Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/03/2026

Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Friday, July 3, 2026

Venue:  Daikin Park, Houston, TX

Where to Watch:  MLB TV, Apple TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -122, Astros +102; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -120, Astros +100; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rays -120, Astros +100; Over/Under:  8 runs

Tampa Bay Rays:  50-33 (1st place, AL East)

Houston Astros:  43-46 (3rd place, AL West)

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Tampa Bay Rays:  8-2 last 10

Houston Astros:  6-4 last 10

The Rays completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-0. They enter this game with a 50-33 record overall and have a road record of 19-21. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Astros on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Kansas City Royals still to be played on Thursday. The Rays won the series opener on Tuesday and the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 9th in the MLB with a .736 OPS. Ian Seymour is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Nick Martinez is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-2 with a 2.66 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 3 SO on 6 hits through 5.2 IP against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

The Astros are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Minnesota Twins 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 43-46 record overall and have a home record of 21-23. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Rays on Friday and they have Thursday off as a day of rest. Their offense ranks 12th in the MLB with a .725 OPS. Rookie pitcher Tatsuya Imai was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Spencer Arrighetti is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-4 with a 4.00 ERA this season. His team lost their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 8 earned runs, 3 homers, and 5 walks with 7 strikeouts on 5 hits through 3 innings pitched against the Detroit Tigers.

The current betting odds have the Rays listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays have looked great in their games this season with their 50-33 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL East with one of the best records in MLB. They haven't been a great road team though with their 19-21 road record this year. Meanwhile, the Astros haven't looked great in their games this season with their 43-46 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL West. They haven't looked great in their own ballpark either with their 21-23 home record this season. The Astros have been getting hot lately as they are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but the Rays have one of the best records in the league and have been rolling lately, now 8-2 in their last 10 games. The Rays are also going to have the better pitching matchup in this one and they can take advantage of that. The Rays are going with Martinez in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 7-2 with a 2.66 ERA and the team has been having a ton of success with him lately. They have won 2 games in a row now with him starting and he is coming off another great start in which he gave up 1 earned run. The Astros are going with Arrighetti in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 7-4 with a 4.00 ERA and lately he has been giving up a ton of runs. He is coming off a terrible start in which he gave up 8 earned runs, something that has been becoming a common theme for him lately, and the team has lost 3 games in a row now with him starting too. Look for the Rays to take advantage of Arrighetti not being at his best right now as the Rays continue to roll. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rays to win this game. 

Rays Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 3, 2026 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Rays 4 Astros 1.

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Tampa Bay Rays: 34-36 (-6.2 units) on the moneyline against AL West opponents. 207-200 (-5.8 units) on the moneyline in all games. 92-109 (-8.9 units) on the moneyline in road games. 7-2 UNDER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game.

Houston Astros: 44-36 (+8.5 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 143-123 (+12.9 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 10-4 (+7.9 units) on the moneyline vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%. 9-4 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose winning percentage is better than 70%.

Tampa Bay Rays:  Y. Diaz (DH) Day To Day - Shoulder. S. Matz (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Ankle. J. Heasley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Lux (LF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Scholtens (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Wrist. J. Fraley (RF) Ten Day IL - Groin. R. Pepiot (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. E. Uceta (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. S. Wilson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. M. Rodriguez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Houston Astros:  K. Teng (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Knee. C. Walker (1B) Day To Day - Back. R. Delgado (2B) Day To Day - Finger. J. Pena (SS) Ten Day IL - Calf. L. Wade Jr. (1B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. B. Shewmake (SS) Ten Day IL - Groin. C. Correa (SS) Sixty Day IL - Ankle. L. McCullers Jr. (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. B. Sousa (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. C. Javier (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. H. Wesneski (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. B. Walter (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Blanco (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“It's kind of amazing when you've got 25 other players in the dugout that are pretty much in awe, along with an entire coaching staff. That means you're doing some incredible things.” - Kevin Cash after his team’s win against the Royals in their game on Wednesday. 

“There’s a season to be played. There is an objective as a team we’re trying to accomplish. We’re looking at all those factors, and we’re putting every individual where they’re in a position to have some success, and anything could change at any minute.” - Joe Espada after his team’s loss against the Twins in their game on Wednesday. 

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Victor Mesa Jr. (L) RF

Chandler Simpson (L) LF

Cedric Mullins (L) CF

Taylor Walls (S) SS

Richie Palacios (L) 2B

Hunter Feduccia (L) C

Jose Altuve (R) 2B

Yordan Alvarez (L) DH

Isaac Paredes (R) 3B

Christian Walker (R) 1B

Cam Smith (R) RF

Taylor Trammell (L) CF

Yainer Diaz (R) C

Joey Loperfido (L) LF

Raynel Delgado (L) SS

Batting Average:  Yandy Díaz (.329)

Hits:  Yandy Díaz (100)

Home Runs:  Junior Caminero (24)

RBI:  Jonathan Aranda (58)

Stolen Bases:  Chandler Simpson (19)

Wins:  Nick Martinez (7)

Saves:  Bryan Baker (21)

ERA:  Michael Grove (0.00)

Batting Average:  LaMonte Wade (.333)

Hits:  Yordan Alvarez (100)

Home Runs:  Yordan Alvarez (26)

RBI:  Yordan Alvarez (60)

Stolen Bases:  Cam Smith (9)

Wins:  Spencer Arrighetti (7)

Saves:  Josh Hader (8)

ERA:  Miguel Ullola (0.00)

Managers:

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (12th season)

Houston Astros: Joe Espada (3rd season)