by Rod Pearson
Wednesday, Oct 01, 2025
Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 4, 2025
Venue: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Texas -6.5, Florida +6.5; Over/Under: 41.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Texas -7, Florida +7; Over/Under: 42 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Texas -7, Florida +7; Over/Under: 41.5 points
Season Record
Texas Longhorns: 3-1 (0-0) (12th place, SEC)
Florida Gators: 1-3 (0-1) (16th place, SEC)
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Texas Longhorns: won their last game at home against the Sam Houston State Bearkats 55-0.
Florida Gators: lost their last game on the road against the Miami Hurricanes 26-7.
Texas Longhorns vs Florida Gators Preview and Analysis
Texas is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Sam Houston State 55-0. Arch Manning was the starting QB and he completed 18/21 passes for 309 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Christian Clark led the team in rushing yards with 62 and 1 TD. Ryan Wingo led the receivers with 93 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 2 TDs. Liona Lefau led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Brad Spence, Lance Jackson, Trey Moore, Smith Orogbo, and Colin Simmons each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jelani McDonald came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Florida is entering this game with a 1-3 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 1-1 in their home games, 0-2 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Miami-FL 26-7. DJ Lagway was the starting QB and he completed 12/23 passes for 61 passing yards, 0 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jadan Baugh led the team in rushing yards with 46 and 1 TD. Vernell Brown III led the receivers with 22 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Jordan Castell led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Jayden Woods led the defense in sacks with 1. Cormani McClain came away with the only interception for them in that one.
Texas vs Florida Prediction
The current betting odds have Texas listed as a 6.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Texas has looked good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall, but they haven't played a conference game yet and their only loss was to Ohio State. They did play a tight game with Ohio State on the road and that was in their season opener so they have had some time to grow. Arch Manning hasn't looked great this season, but he finally looked a lot better in their last one and Texas does have one of the best defenses in the SEC too. Meanwhile, Florida hasn't looked good in their games this season with their 1-3 record overall and their 0-1 conference record which has them right near the bottom of the SEC. Florida's only win this season was against a team from the FCS and their offense has looked terrible in their games other than that season opener. They do have a really good defense that has been keeping their games closer, but Texas also has a great defense so it isn't going to be any easier for this Florida offense to move the ball. Florida's defense will only be able to hold onto this game for so long before the Texas offense blows it open. Look for Texas to pick up their first SEC win of the season here and gain some momentum going into the conference schedule. The best way to place a bet here is on Texas to cover the spread in this game.
Texas Florida Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 4, 2025 (3:30 pm ET start time) is Texas 28 Florida 10.
Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Texas Longhorns Florida Gators prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.
NCAAF Betting Trends
Texas Longhorns: 8-4 ATS off a home win by 17 points or more. 30-16 ATS versus poor rushing teams - averaging 120 rushing yards/game or less. 7-3 ATS vs. poor offensive teams - scoring 17 or less points/game. 20-11 UNDER in all lined games. 6-0 UNDER as a road favorite. 13-5 UNDER against conference opponents.
Florida Gators: 7-13 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders. 18-26 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game. 4-10 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses. 5-1 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 30-21 UNDER off a road loss.
Key Injuries
Texas Longhorns: Q. Wisner (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Baxter Jr. (RB) Questionable - Hamstring. A. January (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. E. Mosley V (WR) Questionable - Leg. C. Page (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Stewart Jr. (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. A. Cojoe (OG) Out - Knee.
Florida Gators: D. Lagway (QB) Questionable - Leg. K. Waites (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. L. McCray (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Gumbs Jr. (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Banks (DL) Questionable - Foot. M. Boireau (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Wilson (WR) Questionable - Leg. F. Westphal (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Webb (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. S. Isacks (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Caraway Jr. (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“When he plays a little looser and he’s free, that’s the best version of Arch. He got going and started throwing the ball. Started using his legs. You could feel the bounce in his step on the field.” - Steve Sarkisian after his team’s win against SHSU in their last game.
“The first half was a trial of errors. Not many plays where we executed well at all. We struggled to stack good plays together.” - Billy Napier after his team’s loss against Miami-Florida in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Texas Longhorns
WR Wingo, Ryan
WR Livingstone, Parker
WR Moore Jr., DeAndre
TE Endries, Jack
QB Manning, Arch
RB Wisner, Quintrevion
Florida Gators
WR Wilson III, Eugene
WR Sturdivant, J. Michael
WR Brown III, Vernell
TE Hansen, Hayden
QB Lagway, DJ
RB Baugh, Jadan
Statistical Leaders
Texas Longhorns
Passing: Arch Manning (888)
Rushing: Jerrick Gibson (155)
Receiving: Parker Livingstone (232)
Touchdowns: Arch Manning (5)
Florida Gators
Passing: DJ Lagway (690)
Rushing: Jadan Baugh (289)
Receiving: Vernell Brown III (219)
Touchdowns: Jadan Baugh (2)
Coaches:
Texas Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian (5th season)
Florida Gators: Billy Napier (4th season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
