Texas Longhorns vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 10/25/2025

Game Time: 4:15 pm ET, Saturday, October 25, 2025

Venue:  Davis Wade Stadium, Mississippi State, MS

Where to Watch:  SEC Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Texas -7, MS State +7; Over/Under:  44.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Texas -7, MS State +7; Over/Under:  45 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Texas -7, MS State +7; Over/Under:  44.5 points

Texas Longhorns:  5-2 (2-1) (8th place, SEC)

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  4-3 (0-3) (13th place, SEC)

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Texas Longhorns:  won their last game on the road against the Kentucky Wildcats 16-13 in overtime.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  lost their last game on the road against the Florida Gators 23-21.

Texas is entering this game with a 5-2 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Kentucky 16-13 in OT. Arch Manning was the starting QB and he completed 12/27 passes for 132 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Quintrevion Wisner led the team in rushing yards with 37 and 1 TD. DeAndre Moore Jr. led the receivers with 37 receiving yards on 3 receptions. Anthony Hill Jr. led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Colin Simmons led the defense in sacks with 3. Anthony Hill Jr. came away with the only interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 4-3 record overall and they have a 0-3 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 1-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Florida 23-21. Blake Shapen was the starting QB and he completed 24/36 passes for 324 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Davon Booth led the team in rushing yards with 105 and 2 TDs. Brenen Thompson led the receivers with 155 receiving yards on 7 receptions. Brylan Lanier led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted tackle while Brylan Lanier and Isaac Smith each led the defense in sacks with 1. Brylan Lanier came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Mississippi State listed as a 7 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Mississippi State has looked good in their games this season with their 4-3 record overall, but their 0-3 conference record has them right near the bottom of the SEC. They are still one of the worst teams in the SEC, but they have improved a lot from where they were last season and they have even been playing in some close conference games. They took Tennessee to OT and are coming off a 23-21 loss to Florida on the road. They have also looked a lot better on their own field this year with their 3-1 home record. Meanwhile, Texas has looked good in their games this season with their 5-2 record overall and their 2-1 conference record which has them near the top of the SEC. They were ranked as one of the best teams in the nation coming into the season, but they have fallen far from where they once were. They didn't look terrible in their loss to Ohio State to start the season, but it has all been downhill since then. They took a bad loss to Florida a few weeks ago and now they are off a 16-13 win over Kentucky which they needed OT to beat one of the worst teams in the SEC. Arch Manning has looked terrible too and they are 1-2 in road games this season. Mississippi State isn't as bad as they were last season and this Texas team that was considered to be a playoff team entering the season is long gone. The best way to place a bet here is on Mississippi State to cover the spread in this game.

Texas Mississippi State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 25, 2025 (4:15 pm ET start time) is Texas 24 MS State 20.

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Texas Longhorns: 3-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 4-9 ATS vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 22-12 UNDER in all lined games. 7-1 UNDER as a road favorite. 8-2 UNDER when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 8-3 UNDER after playing their last game on the road.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 6-3 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 5-1 ATS vs. good defensive teams who give up 17 or less points/game. 5-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses. 25-16 UNDER as a home underdog of 7 points or less. 31-19 UNDER versus good defensive teams - allowing 4.5 yards/play or less.

Texas Longhorns:  M. Taaffe (CB) Out - Undisclosed. C. Stroh (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. X. Filsaime (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Hutson (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Cunningham (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Butler (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Baxter Jr. (RB) Questionable - Hamstring. M. Watson (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Cojoe (OG) Out - Knee.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  J. Shumpert-Perkins (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. F. Bothwell (RB) Questionable - Leg. B. Steen (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Smith (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. W. Whitson (DL) Out - Undisclosed.

“Absolute credit to our defense. What a tremendous goal-line stand in overtime. What a tremendous job by our special teams ... half the SEC lost today, and we were on the other half that won.” - Steve Sarkisian after his team’s win against Kentucky in their last game. 

“I love the call. I don’t like what the outcome was. We had a ton of opportunities. It comes down to that last play.” - Jeff Lebby after his team’s loss against Florida in their last game. 

WR Wingo, Ryan

WR Livingstone, Parker

WR Moore Jr., DeAndre

TE Endries, Jack

QB Manning, Arch

RB Wisner, Quintrevion

WR Thompson, Brenen

WR Mosley, Jordan

WR Evans III, Anthony

TE Traore, Seydou

QB Shapen, Blake

RB Bothwell, Fluff

Passing: Arch Manning (1,449)

Rushing: Quintrevion Wisner (222)

Receiving: Ryan Wingo (320)

Touchdowns: Arch Manning (5)

Passing: Blake Shapen (1,525)

Rushing: Fluff Bothwell (465)

Receiving: Brenen Thompson (533)

Touchdowns: Fluff Bothwell (6)

Coaches:

Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (5th season)

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Jeff Lebby (2nd season)