Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Preview and Odds - 08/21/2026

Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Friday, August 21, 2026

Venue:  Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD

Where to Watch:  Apple TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Rays +109, Orioles -131; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Rays +110, Orioles -130; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Rays +110, Orioles -135; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Tampa Bay Rays:  76-50 (1st place, AL East)

Baltimore Orioles:  61-66 (5th place, AL East)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Matt Fargo is on a HOT STREAK in MLB on a 10-5 MLB RUN for +$8,560 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Tampa Bay Rays:  6-4 last 10

Baltimore Orioles:  5-5 last 10

The Rays are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 76-50 record overall and have a road record of 33-28. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Orioles on Friday. Their offense ranks 6th in the MLB with a .738 OPS. Ian Seymour was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Freddy Peralta is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 5-10 with a 5.27 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 2 SO on 1 hit through 4.2 IP against the Baltimore Orioles.

The Orioles won their 4-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays 3-1. They enter this game with a 61-66 record overall and have a home record of 32-32. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Rays on Friday with the series finale of their series against the New York Yankees still to be played on Thursday. The Orioles lost the series opener of that series on Tuesday and the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 16th in the MLB with a .718 OPS. Kyle Bradish is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Trevor Rogers is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 8-8 with a 4.15 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 1 homer, and 1 walk with 6 strikeouts on 7 hits through 6 innings pitched against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The current betting odds have the Orioles listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Orioles haven't looked good in their games this season with their 61-66 record overall which has them right at the bottom of the AL East. They have looked better in their own ballpark though with their 32-32 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Rays have looked great in their games this season with their 76-50 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL East with one of the best records in MLB. They have been a good road team too with their 33-28 road record this year. The Rays were rolling over the last 2 weeks, but now they are 5-5 in their last 10 games and have hit a slump after winning 9 games in a row. The Orioles haven't looked that great themselves lately, only 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they did smack around the Rays over the weekend and can catch the Rays again here starting to slump. The Rays are going with Peralta in this one and he hasn't looked good this season. He is 5-10 with a 5.27 ERA and he has been giving up a ton of runs all year. The team has had more success with him lately, winning 3 of their last 4 games with him starting, and he only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start too, but that hasn't been a common theme for him and even when he had a good start against the Orioles, the bullpen still let him down. The Orioles are going with Rogers in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 8-8 with a 4.15 ERA and has been in a groove lately. He is coming off another good start in which he gave up 2 earned runs and the team has won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting too. The Orioles are still fighting to stay in the Wild Card race, so look for them to bring their best effort in this series against a team that they just took 3 out of 4 games against in a road series over the weekend. The best way to place a bet here is on the Orioles to win this game. 

Rays Orioles Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, August 21, 2026 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Orioles 4 Rays 3.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks, best bets, and expert baseball picks today.  And if you enjoyed this Tampa Bay Rays Baltimore Orioles prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and previews.

Tampa Bay Rays: 130-122 (+5.4 units) on the moneyline when the money line is +125 to -125. 121-89 (+10.9 units) on the moneyline when playing against a team with a losing record. 121-100 (+3.8 units) on the moneyline vs. an AL team with a slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season. 30-17 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5.

Baltimore Orioles: 227-226 (-22.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 115-112 (-29.9 units) on the moneyline in home games. 127-112 (-31.4 units) on the moneyline as a favorite of -110 or higher. 33-22 UNDER at home when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%).

Tampa Bay Rays:  V. Mesa Jr. (RF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. G. Jax (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. B. Williamson (2B) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Fraley (RF) Sixty Day IL - Groin. C. Sulser (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. J. Heasley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Lux (LF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. R. Pepiot (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. E. Uceta (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. M. Rodriguez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Baltimore Orioles:  R. Mountcastle (1B) Sixty Day IL - Foot. B. Alexander (3B) Ten Day IL - Hand. K. Akin (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. R. Helsley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. Z. Eflin (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Westburg (3B) Sixty Day IL - UCL. F. Bautista (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Selby (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

“Every one counts, right? I'm sure we're getting close to people starting to look at standings, but if we win, it doesn't matter. We put ourselves in that position. When we take care of business on our end, it's a good day -- and that's all that matters.” - Drew Rasmussen after their win against the Blue Jays in their game on Wednesday.

“You definitely never know what they’re going to rule, but I was really surprised that it came back 'stands.' The first thing is, on the dugout iPads, there’s ball-tracking data with the field that the players see, so it’s really tough to have that come back as stands and have that visual in the dugout, as well. It’s not why we lost the game. But I think that moment was a big moment, especially [because] it takes a home run from us, and Pete, as well. I had a pretty good look at it. It’s tough for the umpire down the third-base line, the way he’s looking and going over the foul pole. But I think when it goes to review and you look at all the angles and video, and especially the ball-tracking data, yeah, pretty disappointing.” - Craig Albernaz after his team’s loss against the Yankees in their game on Wednesday.

Chandler Simpson (L) LF

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Cedric Mullins (L) CF

Jonny DeLuca (R) RF

Richie Palacios (L) 2B

Jorge Mateo (R) SS

Nick Fortes (R) C

Jackson Holliday (L) 2B

Pete Alonso (R) DH

Gunnar Henderson (L) SS

Samuel Basallo (L) 1B

Coby Mayo (R) 3B

Dylan Beavers (L) LF

Leody Taveras (S) RF

Colton Cowser (L) CF

Carlos Narváez (R) C

Batting Average:  Chandler Simpson (.309)

Hits:  Yandy Díaz (146)

Home Runs:  Junior Caminero (35)

RBI:  Junior Caminero (80)

Stolen Bases:  Chandler Simpson (35)

Wins:  Drew Rasmussen (13)

Saves:  Bryan Baker (36)

ERA:  Bryan Baker (1.44)

Batting Average:  Blaze Alexander (.312)

Hits:  Pete Alonso (127)

Home Runs:  Pete Alonso (29)

RBI:  Pete Alonso (82)

Stolen Bases:  Leody Taveras (10)

Wins:  Brandon Young (9)

Saves:  Ryan Helsley (8)

ERA:  Jose Espada (0.00)

Managers:

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (12th season)

Baltimore Orioles: Craig Albernaz (1st season)