by Rod Pearson
Monday, Sep 21, 2026
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Saturday, September 26, 2026
Venue: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Texas -4.5, Tennessee +4.5; Over/Under: 56.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Texas -4.5, Tennessee +4.5; Over/Under: 56.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Texas -5, Tennessee +5; Over/Under: 56.5 points
Season Record
Texas Longhorns: 3-0 (0-0) (7th place, SEC)
Tennessee Volunteers: 3-0 (0-0) (7th place, SEC)
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Texas Longhorns: won their last game at home against the UTSA Roadrunners 30-6.
Tennessee Volunteers: won their last game at home against the Kennesaw State Owls 42-9.
Texas Longhorns vs Tennessee Volunteers Preview and Analysis
Texas is entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against UTSA 30-6. Arch Manning was the starting QB and he completed 17/33 passes for 164 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Daylan Smothers led the team in rushing yards with 54. Cam Coleman led the receivers with 59 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 2 TDs. Rasheem Biles and Kade Phillips each led the defense in that game with 4 tackles while Colin Simmons led the defense in sacks with 1. Rasheem Biles came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Tennessee is entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Kennesaw State 42-9. Faizon Brandon was the starting QB and he completed 18/26 passes for 178 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Daune Morris led the team in rushing yards with 116 and 1 TD. Braylon Staley led the receivers with 59 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Arion Carter led the defense in that game with 8 tackles while Arion Carter and Jordan Norman each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Texas vs Tennessee Prediction
The current betting odds have Tennessee listed as a 4.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Tennessee has looked great in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall so far. They have also looked great on their home field with their 2-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, Texas has looked great in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall so far. They haven't played any road games though and will be playing their 1st road game of the season here. Texas is coming off a 30-6 win over UTSA in their last one and their defense has looked great this season. They haven't been giving up many points in any of their games and even though they have played some weaker opponents in talent, playing 2 teams from the group of 6, neither team they played is a bad group of 6 team and they still shut down those good offenses. The offense hasn't looked great though, having trouble against UTSA in their last one and they had a lot of trouble the week before too. Texas has the best win in the nation this season with a 24-23 win over Ohio State, but their offense looked terrible for 3 quarters with the defense keeping them in the game long enough for the offense to just do enough. Now they are starting conference play with this being their 1st road game of the season too and Tennessee is a team that can put up points. Tennessee doesn't have the best defense, so Texas should look better on offense in this one, but Tennessee is also going to bring their best effort at home for the number 1 team in the nation and that offense will find ways to put up points and keep this game close. The best way to place a bet here is on Tennessee to cover the spread in this game.
Texas Tennessee Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 26, 2026 (12:00 pm ET start time) is Texas 27 Tennessee 24.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Texas Longhorns: 2-7 ATS in road lined games. 3-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins. 5-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 11-5 UNDER against conference opponents. 10-4 UNDER after allowing 14 points or less last game.
Tennessee Volunteers: 6-2 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game. 5-1 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more. 9-4 UNDER when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 4-1 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive straight up wins.
Key Injuries
Texas Longhorns: N. Townsend (TE) Out - Knee. D. McCutcheon (WR) Questionable - Illness. T. Goosby (OG) Questionable - Knee. D. Cooper (RB) Questionable - Foot.
Tennessee Volunteers: J. Baker (RB) Questionable - Hand. J. Gordon (RB) Questionable - Leg. J. Harmon (LB) Out - Knee.
Notable Quotes
“Not an easy week, you know, from the highs of last week's game to some of the stuff we had to deal with this week. That's human nature.” - Steve Sarkisian after his team’s win against UTSA in their last game.
“People get caught up with who the starter (Bishop) is. Daune ran well. We're fully confident in him. The guys trust him.” - Josh Heupel after his team’s win against Kennesaw State in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Texas Longhorns
WR Wingo, Ryan
WR Coleman, Cam
WR Mosley V, Emmett
TE Shannon, Spencer
TE Townsend, Nick
QB Manning, Arch
RB Smothers, Hollywood
Tennessee Volunteers
WR Matthews, Mike
WR Jackson, Radarious
WR Staley, Braylon
TE Brame, DaSaahn
QB Brandon, Faizon
RB Bishop, DeSean
Statistical Leaders
Texas Longhorns
Passing: Arch Manning (664)
Rushing: Hollywood Smothers (198)
Receiving: Cam Coleman (178)
Touchdowns: Cam Coleman (4)
Tennessee Volunteers
Passing: Faizon Brandon (552)
Rushing: DeSean Bishop (286)
Receiving: Mike Matthews (189)
Touchdowns: DeSean Bishop (4)
Coaches:
Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (6th season)
Tennessee Volunteers: Josh Heupel (6th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
