by Rod Pearson
Monday, Oct 06, 2025
Game Time: 7:30 pm ET, Friday, October 10, 2025
Venue: DATCU Stadium, Denton, TX
Where to Watch: ESPN2
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: USF -1.5, UNT +1.5; Over/Under: 67.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: USF -1, UNT +1; Over/Under: 67.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: USF -1, UNT +1; Over/Under: 67.5 points
Season Record
South Florida Bulls: 4-1 (1-0) (4th place, American)
North Texas Mean Green: 5-0 (1-0) (3rd place, American)
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Recent Form
South Florida Bulls: won their last game at home against the Charlotte 49ers 54-26.
North Texas Mean Green: won their last game at home against the South Alabama Jaguars 36-22.
South Florida Bulls vs North Texas Mean Green Preview and Analysis
South Florida is entering this game with a 4-1 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 1-1 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They won their last game against Charlotte 54-26. Byrum Brown was the starting QB and he completed 19/34 passes for 211 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Byrum Brown led the team in rushing yards with 162 and 1 TD. Jeremiah Koger led the receivers with 75 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Jhalyn Shuler led the defense in that game with 4 solo tackles and 6 assisted tackles while Jaelen Stokes led the defense in sacks with 1. Jarvis Lee and D.J. Harris each came away with 1 interception for them in that one.
North Texas is entering this game with a 5-0 record overall and they have a 1-0 record in their conference games too. They are 3-0 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They won their last game against South Alabama 36-22. Drew Mestemaker was the starting QB and he completed 14/26 passes for 234 passing yards, 1 touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Caleb Hawkins led the team in rushing yards with 140 and 2 TDs. Caleb Hawkins led the receivers with 78 receiving yards on 2 receptions and 1 TD. Shane Whitter led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 7 assisted tackles while Da'Veawn Armstead and Zhaiylen Scott each led the defense in sacks with 1. Ethan Wesloski came away with the only interception for them in that one.
South Florida vs North Texas Prediction
The current betting odds have North Texas listed as a 1.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. North Texas has looked great in their games this season with their 5-0 record overall which has them right near the top of the American Conference. They have quickly emerged as a threat in this conference and they are in a great situation here, coming out of their bye week with an extra week to prepare. Meanwhile, South Florida has looked great in their games this season with their 4-1 record overall and their 1-0 conference record which has them right near the top of the American Conference. Their only loss was against one of the best teams in the nation, Miami-FL, and they have some good wins under their belt too. They are off a 54-26 win over Charlotte in their last one and their offense looked great in that one as it has all season, but their defense didn't look great. They gave up quite a few points to a bad Charlotte offense and that could be a big issue in this one with the way that North Texas offense has been rolling. North Texas also has the home advantage with their extra week of rest and they are going to bring their best effort for a ranked team in their conference. This game is going to have some major implications for that group of 5 playoff spot at the end of the season, but North Texas is in the better situation here and has a chance to make a statement in the conference. The best way to place a bet here is on North Texas to cover the spread in this game.
South Florida North Texas Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, October 10, 2025 (7:30 pm ET start time) is North Texas 34 South Florida 31.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
South Florida Bulls: 3-6 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 63. 1-5 ATS vesus good rushing teams - averaging 4.75 rushing yards/carry or more. 2-5 ATS vs. good offensive teams - scoring 31 or more points/game. 9-5 OVER in road lined games. 6-2 OVER off a win against a conference rival.
North Texas Mean Green: 7-3 ATS as a home favorite. 11-5 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70. 6-3 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game. 4-1 OVER as a home favorite of 7 points or less. 5-2 OVER off a home win.
Key Injuries
South Florida Bulls: T. Kinkle (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. C. Norton (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed. G. Otten (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Silvera (CB) Questionable - Undisclosed. M. Williams II (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. J. Alexis (WR) Questionable - Undisclosed. T. Morman (OG) Questionable - Undisclosed. Z. Hamilton (LB) Questionable - Undisclosed. D. Butler (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed.
North Texas Mean Green: C. Vaughn (TE) Questionable - Undisclosed. B. Knox (DL) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Sibley (RB) Questionable - Undisclosed.
Notable Quotes
“I was really disappointed. You could justify it however you want, but I think if you justify it, you’re making excuses, and that’s the fastest way to get beat.” - Alex Golesh after his team’s win against Charlotte in their last game.
"After last week's game at Army, my 10-year-old son said, 'How many times did you give it to him?' I said 13, and he said, 'How many TDs did he have?' I said four. He said, 'Dad you should probably give it to him a little more.'" - Eric Morris after his team’s win against USA in their last game.
Starting Lineups
South Florida Bulls
WR Singleton, Keshaun
WR Reuben, Mudia
WR Nimrod, Chas
TE Sullivan, Wyatt
QB Brown, Byrum
RB Norton, Cartevious
North Texas Mean Green
WR Sides, Landon
WR Evans, Simeon
WR Young, Wyatt
WR Coleman, Miles
TE Williams III, Tre
QB Mestemaker, Drew
RB McGill II, Makenzie
Statistical Leaders
South Florida Bulls
Passing: Byrum Brown (1,194)
Rushing: Byrum Brown (282)
Receiving: Chas Nimrod (421)
Touchdowns: Byrum Brown (3)
North Texas Mean Green
Passing: Drew Mestemaker (1,247)
Rushing: Makenzie McGill II (318)
Receiving: Miles Coleman (219)
Touchdowns: Caleb Hawkins (8)
Coaches:
South Florida Bulls: Alex Golesh (3rd season)
North Texas Mean Green: Eric Morris (3rd season)
Rod Pearson
About the Author:
Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life. He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years. In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective. Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.
