisclosed. Q. Joyner (RB) Out - Knee.

Houston Cougars:  D. Ndukwe (OG) Out - Leg. A. Gangi Jr. (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Padgitt (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. Q. Lee (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Sterling (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Sanford II (RB) Out - Undisclosed.

“There were times (earlier) in the game where we felt like we could open it up. We just couldn’t get out of our own way. Too many penalties and things we got to address.” - Joey McGuire after his team’s win against Utah in their last game. 

“It was a hard win. We didn't play real good in the first half, particularly offensively. But we started putting it together in the fourth quarter when we needed it. Thank goodness.” - Willie Fritz after his team’s win against Oregon State in their last game. 

WR Virgil, Reggie

WR Douglas, Caleb

WR Eakin, Coy

TE Miller II, Johncarlos

QB Morton, Behren

RB Dickey, Cameron

WR Young, Koby

WR Johnson, Stephon

WR Thomas, Amare

TE Koziol, Tanner

QB Weigman, Conner

RB Connors, Dean

Passing: Behren Morton (1,065)

Rushing: Cameron Dickey (232)

Receiving: Coy Eakin (260)

Touchdowns: Cameron Dickey (6)

Passing: Conner Weigman (839)

Rushing: Dean Connors (324)

Receiving: Stephon Johnson (235)

Touchdowns: Conner Weigman (4)

Coaches:

Texas Tech Red Raiders: Joey McGuire (4th season)

Houston Cougars: Willie Fritz (2nd season)