Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/01/2026

Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Friday, May 1, 2026

Venue:  Bell Centre, Montréal, QC

Where to Watch:  ESPN2

DraftKings:  Moneyline:  Lightning -115, Canadiens -105; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Bet365:  Moneyline:  Lightning -115, Canadiens -105; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

BetMGM:  Moneyline:  Lightning -115, Canadiens -105; Over/Under:  5.5 goals

Tampa Bay Lightning:  50-26-6 (2nd place, Atlantic Division)

Montreal Canadiens:  48-24-10 (3rd place, Atlantic Division)

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Tampa Bay Lightning:  4-4-2 last 10

Montreal Canadiens:  6-3-1 last 10

The Lightning are entering the playoffs with 106 points, a 50-26-6 record overall, and they were 24-12-5 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a loss against the Montreal Canadiens in their last game, losing that one at home 3-2. Dominic James and Jake Guentzel each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Gage Goncalves and Yanni Gourde each led the team in assists with 1 while Nikita Kucherov led the team in shots on net in that game with 8. Andrei Vasilevskiy was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 3 goals on 24 shots with 21 saves and a .875 sv percentage. Their offense has scored 290 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 231 goals against them allowing 2.8 goals per game.

The Canadiens are entering the playoffs with 106 points, a 48-24-10 record overall, and they were 24-15-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game off a win against the Tampa Bay Lightning in their last game, winning that one on the road 3-2. Alexandre Texier, Brendan Gallagher, and Kirby Dach each scored 1 goal for them in that one. Alex Newhook, Kaiden Guhle, Lane Hutson, Nick Suzuki, and Zachary Bolduc each led the team in assists with 1 while Ivan Demidov, Jake Evans, and Juraj Slafkovský each led the team in shots on net in that game with 3. Jakub Dobeš was the starting goalie in that game and he allowed 2 goals on 40 shots with 38 saves and a .950 save percentage. Their offense has scored 283 goals this season averaging 3.5 goals per game and their defense has allowed their opponents to score 256 goals against them allowing 3.1 goals per game.

The current betting odds have the Lightning listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Canadiens have looked good in their games this season with their 48-24-10 record overall which had them in the top half of their division in the East. They have looked good on home ice too with their 24-15-2 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Lightning have looked good in their games this season with their 50-26-6 record overall which had them right near the top of their division in the East. They have been a good road team too with their 24-12-5 road record this year. This is game 6 of a 7-game series between the 2nd seeded Lightning and the 3rd seeded Canadiens in the Atlantic for the 1st round of the NHL playoffs. The Canadiens have a 3-2 series lead after winning game 5 by a score of 3-2. The Canadiens have looked great in this series and they have taken the series lead at every turn, but the Lightning have answered back every time. Neither team has been able to string together 2 wins in a row in this series and it is likely that won't happen in this one either. The Canadiens have looked good on home ice this year, but the Lightning did win the last game there in this series and the Lightning have been a good road team this season too. They are going to have an answer to that tight loss at home and they will bring their best effort with their backs against the wall now. The Lightning are going to be playing this game with some desperation, but they also have a lot more playoff experience to guide them through this game too. The Lightning are still the more talented team in this series with the playoff experience on their side too, so look for them to once again answer a loss in this series with a win and get back on level terms with a chance to end it back at home in game 7. The best way to place a bet here is on the Lightning to win this game. 

Lightning Canadiens Prediction:  Our NHL Pick for Friday, May 1, 2026 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Lightning 3 Canadiens 1.

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Tampa Bay Lightning: 146-115 (-12.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 4-11 (-8.6 units) on the moneyline in the first round of the playoffs. 139-109 (-10 units) on the moneyline against mistake free teams - opponents average 4 power plays/game or less. 25-12 UNDER against poor offensive teams - averaging <=26.5 shots on goal per game or less.

Montreal Canadiens: 121-134 (+9.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 65-62 (+5.1 units) on the moneyline in home games. 61-65 (+8.7 units) on the moneyline after playing a road game. 7-3 UNDER in the first round of the playoffs.

Tampa Bay Lightning:  N. Paul (LW) Day To Day - Illness. C. D'Astous (D) Day To Day - Undisclosed. P. Holmberg (RW) Out - Upper-Body. V. Hedman (D) Out - Personal. 

Montreal Canadiens:  N. Dobson (D) Out - Thumb. P. Laine (RW) Out - Abdomen.

"We just lost a Game 5, so there's lots going on in my head right now. Did I think we had our best game? We clearly did not. Is it really disappointing to come home and lose? It is. This is something we should take a ton of pride in and dig our heels in and not accept." - Jon Cooper after his team’s loss against the Canadiens in the 5th game of this series on Wednesday. 

"It's not an easy team to go that long 5-on-6 (against) and I thought we managed it pretty well. It wasn't one thing I think, it was collectively we found a way to keep it out of our net." - Martin St Louis after his team’s win against the Lightning in game 5 of this series on Wednesday. 

LW Brandon Hagel

C Brayden Point

RW Nikita Kucherov

LD Janis Jérôme Moser

RD Darren Raddysh

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

LW Cole Caufield

C Nick Suzuki

RW Juraj Slafkovský

LD Mike Matheson

RD Alexandre Carrier

G Jakub Dobes

Points: Nikita Kucherov (130)

Goals: Nikita Kucherov (44)

Assists: Nikita Kucherov (86)

GAA: Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.31)

Points: Nick Suzuki (101)

Goals: Cole Caufield (51)

Assists: Nick Suzuki (72)

GAA: Jacob Fowler (2.43)

Coaches:

Tampa Bay Lightning: Jon Cooper (14th season)

Montreal Canadiens: Martin St. Louis (5th season)