Texas State Bobcats vs Texas Longhorns Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/05/2026

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, September 5, 2026

Venue:  Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Texas State +30.5, Texas -30.5; Over/Under:  60.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Texas State +30.5, Texas -30.5; Over/Under:  60.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Texas State +30.5, Texas -30.5; Over/Under:  60.5 points

Texas State Bobcats:  0-0 (0-0) (Pac-12)

Texas Longhorns:  0-0 (0-0) (SEC)

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Texas State Bobcats:  N/A

Texas Longhorns:  N/A

Texas State finished last season with a 7-6 record overall and they had a 3-5 record in their conference games too.  They were 4-2 in their home games, 2-4 in their road games, and they were also 1-0 in their neutral site games last season, but they will be on the road for this season opener. Last season, their offense was averaging 36.5 points scored per game while their defense was allowing an average of 29 points per game. Their offense also averaged 472.8 yards per game while their defense was allowing an average of 382.9 yards per game. Brad Jackson led the team in passing yards with 3,224, Lincoln Pare led the team in rushing yards with 1,128, and Beau Sparks led the team in receiving yards with 1,200.

 

 

 

Texas finished last season with a 10-3 record overall and they had a 6-2 record in their conference games too.  They were 6-0 in their home games, 2-3 in their road games, and they were also 2-0 in their neutral site games last season, but they will be at home for this season opener. Last season, their offense was averaging 30.5 points scored per game while their defense was allowing an average of 20.3 points per game. Their offense also averaged 388.5 yards per game while their defense was allowing an average of 338.8 yards per game. Arch Manning led the team in passing yards with 3,163, Tre Wisner led the team in rushing yards with 597, and Ryan Wingo led the team in receiving yards with 834.

The current betting odds have Texas State listed as a 30.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas State is coming off a solid season going 7-6, but they definitely underperformed in their conference with the talent they had. Their defense wasn't very good and was giving up a ton of points all season, but they had a really good offense that was putting up a ton of points and keeping them in games. The team will be looking to improve this season though and make a splash now that they have joined a new conference, joining the Pac-12. Meanwhile, Texas is coming off a good season with a 10-3 record, but they also severely underperformed with the talent they had. They entered the season ranked like one of the best teams in the nation, but they ended up with a 9-3 record in the regular season which wasn't enough to get them to the CFP. The program has been really good under Sarkisian over the last few years though with multiple playoff appearances and they have the talent to get back there this season. They are returning Arch Manning and have beefed up their offense which struggled at times last season, but they did lose a lot of talent on defense and that defense didn't look great last year from week to week. Texas also has a really big game against Ohio State the next week and that could have playoff implications, so Texas isn't going to kill themselves to run up the score in this one. Texas State will be entering this season with something to prove in their new conference and they have the talent on offense to put up some points here and keep this score more respectable. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas State to cover the spread in this game. 

Texas State Texas Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 5, 2026 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Texas 45 Texas State 20.

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Texas State Bobcats: 5-9 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 4-6 ATS in non-conference games. 15-7 UNDER as an underdog of 21.5 to 31 points. 

Texas Longhorns: 8-5 ATS in home lined games. 26-16 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. 16-10 UNDER against FBS division opponents.

Texas State Bobcats:  None.

Texas Longhorns:  T. Goosby (OG) Questionable - Knee. D. McCutcheon (WR) Questionable - Illness.

"You can just feel it out there. They're [the defense] playing very confident... Everyone comes, all the donors and the people and [say], 'The defense looks so much better!' We haven't played a game, but it does feel better." - G.J. Kinne on his team coming into this new college football season.

“What I was trying to get at Saturday from an offensive perspective, it felt a little, I guess, lethargic is the best word for what we’ve been in practice, for how good of a week they had, and so we’ve got to do a better job from an offensive coach’s perspective of making sure the mentality is right when we’re in those conditions.” - Steve Sarkisian on his team coming into this new CFB season.

WR Sparks, Beau

WR Dawn Jr., Chris

WR Evans, Kylen

TE Smith, Blake

QB Jackson, Brad

RB Burrell, Greg

WR Coleman, Cam

WR Wingo, Ryan

WR Mosley V, Emmett

TE Shannon, Spencer

TE Townsend, Nick

QB Manning, Arch

RB Smothers, Hollywood

Passing: N/A

Rushing: N/A

Receiving: N/A

Touchdowns: N/A

Passing: N/A

Rushing: N/A

Receiving: N/A

Touchdowns: N/A

Coaches:

Texas State Bobcats: G.J. Kinne (4th season)

Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (6th season)