Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/11/2026

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Saturday, July 11, 2026

Venue:  Tropicana Field, Petersburg, FL

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mariners -105, Rays -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mariners -105, Rays -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mariners -105, Rays -115; Over/Under:  7.5 runs

Seattle Mariners:  47-47 (2nd place, AL West)

Tampa Bay Rays:  54-37 (1st place, AL East)

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Seattle Mariners:  5-5 last 10

Tampa Bay Rays:  6-4 last 10

The Mariners are entering this series off a loss and got swept in their 3-game series against the Miami Marlins 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 47-47 record overall and have a road record of 20-27. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Rays on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 25th in the MLB with a .691 OPS. Luis Castillo is their starting pitcher on Friday while Logan Gilbert is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 7-5 with a 3.19 ERA this season. His team won 7 of their last 8 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 0 BB with 7 SO on 1 hit through 7.1 IP against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Rays are entering this series off a loss and split their 4-game series against the New York Yankees 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 54-37 record overall and have a home record of 33-14. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Mariners on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 10th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Nick Martinez is their starting pitcher on Friday while Griffin Jax is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 4-6 with a 3.60 ERA this season. His team won 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 3 earned runs, 1 homer, and 2 walks with 10 strikeouts on 1 hit through 5 innings pitched against the New York Yankees.

The current betting odds have the Mariners listed as a slight underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays have looked great in their games this season with their 54-37 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL East with one of the best records in MLB. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 33-14 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Mariners have looked good in their games this season with their 47-47 record overall which has them right near top of the AL West. They haven't been a good road team though with their 20-27 road record this year. The Rays are 6-4 in their last 10 games and they have looked better than the Mariners have lately, the Mariners going 5-5 in their last 10 games, but they are going to have the better pitching matchup in this one and they can take advantage of that. The Mariners are going with Gilbert in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 7-5 with a 3.19 ERA and the team has been having a ton of success with him lately. They have won 7 of their last 8 games with him starting and he is coming off another great start in which he gave up no runs, something that has been a common theme for him this year. The Rays are going with Jax in this one and he has looked good this season. He is 4-6 with a 3.60 ERA, but lately he has been giving up more runs and he isn't really a true starter either. The team has won 3 of their last 4 games with him starting, but he did give up 3 earned runs in his last start and the Mariners are going to be desperate to stop the bleeding in this series after getting swept by the Marlins in their last series. The Mariners have also slipped out of 1st place in their division now, but this is a good opportunity for them to get back on track with one of their best on the mound. The best way to place a bet here is on the Mariners to win this game. 

Mariners Rays Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, July 11, 2026 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Mariners 4 Rays 2.

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Seattle Mariners: 34-52 (-22.9 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 228-203 (-13.5 units) on the moneyline in all games. 98-117 (-30.6 units) on the moneyline in road games. 73-45 OVER on the road when the money line is +125 to -125.

Tampa Bay Rays: 112-80 (+16.7 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 41-30 (+5 units) on the moneyline at home when the total is 7 to 7.5. 151-145 (+6.4 units) on the moneyline vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or less. 24-15 OVER when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Seattle Mariners:  J. Rodriguez (CF) Seven Day IL - Head. R. Refsnyder (DH) Ten Day IL - Knee. W. Wilson (3B) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. M. Brash (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. C. Criswell (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. B. Donovan (3B) Ten Day IL - Groin. C. Vargas (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. L. Evans (SP) Sixty Day IL - Arm.

Tampa Bay Rays:  S. Matz (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Ankle. J. Heasley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Lux (LF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Scholtens (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Wrist. J. Fraley (RF) Ten Day IL - Groin. R. Pepiot (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. E. Uceta (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. S. Wilson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. M. Rodriguez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Not the way we wanted to end the series here. Tough one again today. We had some opportunities early in the ballgame, just were not able to capitalize on them. We had some traffic early. We had a chance to get their starter out of the game early. Just were not able to convert those into runs.” - Dan Wilson after his team’s loss against the Marlins in their game on Thursday.

“We just came up a little bit short. Certainly, when you're playing four games against a team that you're neck and neck in the division with, you want to see if you can pick up a game. But if you're not going to pick up one, you don't want to lose any.” - Kevin Cash after his team’s loss against the Yankees in their game on Thursday.

J.P. Crawford (L) 3B

Randy Arozarena (R) LF

Dominic Canzone (L) DH

Cal Raleigh (S) C

Josh Naylor (L) 1B

Luke Raley (L) RF

Cole Young (L) 2B

Victor Robles (R) CF

Colt Emerson (L) SS

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Victor Mesa Jr. (L) CF

Ryan Vilade (R) RF

Chandler Simpson (L) LF

Ben Williamson (R) 2B

Taylor Walls (S) SS

Nick Fortes (R) C

Batting Average:  Randy Arozarena (.287)

Hits:  Randy Arozarena (90)

Home Runs:  Dominic Canzone (15)

RBI:  Cole Young (42)

Stolen Bases:  Randy Arozarena (19)

Wins:  George Kirby (7)

Saves:  Andrés Muñoz (16)

ERA:  Matt Brash (0.54)

Batting Average:  Yandy Díaz (.326)

Hits:  Yandy Díaz (108)

Home Runs:  Junior Caminero (27)

RBI:  Jonathan Aranda (61)

Stolen Bases:  Chandler Simpson (22)

Wins:  Shane McClanahan (8)

Saves:  Bryan Baker (25)

ERA:  Michael Grove (0.00)

Managers:

Seattle Mariners: Dan Wilson (3rd season)

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (12th season)