South Florida Bulls vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/19/2026

Game Time: 1:30 pm ET, Thursday, March 19, 2026

Venue:  KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  USF +5.5, Louisville -5.5; Over/Under:  165.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  USF +5.5, Louisville -5.5; Over/Under:  165.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  USF +5.5, Louisville -5.5; Over/Under:  165.5 points

South Florida Bulls:  25-8 (15-3) (1st place, American)

Louisville Cardinals:  23-10 (11-7) (6th place, ACC)

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South Florida Bulls:  5-0  last 5

Louisville Cardinals:  3-2  last 5

South Florida is entering this game with a 25-8 record overall, a 15-3 record in conference games, and they are 3-3 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Wichita State Shockers in their last game. Wes Enis led the team in points in that game with 19 while Izaiyah Nelson was next on the team with 13. CJ Brown and Gavin Hightower each led the team in assists with 3 in that game while Isaiah Jones led the team in rebounds with 7. They were 37.7% from the field, 27.3% from 3-point range, and 78.3% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 88.3 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 76.2 PPG against them. South Florida has an ATS record of 18-14 this season and their O/U record is 14-18.

Louisville is entering this game with a 23-10 record overall, an 11-7 conference record, and they are 4-1 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Miami Hurricanes in their last game. Ryan Conwell led the team in points in that game with 22 while J'Vonne Hadley was next on the team with 19. Adrian Wooley led the team in assists with 4 in that game while Ryan Conwell led the team in rebounds with 9. They were 48.2% from the field, 25% from 3-point range, and 76.5% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 84.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 72.2 PPG against them. Louisville has an ATS record of 16-17 this season and their O/U record is 14-19.

The current betting odds have Louisville listed as a 5.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Louisville has looked good in their games this season with their 23-10 record overall and their 11-7 conference record which had them in the top half of the ACC. They have looked great in neutral site games too with their 4-1 record in those. Meanwhile, South Florida has looked really good in their games this season with their 25-8 record overall and their 15-3 conference record which had them right at the top of the American Conference. They haven't looked great in neutral site games though with their 3-3 record in those. South Florida won the American Conference Tournament to earn this bid and they are entering this NCAA Tournament with a ton of momentum on their side. They have been rolling lately with 11 wins in a row now, but they also didn't play in a tough conference. The American looked like there was going to be some good teams at the start of the year, but it was definitely a down year for them with South Florida steamrolling over the whole conference. They haven't seen a lot of tests this season from a team like Louisville and the few they had in the preseason were not great results. Louisville hasn't looked great lately, coming off a loss to Miami in their last one and going 3-2 in their last 5 games, but they should be getting a starter back and that is going to be a huge boost for them. Louisville didn't look great to end the regular season in the ACC, but they still have a lot more talent to lean on and this is a big step up for a team like South Florida. The best way to place a bet here is on Louisville to cover the spread in this game. 

South Florida Louisville Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Thursday, March 19, 2026 (1:30 pm ET start time) is Louisville 85 South Florida 75.

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South Florida Bulls: 11-5 ATS off a win against a conference rival. 4-1 ATS after 3 or more consecutive unders. 20-9 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins. 19-9 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. 25-14 UNDER off a win against a conference rival.

Louisville Cardinals: 10-16 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. 4-9 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 10-17 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing 14 turnovers/game or less. 11-2 UNDER versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game. 4-1 UNDER as a neutral court favorite or pick.

South Florida Bulls:  D. Green (F) Out - Achilles. X. Brown (G) Out - Undisclosed.

Louisville Cardinals:  M. Brown Jr. (G) Questionable - Back.

“We just have 15 dudes that have all been underdogs. They’ve all been looked over their entire careers. So being able to go to March Madness and play teams that all (over)looked us? It’s a proving point. Now, we have an even bigger chip on our shoulders. We’re going to show them why y’all should have recruited us.” - Izaiyah Nelson on the team entering the NCAA Tournament. 

"He made great progress last week, and we'll see how the next couple days of practice go." - Pat Kelsey on the injury to Mikel Brown Jr.

C. Brown 

W. Enis 

I. Nelson 

J. Omojafo 

J. Pinion

M. Brown 

R. Conwell 

S. Fru 

J. Hadley 

I. McKneely

PPG: Wes Enis (16.8)

APG: CJ Brown (4.8)

Reb/G: Izaiyah Nelson (9.6)

PPG: Ryan Conwell (18.7)

APG: Mikel Brown Jr. (4.7)

Reb/G: Sananda Fru (6)

Coaches:

South Florida Bulls: Bryan Hodgson (1st season)

Louisville Cardinals: Pat Kelsey (2nd season)