Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2026

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Saturday, July 4, 2026

Venue:  Daikin Park, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -110, Astros -110; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -110, Astros -110; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -110, Astros -110; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Tampa Bay Rays:  51-33 (1st place, AL East)

Houston Astros:  43-46 (3rd place, AL West)

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Tampa Bay Rays:  8-2 last 10

Houston Astros:  6-4 last 10

The Rays are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Kansas City Royals 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 51-33 record overall and have a road record of 20-21. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Astros on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .737 OPS. Nick Martinez is their starting pitcher on Friday while Drew Rasmussen is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 5 SO on 3 hits through 6 IP against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Astros are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Minnesota Twins 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-46 record overall and have a home record of 21-23. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Rays on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .725 OPS. Spencer Arrighetti is their starting pitcher on Friday while Hunter Brown is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 1-0 with a 1.78 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts on 5 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Detroit Tigers.

The current betting odds have the Astros listed as a pick ‘em in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays have looked great in their games this season with their 51-33 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL East with one of the best records in MLB. They haven't been a great road team though with their 20-21 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Astros haven't looked great in their games this season with their 43-46 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL West. They haven't looked great in their own ballpark either with their 21-23 home record this season. The Rays just swept the Royals in their last series and have been rolling lately, now 8-2 in their last 10 games, but the Astros are 6-4 in their last 10 and have been getting really hot now. The Astros were in a big hole to start the season, but now they are getting healthier with better pitching and they are right back in the race for the AL West. They are going with Brown in this one and he has looked great this season too. He is 1-0 with a 1.78 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs at all. He is coming off another good start in which he gave up 2 earned runs which has been a common theme for him, and his team has had a lot of success lately too, winning 3 of their last 4 games with him starting. The Rays are going with Rasmussen in this one and he has also looked great this season. He is 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs either. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up no runs, but the team has had some trouble with him lately, losing 2 of their last 3 games with him starting. The Astros do have the edge at home with the slightly better starter here and the Rays have also looked like a completely different team on the road this season. The best way to place a bet here is on the Astros to win this game. 

Rays Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 4, 2026 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Astros 2 Rays 1.

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Tampa Bay Rays: 34-36 (-6.2 units) on the moneyline against AL West opponents. 208-200 (-4.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 93-109 (-7.9 units) on the moneyline in road games. 7-2 UNDER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game.

Houston Astros: 44-36 (+8.5 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 143-123 (+12.9 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 59-43 (+11.8 units) on the moneyline when the total is 7 to 7.5. 35-16 UNDER at home when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Tampa Bay Rays:  S. Matz (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Ankle. J. Heasley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Lux (LF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Scholtens (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Wrist. J. Fraley (RF) Ten Day IL - Groin. R. Pepiot (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. E. Uceta (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. S. Wilson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. M. Rodriguez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Houston Astros:  K. Teng (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. C. Walker (1B) Day To Day - Back. R. Delgado (2B) Day To Day - Finger. J. Pena (SS) Ten Day IL - Calf. L. Wade Jr. (1B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. B. Shewmake (SS) Ten Day IL - Groin. C. Correa (SS) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. B. Sousa (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. C. Javier (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“It was huge. They balanced us out a little bit. It's not going to be the guys at the top every single night. We know that. They know that.” - Kevin Cash after his team’s win against the Royals in their game on Thursday. 

“There’s a season to be played. There is an objective as a team we’re trying to accomplish. We’re looking at all those factors, and we’re putting every individual where they’re in a position to have some success, and anything could change at any minute.” - Joe Espada after his team’s loss against the Twins in their game on Wednesday. 

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Victor Mesa Jr. (L) RF

Chandler Simpson (L) LF

Cedric Mullins (L) CF

Taylor Walls (S) SS

Richie Palacios (L) 2B

Hunter Feduccia (L) C

Jose Altuve (R) 2B

Yordan Alvarez (L) DH

Isaac Paredes (R) 3B

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Cam Smith (R) RF

Taylor Trammell (L) CF

Yainer Diaz (R) C

Joey Loperfido (L) LF

Raynel Delgado (L) SS

Batting Average:  Yandy Díaz (.326)

Hits:  Yandy Díaz (100)

Home Runs:  Junior Caminero (24)

RBI:  Jonathan Aranda (58)

Stolen Bases:  Chandler Simpson (20)

Wins:  Nick Martinez (7)

Saves:  Bryan Baker (22)

ERA:  Michael Grove (0.00)

Batting Average:  LaMonte Wade (.333)

Hits:  Yordan Alvarez (100)

Home Runs:  Yordan Alvarez (26)

RBI:  Yordan Alvarez (60)

Stolen Bases:  Cam Smith (9)

Wins:  Spencer Arrighetti (7)

Saves:  Josh Hader (8)

ERA:  Miguel Ullola (0.00)

Managers:

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (12th season)

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (3rd season)