by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Sep 30, 2026
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 3, 2026
Venue: Folsom Field, Boulder, CO
Where to Watch: FOX
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Texas Tech -12.5, Colorado +12.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Texas Tech -12.5, Colorado +12.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Texas Tech -12.5, Colorado +12.5; Over/Under: 50.5 points
Season Record
Texas Tech Red Raiders: 4-0 (1-0) (1st place, Big 12)
Colorado Buffaloes: 2-2 (0-1) (13th place, Big 12)
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Recent Form
Texas Tech Red Raiders: won their last game at home against the Sam Houston State Bearkats 49-14.
Colorado Buffaloes: lost their last game on the road against the Baylor Bears 23-13.
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Colorado Buffaloes Preview and Analysis
Texas Tech is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Sam Houston State 49-14. Will Hammond was the starting QB and he completed 17/29 passes for 224 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions. Cameron Dickey led the team in rushing yards with 91 and 2 TDs. Kenny Johnson led the receivers with 60 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Austin Romaine led the defense in that game with 9 tackles while LaDamion Guyton led the defense in sacks with 2. Austin Romaine came away with 2 interceptions for them while Peyton Morgan came away with 1 INT in that one.
Colorado is entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Baylor 23-13. Julian Lewis was the starting QB and he completed 11/16 passes for 75 passing yards before getting replaced by Isaac Wilson who completed 12/25 passes for 156 yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Micah Welch led the team in rushing yards with 35. Joseph Williams led the receivers with 127 receiving yards on 11 receptions and 1 TD. Liona Lefau led the defense in that game with 9 tackles while Toby Anene led the defense in sacks with 1. Jason Stokes Jr. came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Texas Tech vs Colorado Prediction
The current betting odds have Texas Tech listed as a 12.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas Tech has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the Big 12. They have been a good road team too with their 1-0 road record this year. Meanwhile, Colorado hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall and their 0-1 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the Big 12. They have looked better on their home field though with their 1-0 home record this season. Colorado started the season with what looked like an impressive road win over Georgia Tech who was one of the best ACC teams last season, but they haven't looked good since that game. The offense has looked terrible, already making a change at QB for this one, and their offense wasn't even that great against Georgia Tech in their 14-13 win. They don't have a proven QB to help move this offense down the field and now they have to face the team that won the Big 12 last season and went to the CFP. Texas Tech is coming off a 49-14 win over Sam Houston State in their last one and their offense has looked a lot better lately. They have the most talented roster in the Big 12 and they are still one of the best teams even if they aren't as good as last year. Their offense has been an issue to start the season, but their QB is also inexperienced and has been getting better as he plays more. They had some trouble against a good Houston team in their only conference game so far, but they escaped with a 28-26 win and that has given them some momentum going forward. Texas Tech still has the talent to overwhelm this Colorado team and take advantage of their struggling offense with questions at QB. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas Tech to cover the spread in this game.
Texas Tech Colorado Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 3, 2026 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Texas Tech 38 Colorado 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Texas Tech Red Raiders: 8-2 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 14 points. 9-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 15-4 ATS against conference opponents. 23-16 OVER as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. 22-11 OVER off 3 or more consecutive overs.
Colorado Buffaloes: 43-60 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. 40-65 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 59-86 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 20-9 OVER after a 2 game road trip. 13-7 OVER as a home underdog of 7.5 to 14 points.
Key Injuries
Texas Tech Red Raiders: T. Carter Jr. (TE) Probable - Shoulder. T. White (LB) Questionable - Knee. A. Boyd (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Colorado Buffaloes: D. Moore Jr. (WR) Questionable - Lower Body. D. Scudero (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Atkins (TE) Out - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“I'm excited about being 4-0. I’m proud of these guys, how they came out in the second half. But it happened again. We’ve got way too many self-inflicted wounds in the first half. That’s why we’re playing close games. That’s what we’re allowing people to be in the game or why we are allowing it to be a closer game than it should be.” - Joey McGuire after his team’s win against SHSU in their last game.
“We ran the ball well in the first half — that’s about it. I’ll take the responsibility for the decision that I made because I was trying to get us going.’” - Deion Sanders after his team’s loss against Baylor in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Texas Tech Red Raiders
WR Johnson, Kenny
WR Hudson, Micah
WR Eakin, Coy
TE Carter Jr., Terrance
QB Hammond, Will
RB Dickey, Cameron
Colorado Buffaloes
WR Moore Jr., DeAndre
WR Williams, Joseph
WR Scudero, Danny
TE Clements, Fisher
QB Wilson, Isaac
RB Welch, Micah
FB Kopetz, Brady
Statistical Leaders
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Passing: Will Hammond (968)
Rushing: J'Koby Williams (285)
Receiving: Kenny Johnson (290)
Touchdowns: Cameron Dickey (4)
Colorado Buffaloes
Passing: Julian Lewis (733)
Rushing: Micah Welch (213)
Receiving: Joseph Williams (361)
Touchdowns: Joseph Williams (4)
Coaches:
Texas Tech Red Raiders: Joey McGuire (5th season)
Colorado Buffaloes: Deion Sanders (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
