Tennessee Volunteers vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/27/2025

Game Time: 4:15 pm ET, Saturday, September 27, 2025

Venue:  Davis Wade Stadium, Mississippi State, MS

Where to Watch:  SEC Network

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Tennessee -7.5, MS State +7.5; Over/Under:  63.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Tennessee -7.5, MS State +7.5; Over/Under:  63 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Tennessee -7.5, MS State +7.5; Over/Under:  62.5 points

Tennessee Volunteers:  3-1 (0-1) (9th place, SEC)

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  4-0 (0-0) (7th place, SEC)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Nelly’s Sports is on a HOT STREAK in college football on a 15-6 CFB RUN for +$8,450 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Tennessee Volunteers:  won their last game at home against the UAB Blazers 56-24.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  won their last game at home against the Northern Illinois Huskies 38-10.

Tennessee is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 0-1 record in their conference games too. They are 2-1 in their home games, 0-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against UAB 56-24. Joey Aguilar was the starting QB and he completed 15/22 passes for 218 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Peyton Lewis led the team in rushing yards with 81 and 1 TD. Chris Brazzell II led the receivers with 62 receiving yards on 5 receptions and 1 TD. Boo Carter led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Boo Carter led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.

 

 

 

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 4-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Northern Illinois 38-10. Blake Shapen was the starting QB and he completed 12/20 passes for 160 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Fluff Bothwell led the team in rushing yards with 101. Anthony Evans III led the receivers with 80 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Jahron Manning led the defense in that game with 2 solo tackles and 5 assisted tackles while Raishein Thomas led the defense in sacks with 1. Isaac Smith came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Tennessee listed as a 7.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Tennessee has looked really good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall, but their 0-1 conference record has them lower in the SEC. That 1 loss was against Georgia though and it was in a really tight game that went to OT. Tennessee has been giving up a lot of points this season as they definitely have some issues on defense, but their offense has looked great with Joey Aguilar leading the charge. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has looked great in their games this season with their 4-0 record overall, but they haven't really played any great teams yet. They have 1 great win over Arizona State, but that win was at home and they almost got shut down in the 2nd half if it wasn't for a late TD to win them the game. They have struggled against some of the weaker opponents they have played against too, keeping them around at halftime before blowing the game open in the 2nd half. That isn't going to be a winning strategy against a team like Tennessee though and their inability to put teams away will come back to bite them if they do have a lead in this game. Tennessee is still the much better team overall and they will be looking to erase that Georgia loss with a conference win here. The best way to place a bet here is on Tennessee to cover the spread in this game. 

Tennessee Mississippi State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, September 27, 2025 (4:15 pm ET start time) is Tennessee 42 MS State 24.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Tennessee Volunteers Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our weekly NCAAF predictions and previews.

Tennessee Volunteers: 3-6 ATS in road lined games. 3-7 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 8 or more passing yards/att. 4-9 ATS versus good offensive teams - averaging 5.9 yards/play or more. 4-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63. 6-3 UNDER vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 5-2 ATS after a 2 game home stand. 4-1 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 5-1 ATS vs. good offensive  teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 5-0 UNDER off a home win by 17 points or more. 6-0 UNDER after scoring 37 points or more last game.

Tennessee Volunteers:  D. Hobbs (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Brame (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Jackson (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Moi (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Sanders Jr. (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. H. Barnes (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Gibson III (CB) Out - Undisclosed. J. McCoy (CB) Out - Knee.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  W. Whitson (DL) Out - Undisclosed.

“I had no idea. We've had a lot of growth in the program. We control where we go (this season).” - Josh Heupel after his team’s win against UAB in their last game. 

“I think we’ve got a tough football team. We’ve got a team that will respond the right way when things aren’t perfect. There’s been those moments in a lot of different ways where things haven’t been perfect. Our guys have responded the right way. Good football teams do that. Tough football teams do that.” - Jeff Lebby after his team’s win against NIU in their last game. 

WR Matthews, Mike

WR Brazzell II, Chris

WR Staley, Braylon

TE Kitselman, Miles

QB Aguilar, Joey

RB Bishop, DeSean

WR Thompson, Brenen

WR Mosley, Jordan

WR Evans III, Anthony

TE Traore, Seydou

QB Shapen, Blake

RB Booth, Davon

Passing: Joey Aguilar (1,124)

Rushing: Star Thomas (272)

Receiving: Chris Brazzell II (426)

Touchdowns: Chris Brazzell II (6)

Passing: Blake Shapen (884)

Rushing: Fluff Bothwell (271)

Receiving: Brenen Thompson (291)

Touchdowns: Fluff Bothwell (4)

Coaches:

Tennessee Volunteers: Josh Heupel (5th season)

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Jeff Lebby (2nd season)