by Rod Pearson
Tuesday, Oct 06, 2026
Game Time: 8:15 pm ET, Thursday, October 8, 2026
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Where to Watch: Prime Video
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Buccaneers +8.5, Cowboys -8.5; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Buccaneers +8, Cowboys -8; Over/Under: 47.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Buccaneers +8, Cowboys -8; Over/Under: 47.5 points
Season Record
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-4 (4th place, NFC South)
Dallas Cowboys: 2-2 (3rd place, NFC East)
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Recent Form
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: lost their last game at home against the Green Bay Packers 17-14.
Dallas Cowboys: won their last game on the road against the Houston Texans 34-30.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Preview and Analysis
The Buccaneers are entering this game with a 0-4 record overall and they have a 0-0 record in their divisional games too. They are 0-3 in their home games, 0-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against the Green Bay Packers 17-14. Jalon Daniels was the starting QB and he completed 19/27 passes for 148 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Bucky Irving led the team in rushing yards with 61. Cade Otton led the receivers with 37 receiving yards on 4 receptions. Josiah Trotter led the defense in that game with 9 solo tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack for them. Jacob Parrish came away with the only interception for them in that one.
The Cowboys are entering this game with a 2-2 record overall and they have a 1-1 record in their divisional games too. They are 1-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-1 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against the Houston Texans 34-30. Dak Prescott was the starting QB and he completed 32/45 passes for 335 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Javonte Williams led the team in rushing yards with 62 and 3 TDs. CeeDee Lamb led the receivers with 189 receiving yards on 17 receptions and 1 TD. Malik Hooker and Caleb Downs each led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles while Quinnen Williams and Rashan Gary each led the defense in sacks with 1. No one on the defense came away with an interception for them in that one.
Buccaneers vs Cowboys Prediction
The current betting odds have the Cowboys listed as an 8.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Cowboys haven't looked great in their games this season with their 2-2 record overall, but that record has them right in the middle of the NFC East. They have looked better on their home field too with their 1-0 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have looked terrible in their games this season with their 0-4 record overall which has them right at the bottom of the NFC South. They haven't been a good road team either with their 0-1 road record this year. The Buccaneers have been on a bad losing streak going back to last year and it doesn't look like things are going to get any better. They choked away the division and lost a lot of talent in the off-season while also bringing back the head coach who was a big part of that. Now the team is off to a disaster start and is missing their starting QB too. They are coming off a 17-14 loss to the Packers in their last one and their offense has had a lot of trouble this year, even when Mayfield has been playing. The Cowboys are coming off a 34-30 road win over the Texans and even though they won that game against a winless team, that is still one of the best defenses in the NFL. The Cowboys shredded that defense and have proven that they once again have one of the best offenses in the NFL. The defense still hasn't looked great in their games, but they will play better against a struggling Bucs offense that doesn't have their starting QB. The Cowboys also have the talent on offense to put up a ton of points at home and put this game way out of reach for that Bucs offense. The best way to place a bet here is on the Cowboys to cover the spread in this game.
Buccaneers Cowboys Prediction: Our NFL Pick for Thursday, October 8, 2026 (8:15 pm ET start time) is Cowboys 41 Buccaneers 17.
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NFL Betting Trends
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 0-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 6-11 ATS after playing a game at home. 3-8 ATS vs. bad defensive teams who give up 24 or more points/game. 16-9 OVER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points. 9-3 OVER versus poor rushing defenses - allowing 4.5 rushing yards/carry or more.
Dallas Cowboys: 5-1 ATS when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. <=25%). 3-0 ATS versus good rushing defenses - allowing 90 rushing yards/game or less. 27-21 ATS against teams with a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse. 11-3 OVER as a favorite. 8-0 OVER off an upset win as an underdog.
Key Injuries
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A. Winfield Jr. (S) Injured - Rib. B. Morrison (CB) Injured - Quad. B. Mayfield (QB) Injured - Right Thumb. K. Kieft (TE) Injured - Elbow. S. Dennis (LB) Injured - Ankle. R. Bain Jr. (LB) Injured - Groin. J. Trotter (LB) Injured - Knee.
Dallas Cowboys: D. Shelton (OT) Injured - Hamstring. T. Smith (OG) Injured - Thumb. A. Clark (S) Injured - Ankle. T. Goodson (RB) Injured - Ankle. C. Lamb (WR) Injured - Thigh. J. Porter Jr. (CB) Injured - Ankle. C. Durant (CB) Injured - Hamstring. D. Overshown (LB) Injured - Hamstring. M. Hooker (S) Injured - Forearm. J. Houston (LB) Injured - Shoulder.
Notable Quotes
“I’m the head coach. I can do more. I can always do more. I’ll always take the blame. We’re gonna fight, we’re gonna stick together and we’re gonna figure this thing out. And I’ll lead them to that. It’s my job.” - Todd Bowles after his team’s loss against the Packers in their last game.
“I knew this one was a big one for him. I know how much Houston means to him and his family means to him. And he put on a show.” - Brian Schottenheimer after his team’s win against the Texans in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
WR Hurst III, Ted
WR Egbuka, Emeka
WR Godwin Jr., Chris
TE Otton, Cade
QB Daniels, Jalon
RB Irving, Bucky
Dallas Cowboys
WR Pickens, George
WR Lamb, CeeDee
WR Flournoy, Ryan
TE Ferguson, Jake
QB Prescott, Dak
RB Williams, Javonte
FB Luepke, Hunter
Statistical Leaders
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Passing: Baker Mayfield (615)
Rushing: Bucky Irving (241)
Receiving: Cade Otton (157)
Touchdowns: Bucky Irving (1)
Dallas Cowboys
Passing: Dak Prescott (1,065)
Rushing: Javonte Williams (231)
Receiving: CeeDee Lamb (498)
Touchdowns: Javonte Williams (6)
Coaches:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Todd Bowles (5th season)
Dallas Cowboys: Brian Schottenheimer (2nd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
