SMU Mustangs vs Louisville Cardinals Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 01/31/2026

Game Time: 2:00 pm ET, Saturday, January 31, 2026

Venue:  KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  SMU +8.5, Louisville -8.5; Over/Under:  165.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  SMU +8.5, Louisville -8.5; Over/Under:  165.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  SMU +8.5, Louisville -8.5; Over/Under:  165.5 points

SMU Mustangs:  15-5 (4-3) (6th place, ACC)

Louisville Cardinals:  14-6 (4-4) (9th place, ACC)

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SMU Mustangs:  3-2  last 5

Louisville Cardinals:  3-2  last 5

SMU is entering this game with a 15-5 record overall, a 4-3 record in conference games, and they are 2-3 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a win against the Florida State Seminoles in their last game. Jaron Pierre Jr. led the team in points in that game with 28 while B.J. Edwards was next on the team with 19. Kevin Miller led the team in assists with 6 in that game while Samet Yigitoglu led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 44.4% from the field, 33.3% from 3-point range, and 73.9% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 87.2 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 77 PPG against them. SMU has an ATS record of 9-10-1 this season and their O/U record is 11-9.

Louisville is entering this game with a 14-6 record overall, a 4-4 conference record, and they are 10-2 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Duke Blue Devils in their last game. Ryan Conwell led the team in points in that game with 18 while J'Vonne Hadley was next on the team with 11. Mikel Brown Jr. led the team in assists with 4 in that game while J'Vonne Hadley led the team in rebounds with 5. They were 29.6% from the field, 32.4% from 3-point range, and 69.2% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 86 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 70.3 PPG against them. Louisville has an ATS record of 11-9 this season and their O/U record is 8-12.

The current betting odds have SMU listed as an 8.5 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. SMU has looked good in their games this season with their 15-5 record overall and their 4-3 conference record which has them in the top half of the ACC. They haven't been a great road team though with their 2-3 road record this year. Meanwhile, Louisville has looked good in their games this season with their 14-6 record overall, but their 4-4 conference record has them right in the middle of the ACC. They have looked great on their home court though with their 10-2 home record this season. Louisville has been a solid team all season and had a lot of high hopes to start the year, but they have struggled a lot more since starting conference play and they haven't looked good against elite teams either. They are 3-2 in their last 5 games and they are off a terrible loss to Duke by double digits in their last one. They let that game get away from them in a hurry and now they are back at home where they have looked a lot better this season, but SMU hasn't been a bad team this year. Louisville enters this game as the ranked team, but SMU has gone toe-to-toe with some good teams in the ACC and they aren't just going to roll over in this game. They are also 3-2 in their last 5 games and they have some momentum on their side with 2 wins in a row now. SMU has losses to some of the top opponents in the ACC too, losing to Duke, Virginia, and Clemson, and they haven't really been getting blown out in these games either. Louisville will be looking to bounce back from that bad loss, but SMU is going to put up a good fight so look for SMU to keep this a tighter game. The best way to place a bet here is on SMU to cover the spread in this game. 

SMU Louisville Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Saturday, January 31, 2026 (2:00 pm ET start time) is Louisville 78 SMU 73.

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SMU Mustangs: 7-4 ATS after playing a home game. 3-1 ATS as a road underdog or pick. 3-1 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%). 11-5 UNDER off a home win against a conference rival. 19-9 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%).

Louisville Cardinals: 19-26 ATS in all home games. 3-8 ATS after a loss by 15 points or more. 3-7 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival. 22-13 UNDER as a home favorite or pick. 6-2 UNDER in a home game where the total is 160 to 169.5.

SMU Mustangs:  None.

Louisville Cardinals:  S. Legg (G) Questionable - Undisclosed. K. Rooths (F) Questionable - Illness.

“The advantage of having experienced players, especially three guards, they’ve been there many games and our team has been very good in close games this year. The margin of error is so small in this league, especially when you get into January and February league play. That’s one possession, two possessions most games.” - Andy Enfield after his team’s win against FSU in their last game. 

“We got our butt kicked. Every metric that you would look at speaks to a butt-kicking. All we can do is dust ourselves off, run back to work, and use this as something that helps us get better.” - Pat Kelsey after his team’s loss against Duke in their last game. 

B. Edwards 

K. Miller 

J. Pierre 

C. Washington 

S. Yigitoglu

M. Brown 

R. Conwell 

S. Fru 

J. Hadley 

I. McKneely

PPG: Boopie Miller (19.4)

APG: Boopie Miller (6.7)

Reb/G: Samet Yigitoglu (8.1)

PPG: Ryan Conwell (19.4)

APG: Mikel Brown Jr. (5.1)

Reb/G: Sananda Fru (6.9)

Coaches:

SMU Mustangs: Andy Enfield (2nd season)

Louisville Cardinals: Pat Kelsey (2nd season)