by Rod Pearson
Thursday, Oct 16, 2025
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 18, 2025
Venue: Saban Field at Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Where to Watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Tennessee +8.5, Alabama -8.5; Over/Under: 58.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Tennessee +8, Alabama -8; Over/Under: 59 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Tennessee +8.5, Alabama -8.5; Over/Under: 58.5 points
Season Record
Tennessee Volunteers: 5-1 (2-1) (5th place, SEC)
Alabama Crimson Tide: 5-1 (3-0) (3rd place, SEC)
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Tennessee Volunteers: won their last game at home against the Arkansas Razorbacks 34-31.
Alabama Crimson Tide: won their last game on the road against the Missouri Tigers 27-24.
Tennessee Volunteers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Preview and Analysis
Tennessee is entering this game with a 5-1 record overall and they have a 2-1 record in their conference games too. They are 3-1 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 1-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Arkansas 34-31. Joey Aguilar was the starting QB and he completed 16/25 passes for 221 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. DeSean Bishop led the team in rushing yards with 146 and 1 TD. Braylon Staley led the receivers with 109 receiving yards on 6 receptions. Edrees Farooq led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 3 assisted tackles while Jordan Ross led the defense in sacks with 1.5. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Alabama is entering this game with a 5-1 record overall and they have a 3-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 2-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Missouri 27-24. Ty Simpson was the starting QB and he completed 23/31 passes for 200 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Jamarion Miller led the team in rushing yards with 85. Lotzeir Brooks led the receivers with 58 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Deontae Lawson and Justin Jefferson each led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while LT Overton led the defense in sacks with 1.5. Bray Hubbard and Dijon Lee Jr. each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
Tennessee vs Alabama Prediction
The current betting odds have Alabama listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Alabama has looked great in their games this season with their 5-1 record overall and their 3-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the SEC. They have looked great since losing their season opener to Florida State and they are starting to look like one of the best teams in the nation now. Their offense has been great in their games and their defense hasn't been giving up many points against some good offenses. Meanwhile, Tennessee has looked really good in their games this season with their 5-1 record overall and their 2-1 conference record which has them higher in the SEC. Their only loss was in a really tight game against Georgia, but their offense has looked great in every game this season. They have one of the best offenses in the nation at the moment, but their defense has been a big issue for them. They are off a 34-31 win over Arkansas in a game which they blew a huge lead in and their defense has been giving up a ton of points all season too. They aren't going to keep this Alabama offense off the board as they continue to find ways to score when they need to, and Alabama has the better defense to keep Tennessee down in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on Alabama to cover the spread in this game.
Tennessee Alabama Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 18, 2025 (7:30 pm ET start time) is Alabama 34 Tennessee 24.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Tennessee Volunteers: 3-7 ATS in road lined games. 6-12 ATS against conference opponents. 3-6 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season. 8-4 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. 4-0 UNDER in a road game where the total is between 56.5 and 63.
Alabama Crimson Tide: 12-4 ATS as a home favorite. 10-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road. 10-3 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%). 10-5 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 6-2 UNDER vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. 7-2 UNDER versus good offensive teams - averaging 425 yards/game or more.
Key Injuries
Tennessee Volunteers: T. Smith Jr. (WR) Out - Undisclosed. R. Jackson (WR) Out - Undisclosed. D. Bishop (RB) Probable - Undisclosed. E. Davis (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. R. Gibson III (CB) Out - Undisclosed. J. McCoy (CB) Out - Knee.
Alabama Crimson Tide: Q. Russaw (LB) Out - Leg. D. Meadows (WR) Out - Undisclosed. J. Latham (LB) Out - Neck. C. Jones (LB) Out - Undisclosed. J. Miller (RB) Questionable - Concussion. J. Mbakwe (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Beaman (DL) Out - Lower Body.
Notable Quotes
“We had to find a way to win. (With three defensive coaches added) we didn't know what (Arkansas') defensive structure would look like.” - Josh Heupel after his team’s win against Arkansas in their last game.
“We did the job. Got the job done. Each side of the ball, we covered for each other.” - Kalen DeBoer after his team’s win against Mizzou in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Tennessee Volunteers
WR Matthews, Mike
WR Brazzell II, Chris
WR Staley, Braylon
TE Kitselman, Miles
QB Aguilar, Joey
RB Bishop, DeSean
Alabama Crimson Tide
WR Horton, Isaiah
WR Bernard, Germie
WR Williams, Ryan
TE Lewis Jr., Danny
TE Cuevas, Josh
QB Simpson, Ty
RB Miller, Jam
Statistical Leaders
Tennessee Volunteers
Passing: Joey Aguilar (1,680)
Rushing: DeSean Bishop (481)
Receiving: Chris Brazzell II (536)
Touchdowns: Chris Brazzell II (7)
Alabama Crimson Tide
Passing: Ty Simpson (1,678)
Rushing: Jam Miller (267)
Receiving: Germie Bernard (412)
Touchdowns: Germie Bernard (6)
Coaches:
Tennessee Volunteers: Josh Heupel (5th season)
Alabama Crimson Tide: Kalen DeBoer (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
