TCU Horned Frogs vs Arizona State Sun Devils Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 09/26/2025

Game Time: 9:00 pm ET, Friday, September 26, 2025

Venue:  Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ

Where to Watch:  FOX

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  TCU +2.5, ASU -2.5; Over/Under:  54.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  TCU +2.5, ASU -2.5; Over/Under:  54.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  TCU +2.5, ASU -2.5; Over/Under:  54.5 points

TCU Horned Frogs:  3-0 (0-0) (7th place, Big 12)

Arizona State Sun Devils:  3-1 (1-0) (5th place, Big 12)

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TCU Horned Frogs:  won their last game at home against the SMU Mustangs 35-24.

Arizona State Sun Devils:  won their last game on the road against the Baylor Bears 27-24.

TCU is entering this game with a 3-0 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against SMU 35-24. Josh Hoover was the starting QB and he completed 22/40 passes for 379 passing yards, 5 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Trent Battle led the team in rushing yards with 60. Eric McAlister led the receivers with 254 receiving yards on 8 receptions and 3 TDs. Kaleb Elarms-Orr led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Kaleb Elarms-Orr and Paul Oyewale each led the defense in sacks with 1. Jamel Johnson came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that one.

 

 

 

Arizona State is entering this game with a 3-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 2-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against Baylor 27-24. Sam Leavitt was the starting QB and he completed 22/32 passes for 221 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Raleek Brown led the team in rushing yards with 80. Derek Eusebio led the receivers with 78 receiving yards on 2 receptions. Keyshaun Elliott led the defense in that game with 8 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while Keyshaun Elliott and C.J. Fite each led the defense in sacks with 1. Keith Abney II came away with the only interception for them in that one.

The current betting odds have Arizona State listed as a 2.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Arizona State has looked good in their games this season with their 3-1 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them in a good position in the Big 12. Their 1 loss was on the road against Mississippi State, but that was a really close game against an opponent from the SEC and they had a chance to win that one. They bounced back in their next game and now they are off a road win against Baylor to open up the conference schedule. They entered the season as a ranked team and quickly lost that ranking after losing to Mississippi State, but now they are playing with something to prove as the defending Big 12 champions so they are going to bring their best effort here at home after a good start to the conference schedule. Meanwhile, TCU has looked great in their games this season with their 3-0 record overall. They are off a big win at home over SMU in their last one, but SMU isn't the same team that made the playoffs last year. TCU also has a road test under their belt, but they beat UNC in that road game and UNC hasn't looked all that impressive. This TCU defense has also been really bad against much weaker offenses in the first few weeks so Arizona State has a big advantage at home with their defense being the better unit here. TCU will have to lean on their offense to get them the win here, but the edge goes to ASU at home with the better defense. The best way to place a bet here is on Arizona State to cover the spread in this game. 

TCU Arizona State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, September 26, 2025 (9:00 pm ET start time) is Arizona State 27 TCU 24.

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TCU Horned Frogs: 14-25 ATS as a road underdog of 7 points or less. 16-23 ATS on the road versus good rushing defenses - allowing 120 rushing yards/game or less. 29-21 OVER as a road underdog. 20-13 OVER after a 2 game home stand.

Arizona State Sun Devils: 19-10 ATS in all lined games. 5-1 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. 14-5 ATS against conference opponents. 9-3 OVER when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 6-3 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%).

TCU Horned Frogs:  K. Barnes (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Pimpton (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Abrams (LB) Out - Leg.

Arizona State Sun Devils:  M. Warren (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Teloma (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Moss (WR) Questionable - Illness/Foot. P. Johnson (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Helton (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Fortier (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Dyer (QB) Questionable - Undisclosed. X. Alford (CB) Out - Undisclosed.

“The guy just took over the game, and that's what great players do. The one catch when Josh got hit the ball flew up in the air, that usually doesn’t turn out particularly well. And Eric somehow positioned himself underneath the ball and made a play which turned out to be one of the biggest plays of the game.” - Sonny Dykes after his team’s win against SMU in their last game. 

“Can we not just play a little bit better earlier? Golly. Great kick, but that’s what was going through my head (during the kick) was like, ‘Do we really need this every single week?’” - Kenny Dillingham after his team’s win against Baylor in their last game. 

WR Dwyer, Jordan

WR McAlister, Eric

WR Manjack IV, Joseph

TE Rogers, DJ

QB Hoover, Josh

RB Barnes, Kevorian

WR McClain, Malik

WR Moss, Jalen

WR Tyson, Jordyn

WR Hamilton, Jaren

TE Metayer, Chamon

QB Leavitt, Sam

RB Brown, Kyson

Passing: Josh Hoover (1,000)

Rushing: Kevorian Barnes (156)

Receiving: Eric McAlister (320)

Touchdowns: Eric McAlister (3)

Passing: Sam Leavitt (748)

Rushing: Raleek Brown (372)

Receiving: Jordyn Tyson (357)

Touchdowns: Jordyn Tyson (5)

Coaches:

TCU Horned Frogs: Sonny Dykes (4th season)

Arizona State Sun Devils: Kenny Dillingham (3rd season)