Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/10/2026

Game Time: 7:10 pm ET, Friday, July 10, 2026

Venue:  Tropicana Field, Petersburg, FL

Where to Watch:  ESPN Unlimited, MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Mariners -108, Rays -112; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Mariners -110, Rays -110; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Mariners -110, Rays -110; Over/Under:  8 runs

Seattle Mariners:  47-46 (1st place, AL West)

Tampa Bay Rays:  54-37 (1st place, AL East)

Do not miss out on our expert handicapper analysis! Wayne Root is on a HOT STREAK in MLB on a 29-14 MLB RUN for +$13,550 PROFIT! Make sure you check out his picks and many more from the expert handicappers featured in the Shop Picks section.

Seattle Mariners:  5-5 last 10

Tampa Bay Rays:  6-4 last 10

The Mariners won their 3-game series against the Toronto Blue Jays 2-1. They enter this game with a 47-46 record overall and have a road record of 20-26. This is the series opener of a 3-game series with the Rays on Friday with the series finale of their series against the Miami Marlins still to be played on Thursday. The Mariners lost the series opener on Tuesday and the 2nd game on Wednesday. Their offense ranks 25th in the MLB with a .690 OPS. Bryce Miller is their starting pitcher on Thursday while Luis Castillo is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 3-7 with a 4.79 ERA this season. His team lost 4 of their last 5 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 2 ER, 0 HR, and 1 BB with 4 SO on 5 hits through 6 IP against the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Rays are entering this series off a loss and split their 4-game series against the New York Yankees 2-2 in their last series. They enter this game with a 54-37 record overall and have a home record of 33-14. This is the 1st game of a 3-game series with the Mariners on Friday. Their offense ranks 11th in the MLB with a .730 OPS. Drew Rasmussen was their starting pitcher on Thursday while Nick Martinez is making his start in this game on Friday. He is 7-2 with a 2.61 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 1 homer, and 1 walk with 3 strikeouts on 3 hits through 5.1 innings pitched against the Houston Astros.

The current betting odds have the Rays listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Rays have looked great in their games this season with their 54-37 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL East with one of the best records in MLB. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 33-14 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Mariners have looked good in their games this season with their 47-46 record overall which has them right at the top of the AL West. They haven't been a good road team though with their 20-26 road record this year. The Mariners have been really up and down all season and lately they haven't looked that great. They just lost their last series to the Marlins and they are 5-5 in their last 10 games now. The Rays have looked a lot better lately though, now 6-4 in their last 10 games, and they have the better pitching matchup here. The Rays are going with Martinez in this one and he has looked great this season. He is 7-2 with a 2.61 ERA and he hasn't been giving up many runs all year. He is coming off another great start in which he gave up 1 earned run which has been a common theme for him, and the team has also won 3 games in a row now with him starting. The Mariners are going with Castillo in this one and he hasn't looked great this season. He is 3-7 with a 4.79 ERA and the team hasn't been having a ton of success with him lately. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last start, but that hasn't been a common theme for him this year and the team has still lost 4 of their last 5 games with him starting too. The Rays can take advantage of this pitching matchup at home where they have looked so much better this season and they also have the better offense to help out. The best way to place a bet here is on the Rays to win this game. 

Mariners Rays Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, July 10, 2026 (7:10 pm ET start time) is Rays 4 Mariners 1.

Don't miss our champion handicappers free picks, best bets, and expert baseball picks today.  And if you enjoyed this Seattle Mariners Tampa Bay Rays prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily MLB projections and previews.

Seattle Mariners: 34-52 (-22.9 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 228-202 (-12.3 units) on the moneyline in all games. 98-116 (-29.4 units) on the moneyline in road games. 26-18 OVER when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Tampa Bay Rays: 112-79 (+18.1 units) on the moneyline when the money line is -100 to -150. 41-29 (+6.4 units) on the moneyline at home when the total is 7 to 7.5. 151-144 (+7.8 units) on the moneyline vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or less. 23-15 OVER when the total is 7 to 7.5.

Seattle Mariners:  J. Rodriguez (CF) Seven Day IL - Head. R. Refsnyder (DH) Ten Day IL - Knee. W. Wilson (3B) Sixty Day IL - Thumb. M. Brash (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat. C. Criswell (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. B. Donovan (3B) Ten Day IL - Groin. C. Vargas (RP) Sixty Day IL - Lat. L. Evans (SP) Sixty Day IL - Arm.

Tampa Bay Rays:  S. Matz (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Ankle. J. Heasley (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Lux (LF) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. J. Scholtens (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Wrist. J. Fraley (RF) Ten Day IL - Groin. R. Pepiot (SP) Sixty Day IL - Hip. E. Uceta (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. S. Wilson (RP) Sixty Day IL - Back. M. Rodriguez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Offensively, we had a lot of chances. Had a couple of hits in the first, had some baserunners on. The first through fifth inning, we had chances, got the traffic we wanted, just couldn’t get anyone in. A frustrating night offensively, for sure.” - Dan Wilson after his team’s loss against the Marlins in their game on Wednesday.

“Everything he did tonight was pretty spectacular.” - Kevin Cash after his team’s win against the Yankees in their game on Wednesday.

J.P. Crawford (L) 3B

Randy Arozarena (R) LF

Dominic Canzone (L) DH

Cal Raleigh (S) C

Josh Naylor (L) 1B

Luke Raley (L) RF

Cole Young (L) 2B

Victor Robles (R) CF

Colt Emerson (L) SS

Yandy Díaz (R) DH

Jonathan Aranda (L) 1B

Junior Caminero (R) 3B

Victor Mesa Jr. (L) CF

Ryan Vilade (R) RF

Chandler Simpson (L) LF

Ben Williamson (R) 2B

Taylor Walls (S) SS

Nick Fortes (R) C

Batting Average:  Randy Arozarena (.286)

Hits:  Julio Rodríguez (89)

Home Runs:  Luke Raley (14)

RBI:  Cole Young (42)

Stolen Bases:  Randy Arozarena (19)

Wins:  George Kirby (7)

Saves:  Andrés Muñoz (16)

ERA:  Matt Brash (0.54)

Batting Average:  Yandy Díaz (.328)

Hits:  Yandy Díaz (108)

Home Runs:  Junior Caminero (27)

RBI:  Jonathan Aranda (61)

Stolen Bases:  Chandler Simpson (22)

Wins:  Shane McClanahan (8)

Saves:  Bryan Baker (25)

ERA:  Michael Grove (0.00)

Managers:

Seattle Mariners: Dan Wilson (3rd season)

Tampa Bay Rays: Kevin Cash (12th season)